Tuesday, December 21, 2021

ENERGY PRICE SHOCK (PT II) - IS SHRINKING SUPPLY CUSHION AND PRICE FIXING THE REAL PROBLEM?

The Ministry of Trade and Industry explained the unprecendented surge in spot prices in the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) in October which led to the closure of 5 retailers, is strictly exogenous. These external causes are beyond our control and the government is working its best to mitigate the hardship for consumers. Let's unpack the official explanation and try to make sense of a complicated industry.

Second Minister of MTI Tan See Leng. explained in Parliament Nov 1 that it was a perfect storm of surge in demand as economies begin to recover following the easing of restrictions of the pandemic, lower generation of wind and solar power in Europe due to unusual weather events and  lower coal production, gas production outages in the world, countries building up fuel inventories for the winter.

Mr Tan explained everything except the elephant in the room. Joe Biden's kamikaze energy policy that pulled the rug on the fracking industry caused the US from being a net exporter of natural gas to an importer of gas and oil. Energy commodity prices immediately began to rise from the day he took office. The recent meeting of oil ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC countries ended Oct 4 with these oil producers rebuffing Biden's plea for increased output. This sent a strong signal to the energy market and oil/gas spot prices spiked immediately. The upward pressure was exacerbated by diminished inventories which has been almost fully drawn. Remember all those idle and fully-loaded tankers lying idle off Singapore waters and many other ports 2 years ago? They are all gone.

Natural gas (NG) are priced differently depending on the region. In our part of the world, gas is indexed to the price of oil. A rise in crude oil price causes NG prices to rise. This has immediate impact on Singapore electricity prices because 95% of supply comes from gas-fired plants. So was the October rise in oil prices the cause for the spike in USEP?


Chart 1
USEP is the Uniform Singapore Electric Price. This is the average price for a 30 minute supply of electricity that power  generation companies (gencos) feed into the grid. The Wholesale Electricity Price (WEP) is the USEP + a small admin fee. The chart shows the USEP is very closely and positively related to the price of crude oil except in Oct 2021 where the relationship was markedly different in terms of degrees. USEP spiked by more than 400% compared to a 20% increase in oil prices. Thus demand and supply factors for crude oil was not the main reason for the spike in wholesale electricity spot prices.

Singapore power plants are 95% gas-fired. The fuel is 70% Piped Natural Gas (PNG) and 30% Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). PNG is on long term contracts with operators of Malaysian and Indonesian NG fields in the Natuna Seas. PNG supply is expected to decrease due to reduced deposits in the Natuna gas fields and part of the Indonesian contract runs out in 2023. LNG are shipped in by tankers and de-gassified at Singapore LNG Terminal. However, our energy supply is not at immediate risk. Security of supply and gas storage levels will be met with increased capacity at the SLNG Terminal and planned offshore LNG Terminal.

Whilst long term supply security is monitored and addressed by EMA, hiccups in NG supply can happen at anytime. For example, outages at Indonesian gas fields caused a supply shortage in July, and currently, low pressure of the Indonesian piped gas is causing supply hiccups. Short term NG supply hiccups are met by the CCGT plants switching to alternative liquid fuels such as diesel. These periods are usually accompanied by spikes in the USEP. The NG pricing mechanism is indexed to oil prices, its supply is not a direct determinant factor to increases in gencos' production cost.

The huge surge in electricity price in October is felt everywhere such as the UK which MTI pointed out in poor consolation. UK electricity prices increased a mere 21% compared to Singapore which spiked close to 200%.  In Singapore 5 retailers have been forced to exit. In many other countries having basically similar open electricity market structures like Singapore and facing same price and supply pressures, no marketer or utility has been forced out. Clearly, something else apart from the exogenous forces is responsible for the unprecedented upsurge in the WEM spot prices in Singapore.


Chart 2
Wholesale electricity spot prices is characterised by its volatility as gencos compete to auction their production every 30 minutes. After the OPEC meeting Oct 4, the extreme volatility of USEP can be seen in chart 2. On Dec 2, the USEP came within whiskers of the EMA regulation cap for USEP of S4,500/mWh.

In the electricity business, demand is more or less predictable in the short term and it is inelastic to price. Supply, on the other hand, has immediate short term challenges in terms of planned and unplanned plant outages, fuel supply, and network reliability. This supply environment is dynamic throughout the day and night which causes volatility in the 30 minute supply cycle.Pricing is extremely elastic in response to supply cushion.


Fig 1
Fig 1 illustrates the supply cushion.  A capacity of 1,000 mW means at 100% efficiency, the plants can generate 1,000 mWh of electricity in an hour.  In a 30 mins period, it can supply 500 mWh.  Due to outages, whether planned maintenance or unplanned, it can offer only 480 mWh for the next 30 mins. Only 450 mWh is accepted to meet demand and reserves. 30 mWh is rejected which is the surplus to needs. This is the supply cushion which is 6% which is dynamic throughout the 24x7 cycle.


