Is Nashville Explosion Connected To Election Fraud?

 

Christmas Day dawned with a bang in Nashville. A huge explosion rocked the city at about 6.30 in the morning. CCTV shows at about 1.30am a recreational vehicle (RV) parked on the roadside at the AT&T Building at 333 Commerce Street. At 6am, three gunshots were heard, followed by a recorded message warning people nearby of a bomb and to evacuate immediately. The warnings were played repeatedly for about 15 minutes. At 6.30am the RV blew up in a huge explosion and seriously damaged 20 buildings. The police had enough time to clear people in the nearby area. The perpetrator(s) made an effort to prevent bloodshed. It's very obvious it was no terrorist work.

CCTV footage allowed police to trace the RV and identify a person of interest, 63 year old Anthony Quin Warner. They raided his home but neighbours said the house had been sold some time back. However they had seen the RV there 2 weeks ago.

Police found bullet casings and remains of body parts at the scene. The person possibly was in the RV at the time of explosion. DNA test confirmed Dec 27 it was indeed Warner. Next police will try to determine the motive. Two suggestions were floated. One - Warner's father worked in AT&T until he passed away in 2011. Warner Snr had work issues with his employer, we don't know what. Does anyone carry a father's grudge for 9 years and then exact a horrible revenge? This suggestion falls flat. Two - FBI started inquiring whether Warner has '5G Paranoia'. Apparently that refers to someone who has serious grievance with the government for collecting private citizen data.  A contractor who had outsourced some IT work to Warner came forward. He described Warner as a very good worker, never bothered anyone, does his work and go home and has never spoken ill of data privacy matters.

In record 2 days, case solved. Go home everyone, it's just a suicide bombing, nothing to see here.

If this was a conspiracy, it certainly was well executed. Much better than they did with Lee Harvey Oswald. The bomber was vaporised. There is no loose end. 

Was there a conspiracy? The nation is on edge with the election fraud claims and the cyber attack on Solarwinds. AT&T is in the communication infrastructure networks that includes telephony, cellular, internet and cable TV. The bombing hits some nerves as however remote, there is a possibility of all three being connected. 

There are a few things that do not tie up at Nashville.

1. Imagine Warner sitting in the RV for 5 hours, played the tape warning for 15 minutes, then blew himself up. It's ridiculously at odds with the psychology of a man who had some grievances with employers or government and wanting to make a statement. He would have wanted to air his grievances with absolute publicity, instead of making a mysterious exit.

2. What about the shots fired. Were they part of the taped record to attract police to the scene to save lives? There was report police found bullet casings. So did Warner shot himself several times? Is that possible?

3. Of all vehicles, the most noticeable RV is chosen. It's one that sticks out like a sore thumb. It's saying catch me, it's easy.

4. Warner had gifted the house to a woman some time ago, yet the RV was there a couple of weeks back for google to retrieve an image.

5. Some netizens have shown there appears to be a difference in some markings on the RV from the google image taken at Warner's house, and the one from the CCTV near AT&T Building.

6. Police appeared to have DNA confirmed in record time. Lab test for DNA takes some time, depending on the samples and the equipment. A 2009 study of police DNA testing capabilities showed for real urgent rush test, a New Hamshire police lab can do it in 2 days, Tenessee police lab can do it in 7 days, other states can do it on average 1-2 weeks. It is not known how quick FBI forensic lab in Roanake, Virginia can do the test, but it would take at least a while to deliver the samples from Nashville to Roanake. The Dec 27 confirmation of Warner's DNA takes some convincing. 

7. It is assumed the RV is ground zero, packed with explosives. Yet for such a terrific explosion, there is no slight cavity on the spot where the RV was parked.

8. Several underground utility covers were blown out indicating an explosion from below ground level. Could the RV explosion be a decoy?

9. The possibility of the RV being a decoy is supported by the unusual behaviour of a bomber getting into position and waiting 5 hours to detonate. It does not make sense. The only reason for sitting out 5 hours is he was waiting for a coordinated timing. With what? The underground bomb?

10. The building opposite to where the RV was parked suffered serious damage. Why is google blacking out that area in the satellite maps? It is obvious Google blackout was instructions from the government, but why? It seems that is an NSA building.

11. Both AT&T and suspected NSA building had special reinforced concrete firewalls that prevented them from massive damage. AT&T had important communication infrastructure to protect, so it is understandable for the reinforced structures. The suspected NSA building is questionable. What are they holding?