Chart 3
Chart 3 shows USEP has a reverse relationship to the supply cushion.  In 2021 the decrease in supply cushion has seen an increase in USEP. Given demand remains more or less level, supply cushion is affected by capacity and outages.  Whilst fuel plays a big part in production cost, gencos' price themselves according to the competition. A big factor in their pricing strategy is how they view the level of supply cushion. 

Massive over-capacity in the past caused huge supply cushion situation in the industry. This in turn forced gencos to price themselves low. The situation was exacerbated in 2012-2015. To reduce dependency on PNG, Electricity Market Authority (EMA) established the LNG Terminal so tankers can ship in LNG and degassification done locally. To promote the use of LNG, new CCGT plants were offered LNG vesting contracts. This attracted 2 new plants into the market, one of which was Hyflux's Tuas Spring plant. Market capacity expanded massively. The over supply resulted in under-priced energy enjoyed by unappreciative consumers ignorant of the situation.

The over-capacity is not sustainable in the long run for the industry as gencos are not profitable and insolvency is unavoidable. Hyflux is in deep financial trouble from the git go. The government has taken the stand capital investments are commercial decisions. It seems gencos are bidding time and letting natural attrition play out as older plants are retired.


Chart 4
Chart 4 shows the over-capacity situation. By 2018 older plants were getting retired. There was a 1.1 mW reduction of capacity in 2019 and a further 0.5 mW in 2020. A further retirement of another 0.5 mW was planned in 2021. All this capacity reduction significantly lowered the supply cushion. As at Q3 of 2021, the planned reduction of 0.5 mW did not seem to have taken place. Either this reduction occured in Q4, or expectation of this plant retirement played a crucial role in the pricing strategy of the gencos.

Fuel prices of course impact production cost. But it is the supply cushion that cause volatility. The bigger the supply cushion, the more competitive the offered prices. The lower the supply cushion the more tendency for collective market power to be exercised.  Apparently, the fuel price surge on Oct 4 coupled with the expected reduction of 0.5 mW capacity, caused the massive spike in spot prices in the WEM. By December, the gas price surge phenomenon has more or less stabilised, but the WEM spot prices remain erratic with record high spikes. This is yet another proof that supply cushion is the underlying causation.

Is what we are seeing purely the nature of open competition in a new era of normalised supply environment or did collusion and price fixing take place? Going forward, is this the new normal where gencos can wield their new found market power? As long ago as 2018, looking at the supply forecast, Mr Tan had warned of future electricity price increases due to the normalisation of capacity. By that, he meant when the industry has a power capacity that is just right to supply the needs of the economy at a level slightly above the reserves level. That's when the Short Run Marginal Cost of power generation will be close to the Long Run Marginal Cost. (Explanation of LRMC v SRMC is in an earlier blog here.) In that scenario, as I pointed out in earlier blog, the retail electricity price model of discounts on tariff will no longer be viable. As is also the case in the current Q4.



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Saturday, December 11, 2021

ENERGY PRICE SHOCK (PT I) - WHO WINS, WHO LOOSES


Losses to consumers

Someone by the name of Vivi recently posted on Facebook lamenting on the huge jump in her October/November electricity bill from Singapore Power. This is apparently an account on a pool plan, ie buying at wholesale prices, which are ordinarily very volatile with prices changing every 30 minutes. With the current upswing in prices, Vivi was shocked at the S$0.5153/ kWh SP has billed her. All those who are buying from the pool, whether through SP like Vivi, or through other retailers, or as direct participants in the Wholesale Electricity Market, have been hit with a jump of 200% in energy cost.

Retailers exit, consumers get cancelled

Many have asked - Do retailers have the right to cancel their contracts? Unfortunately, YES. Retailer contracts carry a Retailer Of Last Resort (ROLR) event clause under which when they exit the business, they can cancel their contracts with consumers who either re-contract with another retailer, or transfer to SP. The ROLR procedure seeks to ensure consumers do not experience supply disruption.

Under retailers' term of contract, how customers will be charged by SP depends on whether they will be classified as contestable or non-contestable. SP charges non-contestable consumers at the applicable tariff rate, and contestable consumers at wholesale price. This matters a lot as the energy cost in the Q4 tariff is currently way below prevailing wholesale spot prices.

The eligibility to be classified as non-contestable is defined in The Electricity Act (Cap 89A) Electricity (Contestable Consumers) Regulations 2018.

Consumers loose out under the October ROLR event

When consumers re-contract due to ROLR event, they may benefit or get disadvantaged. It all depends on whether they are transferring from a higher to a lower rate or the other way round. In the current ROLR event, consumers loose out since their retailer contracts were all signed in earlier months when rates were much lower. This is especially so for those who had signed up for low fixed term plans previously.

In this ROLR transfer, SP put household consumers on regulated tariff. Commercial and industrial consumers are based on a capped load - those below monthly average of 4,000 kWh are put on tariff plans and those above 4,000 kWh at pool plan (wholesale prices). This appears to be in accordance with EMA market practice code amended in 2018/2019. However, it seems to be a shift of goalposts and at odds with retailer contract terms.

Those transferred consumers on pool plans are grappling with the same price shock as Vivi when they received SP invoices in November.  Those on tariff plan have a short reprieve as the Q4 tariff is still on a low energy cost of S$0.1788 /kWh. Like everyone else on tariff plans, whether with SP or retailers, they will see a huge increase in their bills for January with a higher Q1 tariff.

Does SP profit from such big increase in electricity prices

ABSOLUTELY NOT. I have explained in numerous blogs (check the archieve) that SP makes no profits on electricity sales. It is simply purchasing electricity from wholesale market ON BEHALF of their customers. These purchases are fully hedged. Whether the wholesale spot prices go up or down makes no difference to SP. As MSSL licencee SP makes some profits on the metering services. The billion $ profits that SP Group makes come from Transmission Services and overseas operations.

Potential Q4 losses for generators with Vesting Contracts (VC)

VCs are hedge contracts between SP and power generation companies (gencos). SP uses the VC to hedge their purchases. When the wholesale price is lower than the VC price, SP pays to the counterparty gencos the difference. Gencos pay SP if wholesale price is higher. (The wholesale spot price is the Uniform Singapore Electricity Price or USEP + a small admin fee).


Since 2011/2012, the Singapore Electricity Market has been one where the Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) curve has been constantly higher than the Short Run Marginal Cost (SRMC) curve. This is due to substantial excess capacity where generators price themselves low in order to win despatch for their plants. In this scenario, gencos are making losses and this is not sustainable for the industry in the long run because it leads to insolvency for power generators.

VC price approximates the energy cost component of the tariff and commonly referred as LRMC for the Singapore electricity market. The USEP in economic parlance is the SRMC. With the massive excess capacity since 2011/2012, VC tends higher than USEP. This has meant that SP has been a payer for all the VC that cumulatively totals billions of $ all these years. All these are borne by SP's non-contestable customers in the pricing mechanism embeded in the tariff. It also meant that gencos who had VC were able to recoup some of their losses in the wholesale spot market.

This all changed in Q4. With the massive spike in wholesale spot prices, the SRMC curve is now higher than the LRMC. The average USEP for October was S$491.24 /mWh compared to VC of S$170.50 /mWh. Under the VC, gencos now pay SP the price difference between the higher USEP and the VC price. Based on October figures, I estimate the cash payment by gencos for the vesting contracts in Q4 is about S$491.23-S$170.50 = S$320.74 /mWh x 2,200,000 mWh = S$706m. Does this represent actual losses to gencos? We don't know since we have no idea how they hedge their exposures. 

Does SP make money under the VC

VC are hedging instruments that SP contracts with gencos to cover the load of their non-contestable customers. The gains or losses of these hedges are borne by SP customers which are embeded in the tariff.

SP non-contestable customers are under tariff plan. The load is fully hedged so either way the wholesale spot prices move has no impact on SP. All gains or losses arising from the VC are for account of their non-contestable customers which are embeded in the tariff.

For the years since 2011/2012, the SRMC curve has been below the LRMC curve (USEP below the tariff), it means SP has been a payer to gencos for the VC which cumulatively have amounted to billion $ payouts. Did SP loose money here? NO. Because they bought at lower wholesale prices and sold to their customers at higher tariff prices. The hedging losses they pay to gencos is compensated by their cash transactions at higher tariff rates their customers pay. In effect, SP's non-contestable customers have been paying for this billion $ hedging costs. This partly answers the question frequently asked "why retailers can charge lower then SP?".

So for Q4, with the hedge in favour of SP and gencos having to pay up for the VC losses, does SP get to keep the profits? YES. Recall SP is now purchasing at very high wholesale prices but billing their customers at lower tariff of S$0.1788 /kWhr. The profits on the VC cancels out the losses on their cash transactions.  SP's hedging gains in effect flow to their customers because whilst the wholesale market is boiling hot, these customers are enjoying low energy price of S$0.1788 /kWh. 

Potential Q4 losses for SP

Under normal circumstances, the volatility of the wholesale spot market has no impact on SP since the load pertaining to their non-contestable customers are fully hedged by VC. This is not the case for Q4.

VCs are arranged for the quarter ahead. Thus essentially in Q4, SP has 2 sets of customers on the tariff plan. (A) are customers on their books before Q4, and (B) customers transferred from failed retailers. SP purchases at wholesale S$0.5153/kWh (average) and sells to (A) and (B) customers at tariff S$0.1788/kWh. The loads for (A) are hedged in the VC contracts, thus the higher cost of purchases are offset by gains in the VC contracts. (B) is not hedged as they were onboarded during the quarter. Thus SP will be out of cash by S$0.5153 - S$0.1788 (S$$0.3365) for every kWh purchased.

Suppose all the 140,000 affected households revert to SP, which I think most likely is the case. Average household consumption is 400 kWh per month making a total of 56,000,000 kWh. I estimate SP will be hit by a possible loss of S$ 57m for Q4 arising from the ROLR event (56,000,000 x S$0.3365 x 3 months).

Losses to electricity retailers

EMA regulations require retailers to hedge at least 50% of their contracts with electricity futures. With such high jumps of prices in the wholesale electricity spot market, retailers with even 50% of hedged positions will suffer massive losses. Retailers that remain standing are obviously substantially, if not 100%, hedged. The 5 retailers that exit, which includes a seasoned player like iSwitch, have obviously left a huge cash position unhedged. By exiting and transferring their customers to SP under ROLR event, they cut the lost making short cash positions. If they retain the hedge contracts, they make huge profits on the long futures position. I'm not too sure how this works out under the EMA market practice in ROLR event.

Going forward, this ROLR event most definitely has dented consumer confidence with independent retailers that are not owned by gencos. These retailers have  a very small market share of less that 10%. It has been difficult for these small independent retailers to build market share. With the lost of confidence, it will be considerably more difficult to acquire new accounts.  It is unlikely they can ever gain scale to improve efficiency and innovate.

Conclusion

SP customers on tariff plans and retailer customers on discount-to-tariff plans have still not yet personally felt the impact of the energy price shock. Come January when the Q1 tariff is announced, the discontent will be loud. By February when people have their January bills, internet and coffee shop conversations will be iron hot that need to be well managed.

One thing is for sure. If the significantly higher energy prices are here to stay, as it most likely will be the case, then everybody losses as inflationary pressure will trigger down to consumer prices by January.

Note: I blog on topics with viewpoints not commonly seen in the public domain. If you enjoy this, please re-visit in a few days time for Part II where I'll discuss Second Minister of Trade and Industry Mr Tan See Leng's Nov 1 speech in parliament on 'unprecedented storm' in the energy market. It's basically me trying to place the finger on where the problem lies.



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Monday, December 6, 2021

IT'S SO DIFFICULT TO SAY I'M NOT VACCINATED


When asked a simple question "Have you been vaccinated?", Mr Ugur Sahin, CEO of bioNtech, the company that developed the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine, he squirmed, obfuscated, befuddled, diverted, deflected, circumbulated, anything but answer a kindergarden question.

Obviously he has no confidence in his own vaccine. Three, four jabs for Thee but none for Me.

Actually, he has mentioned why he is not taking the vaccine. Did you miss it? At about 3.05 mark, he said German law makes it illegal for him and employees to take part in clinical trials. Verzeihung, excuse me. You don't need to be in the experimental or control group can't you? Or are we all guinea pigs in an international clinical trial involving billions of people?

What about his company? What is the corporate position for the vaccine that they developed? Well, in their 2019 annual filing with the SEC (Securities Exchange Commission), the company made some startling self-flagellation.

"To date, there has never been a Phase 3 trial for an mRNA-based product or a commercialized mRNA-based product. Our product candidates that appear promising in the early phases of development may fail to advance, experience delays in the clinic or clinical holds, or fail to reach the market for many reasons, including:
• discovery efforts aimed at identifying potential immunotherapies may not be successful;
• nonclinical or preclinical study results may show product candidates to be less effective than desired or have harmful or problematic side effects;
• clinical trial results may show the product candidates to be less effective than expected, including a failure to meet one or more endpoints or have unacceptable side effects or toxicities;"

That's not much of confidence there I would say.

"Currently, mRNA is considered a gene therapy product by the FDA. Unlike certain gene therapies that irreversibly alter cell DNA and may cause certain side effects, mRNA-based medicines are designed not to irreversibly change cell DNA."

I like to slap the next fact-checker that tells me the mRNA is not gene therapy.  "Are designed" not to change cell DNA is not the same as saying our vaccine "does not" change cell DNA. It's designed not to, but they don't really know if it will, affect the DNA. 

  "As a result, we cannot be assured that adverse effects of our product candidates will not be uncovered when a significantly larger number of patients are exposed to the product candidate. Further, any clinical trials may not be sufficient to determine the effect and safety consequences of taking our product candidates over a multi-year period."

What does it mean here? They are not sure of adverse effects and long term effects of the vaccines. So are the vaccines safe or not? The right way to answer this, having learnt from the CEO, and to ensure not receiving a POFMA from MOH, is to say that the vaccines are safe since the whole world knows it better than bioNtech. 

The SEC document can be found here (above extracts are found in pages 15-17)

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Wednesday, November 24, 2021

High Incidences Of Stillbirths Reported - What's Happening?


There has been reports from Scotland and Canada of a serious spike in stillborn babies. These events are not newsworthy to mainstream media all over the world. Why is that so? Chances are you have'nt heard of it.

Investigation launched into abnormal spike in newborn baby deaths in Scotland ... Herald, Scotland

In September, 21 infants died within 28 days after delivery in Scotland. This breached the country's upper control limit which indicated an abnormal causation. It recorded 4.9 deaths per 1,000 which is a level never seen in the last 40 years. The authorities are investigating and no further information is provided as to whether the mothers have been vaccinated or contracted covid.

Stillbirths Exploding Across Canada in Fully Vaccinated Mothers .... Bright Light News

Doulas (bet you don't know this word -- these are women, typically without formal obstetric training, who are employed to provide guidance and support to a pregnant woman during labour, who stay by the side of the patients they are assigned to.) reported an alarming increase of stillborn babies in British Columbia, Canada. Lions Gate Hospital in Vanouver recently had 16 stillbirths within 24 hours.  Here's Dr. Daniel Nagase talking about these 16 deaths and another 86 stillbirths in Waterloo, Ontario in a 6 month period. The mothers of the 86 deaths in Waterloo were all fully vaccinated.



Generally, most countries have managed to lower the rate of stillborn babies very considerably over the years due to improved health services and technology.  Most common causes of neonatal death are infection, prematurity, and suffocation, but factors such as smoking during pregnancy or disruption to early intervention services including health visiting and midwifery also increase the risk.

Governments and the mainstream media do not want the slightest hint of vaccination to be associated in this development. No doubt lots of possibilities may be conjured, including the effect of the covid itself.  Coming during the pandemic, the causation is either the vaccine or the virus.

Viral infection by an expectant mother can have adverse pregnancy outcomes and birth defects. Viruses very rarely cross the placenta barrier, but if they do, they can cause severe defects and fetal death, thus miscarriages and stillbirths. 

As for mRNA and adenovirus vector vaccines, I blogged on this here :Safety Of mRNA Vaccine For Pregnant Women Based On Study With Wrong Premise - New Study Says Risk Extremely High.  Pfizer knew the spike proteins do not remain in the deltoid muscles where the vaccine is injected. Japanese scientists have shown the spike proteins end up in certain parts of the body including reproductive organs. What are the long term consequences, nobody knows. But the vaccines are very safe, as our governments have told us, who in turn were told by Big Pharma.

Is this the manifestation of explosion of pregnancy problems as predicted by many scientists who warned about the dangers of the new technology vaccines? Form your own opinions or wait for results of investigations which will never be published.


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Friday, November 19, 2021

Covid Cases High In Highly Vaccinated, And Low in Lowly Vaccinated Countries!

Here are some of the world's headlines. Perplexed is an understatement as Covid case surges in countries with high vaccination rates do not make sense. Are these one off cases or is there a pattern? If it is a pattern, what conclusions can be drawn?

"COVID-19: Cases on the rise. Public urged to avoid large gatherings" (Gibraltar - 100% fully vaccinated).. 12 Nov 2021
"Pfizer Child Vaccine Clears Hurdle; Irish Surge: Virus Update" (Ireland - 75,4% fully vaccinated) ... 2 Nov 2021
"COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?" (99.5% of adults fully vaccinated) ... 6 Nov 2021.
Vermont (US State) has the highest vaccination rate in the country (72%). So why are cases surging?"  ABC, 12 Nov 2021
"Singapore reaches 80 pc double-vaccination rate but life is not returning to normal"  ABC, 13 Sep 2021

Slowly and reluctantly the health authorities are getting round to the reality -- the vaccines don't work. Bill Gates and Dr Fauci have recently admitted, at last. Well, they are not actually saying vaccines don't work. The excuse is the vaccines wane in 2-6 months, a claim never supported by any hard evidence.

Is there any evidence that countries that achieved high vaccination rates have high cases? I did a deep dive and plotted the scatter graph based on data as at 17 Nov 2021. 

If the vaccines work, the scatter-graph of all countries should show a distribution similar in the chart here. The countries will mostly cluster in the 2 yellow coloured quadrants. The left-top quadrant are countries with HR (high vax rate) and LC (low cases) and the right-bottom are countries with LR (low vax rate) and HC (high cases). This is just simple logic. The HR-LC and the LR-HC quadrants would tend to be the normal distribution to be expected if vaccination works. Where there is a high rate of vaccination, the cases ought to be low, and vice versa, where the vaccination rates are low, the cases ought to be high.

The situation as at 17 Nov 2021 defies simple logic.



The world average cases per capita basis is 3,239 per 100,000. The weighted average fully vaccinated rate is 41.34%. The chart is divided into 4 quadrants based on these 2 criteria.

Surprisingly, there are 2 big clusters in the HR-HC and the LR-LC quadrants. These are anomalies.

HR-HC quadrant:
106 countries have fully vaccinated above world average of 41.34%. Of the HR (High Rate) countries, 82 or 77% have high cases (HC). The total number of countries making the chart is 205. Of these 205 countries, 38% are in the HR-HC quadrant.This makes a good case for the claim that countries with higher vaccination rates have higher cases. The top 8 countries with the highest vaccination rates in the world have High Cases. Gibraltar has 100% adults fully vaccinated yet it has a HC rate of 19,482 cases per 100,000. The Seychelles has the 2nd highest HC rate in the world of 22,909 cases per 100,000 despite a fully vaccinated rate of 78.6%.

Singapore is the 3rd highest vaccinated country in the world with 86.4% fully vaccinated. The case rate is 4,046 per 100,000, a borderline case in the HR-HC quadrant. Singapore is moving fast to the ignonimous right in the HR-HC quadrant. If current trend of new daily cases of 3,400 continues, in 2 months time, Singapore will be where Malaysia is today at 7,747 cases per 100,000..

LR-LC quadrant:
The so-called African enigma is apparent in this quadrant. Onchocerciasis or river blindness, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted through repeated bites by blackflies of the genus Simulium. This is prevalent in many countries in Africa, especially the sub-tropical regions where the disease is endemic. Ivermectin is used widely to control this disease. This quadrant is populated by many African states. All 31 countries where onchocerciasis is endemic are in this quadrant.  This fuels the suggestion that Ivermectin use may have something to do with it.

Why COVID-19 is not so widely spread in Africa? How does Ivermectin affect it? Rodrigo Guerrero et al did a study on the differences between APOC (states that took part in the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control) and non-APOC countries. (Published Dec 2020 Read Here). Their conclusion:
"The incidence in mortality rates and number of cases (from Covid) is significantly lower among the APOC countries compared to non-APOC countries. That a mass public health preventive campaign against COVID-19 may have taken place, inadvertently, in some African countries with massive community ivermectin use is an attractive hypothesis."

Hisaya Tanioka et al did a study on the African enigma and their report was publiched Mar 2021(Read here). Their conclusion: "The morbidity and mortality in the onchocerciasis endemic countries are lesser than those in the non-endemic ones. The community-directed onchocerciasis treatment with ivermectin is the most reasonable explanation for the decrease in morbidity and fatality rate in Africa. In areas where ivermectin is distributed to and used by the entire population, it leads to a significant reduction in mortality."

India and Indonesia, the two countries whose health system almost collapsed under the onslaught of the Delta strain, switched to Ivermectin and very quickly brought the situation under control. Is it a coincidence these countries are also in this LR-LC quadrant?


(Note: Onchocerciasis endemic countries are highlighted in yellow)



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Monday, November 15, 2021

PFIZER EMPLOYS DECEIT IN VACCINE FOR CHILDREN YOU PROBABLY AREN'T EVEN AWARE OF


US - 13-year-old dies in sleep after getting COVID-19 vaccine; CDC investigating
Germany - 12-Year Old Child Dies 2 Days After Receiving The Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine
Thailand - Teen dies from blood clots after second jab
On 10 May 2021 FDA approved the use of the emergency vaccines for children ages 12 to 15. In super quick time 18 May, like a sheep, MOH followed suit (See Chanel News Asia). Singapore HSA analysed the data in super efficient 7 days and considered the test vaccines safe for children. Somehow the extremely low infection rate of this age group justifies the various risks of vaccine adverse reactions already well documented. I mentioned in previous blogs that Pfizer's website for Comirnaty did not recommend its use for children in this age group. Pfizer was saying use their no-liability Pfizer-BioNtech Covid19 vaccine label for the kids but not the Comirnaty label. Why that anomaly never bothered MOH at all is a wonder. Pfizer has since revamped the website.

23 June 2021 MOH announced it was going to receive the first batch of FDA approved vaccine Comirnaty. (See Straits Times.) On 23 Aug 2021 FDA approved Comirnaty. The first thing I want to ask MOH is how on Earth did they arrange for the first batch of Comirnaty in May when the FDA approved it 3 months later? Does MOH have some crystal ball or is there some international collusion going on?

I have explained in previous blogs that Comirnaty is a scam, a US political ploy to fool the masses to vaccinate. There is no Comirnaty in the market. Pfizer are'nt so stupid to market Comirnaty where they have liabilities when they can sell the same formulation under the label Pfizer-BioNtech Covid 19 vaccine which carries no liabilities as it's sold under emergency use. MOH cannot show us the Comirnaty that they supposedly received. Why does the Singapore government collaborate in the US trickery?

Since Comirnaty has been approved, can the MOH explain why are they still using other untested vaccines under emergency use? If an approved drug for a disease is available, why use other untested options?

In the US there is a court case going on currently. More than 350,000 US Army personnel are suing the Secretary of Defence for the unconstitutional vaccine mandate. In the course of the proceedings, it was revealed soldiers were jabbed with Pfizer-BioBtech Covid-19 vaccine, but recorded as Comirnaty-vaccinated. MOH has overcome this problem by a sleigh of hand. It simply uses one definition Pfizer-BioNtech Covid-19/Comirnaty. To MOH it does'nt matter which one you take because they are the same formulation. True, but the legal status is different. If you take Comirnaty, you may want to sue Pfizer if you sustain any injury. The truth of the matter is, there is no Comirnaty, and MOH knows it. Why all this trickery in both US and Singapore?

When they come for your 5 year olds, for goodness sake, make your decision with full knowledge which MOH does not offer.

In October 2021, the FDA approved the use of vaccines for children in age group 5-11. Good Lord, despite the fact infection rate is even lower in this group, will MOH kowtow and follow the US? Precedence says YES. There is no more independent thinking.

Pfizer prepared a document for the FDA Advisory Committee Meeting on 26 Oct 2021 to approve the Pfizer vaccine for children aged 5-11. It is a 39 page report (Read (FDA website here) In this document, Pfizer slipped in the following by stealth:

" To provide a vaccine with an improved stability profile, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for use in children 5-11 years of age uses tromethamine buffer instead of the phosphate buffered saline (PBS) as used in the previous formulation and excludes sodium chloride and potassium chloride.">

As blood clot is a high risk side effect for younger people, Pfizer has added a new ingredient called tromethamine. This is a drug to prevent cardiac arrests. It is a sort of blood thinner. If you send your children to take a vaccine against a virus for which their natural immunity is very well capable of handling, and have to inject something to prevent cardiac arrest, a condition which they do not have, does that not sound incredulously silly and dim witted?

So when they come for your five-year olds, consider that adverse effects of tromethamine may include respiratory depression, local irritation, tissue inflammation, injection site infection, febrile response, chemical phlebitis, venospasm, hypervolemia, IV thrombosis, extravasation (with possible necrosis and sloughing of tissues), transient decreases in blood glucose concentrations, hypoglycemia, and hepatocellular necrosis with infusion via low-lying umbilical venous catheters -- take your pick. On top of this, don't discount all the other known adverse effects of mRNA vaccines.

You might want to ask MOH if they are aware of the use of tromethamine and do they object? You might also ask MOH how are they going to administer the vaccine? Tromethamine on its own is intravenously administered. The mRNA vaccine is injected into the deltoid muscles. What are the consequences of injecting into the muscles a drug which is supposed to be given intravenously? MOH? Anyone?

Do your own research. You owe that to your children.


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Friday, November 12, 2021

Baking Soda And Covid - Everything To Gain, Nothing To Loose

A couple of years back, I passed by a Filipino couple pulling some grass from the side walk. It instantly clicked on me what they were looking for. For years I had been interested in finding out the name of the particular grass. So I enquired if they knew the name and what it's for. They asked me first what I knew about the grass, so I told them of an incident long ago. I was doing incamp reservist training at the time. Over the weekend off, I visited my mother. She noticed my awkward sitting position and I explained the damn bleeding piles I was having. (People like me soldier on, we don't go get medical leave at the slightest excuse). To which she said in a matter-of-fact way, why did'nt I tell her earlier. Mom asked me to wait as she left the house and returned a few minutes later with what looked like a bunch of ordinary cowgrass in her hand. She brewed a concoction for me which I took just to placate her as I had not the slightest tiny bit of faith that something from a cow's menu could solve my nasty butt problem. To my pleasant surprise, the very next day, the bleeding stopped. On the following day, the piles were in recession. The Filipino lady confirmed the theraupetic use and shared that she learnt about it from her previous Taiwanese boss. The name of the grass is Paragis.

Grandma's remedies really worked in the past. I can tell of how my mom pulled a 3 inch protruding rusty nail off my feet and patched the wound with cactus pulps and no tetanus visited me. How my dad took care of some nasty wounds that was festing with maggots using nothing but some leaves mashed with porridge. And more.

In the covid pandemic, there are those who tested positive and sent back to home quarantine with just some panadols. In the early and mild stages, some therapeutic protocoals would have helped greatly. As Ivermectin is denied, many are left clueless what to do except wait for the infection to get full blown and then admit to hospital. Some resort to TCM (traditional Chinese medicine), most just take on whatever to build their immune system.

Louis Pasteur laid the foundations of hygiene, public health and much of modern medicine in the mid 1980s. The Pasteur-world view sees diseases as caused by micro-organisms - virus, bacteria, fungi. Whilst modern medicine has helped us tremendously in the past 140 years or so, it has also led to toxicity from drug dependency, The naturopath-world view rejects evidence-based medicine for natural remedies to help the body heal itself.  Naturopathic medicine has been around for thousands of years. There are much ancient wisdom that lies untapped.

Baking soda, which is sodium bicarbonate, first came to be used as food ingredients in 1846. Grandmas soon learnt that it has medicinal values for poison ivy, leucorrhoea, lumbago, colds and flu. Those who are having a mild symptom of covid may wish to consider using baking soda, together with whatever theraupetic drugs.  Take as follows :

1. By steam inhalation - Boil a pot of water and pour 2 or 3 big spoonful of baking soda in and stir well. Inhale the steam for a few minutes. Be careful not to put the face too near the solution when steaming hot. Do this twice a day for 7 days.

2. By ingestion - Pour 1/2 teaspoonful of baking soda into a glass of cool water and drink it. It is tasteless. To make it more palatable, squeeze a bit of lemon. Take 6 times on day one (2 hour intervals), 4 times on day 2, and once daily in the morning after that till well.

Our body cellular activities maintain pH level at certain optimal levels. Different parts of the body has different levels - eg the skin pH is about 5+, blood is 7.4. The environment, things we consume, lifestyle, radiation, etc has an acidic effect on our body. An acidic body is a factory for viruses which is why the pH level of the body must be maintained. Sodium bicarbonate assists in raising the alkalinity of the body. Baking soda is the easiest and cheapest source of sodium bicarbonate you can lay your hands on. The Arm & Hammer brand claims to use pure sodium bicarbonate.

If taking baking soda sounds queer to you, understand that it is sodium bicarbornate which is one of the natural essential minerals our body needs. It's as natural as taking bananas for the potassium. If you go buy an alkaline drink, it's just a drink with baking soda added. Some folks spend thousands of dollars on a machine to connect to the pipe to produce alkaline water. It's the same thing. I have been taking one glass of water with 1/3 teaspoonful baking soda as a prophylactic for some time now. I notice I have better sleep now whereas before, I used to wake up every 1 or 2 hours. It seems also to have a beneficial effect on gastrointestinal upsets. I have a week GI issue having tummy upsets often, now I don't need the Poh Chay Yee or Dhamotil pills.

Before science-addicted skeptics show their disdain, a little known fact may be useful. Sodium Bicarbonate has been used as a treatment measure in pathological respiratory conditions such as cystic fibrosis and chlorine gas inhalations. Its safety, tolerability and efficacy in improvement in those clinical conditions have been well established. In the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed 50 million people, sodium bicarbonate was eventually used as a therapy. It was applied intravenously. (Read Standford University article here).

A peer-reviewed study was published by Kshitij Mody, Welcare Hospital, India on 19 Mar 2021 which claimed a statistically significant reduction (74%) in severity of symptoms of mild to moderate cases of covid-19 treated with 8.4% sodium bicarbonate steam inhalation as an adjuvant to standard covid treatment protocol. (Read here).

There are known warnings to those suffering high blood pressure and renal problems to avoid high levels of sodium bicarbonate. However, a recent study by Kalani L Raphael et el was published in 2016 in Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology  (Read here and here). This study showed a surprising finding that having sufficient levels of sodium bicarbonate, or bicarbonate in your body fluids can reduce your chances of an early death. Low levels of sodium bicarbonate can be linked to an increased risk for premature death by 24 percent. Sodium bicarbonate is the main buffer for metabolic, dietary, environmental and respiratory acidic waste.


And finally, here's a first hand account. Mrs Edna Boone was about 10 years old when the Spanish Flu hit. Her township was hit very badly. People were sick and dying in her community. The living had to help look after the sick, like providing food. Her father farmed a plot of land they had with potatoes to feed the neighbours. Edna was tasked with bringing food to the homes of the sick. Everyone one in the community had family members who perished. All except Edna's household, Everyone in her family, including workers, seemed immune. Listen at about 4.35 segment where Edna attributed her family's habit of taking a cup of baking soda water every morning that probably spared their family.

The video was from an interview by Ann Brantley of the Alabama Department of Public Health on 28 Jan 2008 when Edna was 100 years old. Longer life with baking soda!

PS - Don't take my words for it. Do your own research.


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