Taken together, these loose ends, the quick investigation, and the FBI trying to force down the '5G Paranoia' angle, seems to suggest a possible cover up. The '5G Paranoia' came out of the blue by FBI and suggest something obvious. By publicly linking Warner's motive to the suspected NSA building, they pre-empt speculation of the NSA building as the target. To those unwary of the sensitivity of this link, in 2013 whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed classified information on NSA spying on Americans in cooperation with communication companies. It seems AT&T has working programmes with NSA. 

The destruction of AT&T and communication infra does not fit into any plausible narrative. What is the purpose of causing a breakdown of communication networks in Nashville? If we look into the context of claims of election fraud, it fits the narrative only if there are critical data stored in Nashville. Powerful actors are out to destroy this data. We know AT&T works with NSA to collect private conversations and other digital traffic. These are randomly collected and archived away, and accessed by investigative agencies when needed. It is possible the suspected NSA building is the data centre where humongous servers of data are kept. That also explains why the building is specially structured. The narrative of a suicide bombing appears remote.The real target is more likely the NSA servers. 

The internet is rife with speculations and conspiracy theories and falsified videos by pranksters and whatever. But yet, internet chatter can be full of information, especially the bits of things here and there by residents living in Nashville in this case. Police today acknowledges that internet chatter has helped to solve many crimes. The Boston marathon bombers were quickly arrested with much help from intel picked up from internet chatter. In the Nashville explosion, these was a video which showed a shaft of white smoke shooting along a straight path into the air followed a couple of seconds later by the blast and the cloud from the explosion. Yet another video after the explosion showed a strange moving lazer beam on the wall of AT&T building. We don't know the veracity of the videos and what they mean.

There is the curious case of a Facebook posting by a Dr Edward Jones, a Nashville resident. Four days before Xmas, he posted on his wall of many Dominion machines being transported to AT&T Nashville and of a rumoured contract that the company had secured to do forensic audit on the machines. 

Could the Dominion machines in the AT&T building be the real target? This seems unlikely. No one has talked of AT&T and the contract, and the company certainly has no expertise of the sort. It is quite likely Jones coincidentally pulled a fast one. But a check at his Facebook does'nt show a prankster. It also showed the post had been taken down. After the explosion, Jones said he was getting out of town. He had too many enquiries and had changed the post to 'private'. Once he has relocated to a safe place, he will reactivate the post so public discussion can continue. We don't know why the cloak and dagger stuff and the danger he sensed. We know what happened to Seth Rich, the guy who was alleged to have stolen Hillary Clinton's emails and given to Julian Assange of Weakileaks. Police said Seith was gunned down in a botched robbery where his watch and wallet were still found on him. We also know Hillary had her confidential documents kept in a warehouse which coincidentally was burnt down in a fire. We do need to understand powerful actors are at play.

Seeing that AT&T is a communication networks enabler and the bombing came within days of the cyber attack at Solarwinds, my Andorian antennae quivered. I needed to check out AT&T and I found the following which may, or may not, mean anything, but nevertheless, interesting in passing :

1. AT&T serves the south-eastern areas of US. This includes Georgia, a hotbed of election fraud claims. A lot of data and voice communication from Georgia go through the Nashville hub of AT&T.
2. AT&T has a project with NSA on harvesting private telephone calls.
3. The building next to AT&T is a suspected NSA building.
4. Both AT&T and the NSA buildings have special reinforced firewalls. Data servers and huge treasure trove of all private conversations are physically protected.
5.  AT&T Building was acquired by Cerberus Capital Management in 2007. What makes this interesting is the character Hootan Yaghoobzadeh. He was SVP at Cerberus 2003-2009. In 2009 Hootan teamed up with Steven Owens and co-founded the private equity firm Staple Street Capital. One of their funds invested in Dominion Voting Systems Inc. As a result Hootan and Owens sit at the Board of Dominion. The fund that invested into Dominion seems to have come from one single investor, UBS Securities HK (75% owned by CCP). The facts indicate Staple is the conduit for CCP acquisition and control of Dominion. Cerberus acquisition of AT&T Building may not mean anything because they resold it immediately the following year to MTL Leasing LLC, a newly incorporated company to book the asset. MTL is owned by MetLife Tower Insurance. There is nothing to indicate the deal was not legit. It only smells rotten if MTL is simply a way to camouflage ownership and embed it in a legitimate insurance corporation. There is no SEC record on MTL so no further check is possible.

 

Was Warner simply a suicide bomber, or was he a patsy, just like Lee Harvey Oswald? You be the judge.

Open letter to Elections Dept, PAP MPs & Opposition Parties regarding electronic voting

 

For years, Singapore has managed very efficiently with a manual voting system. Our elections have generally been very orderly and subdued. The only excitement has been the 2 or 3 occasions when ruling party candidates wondered into prohibited areas and we were educated by the strange judiciary wisdom that 'within' the area is not 'near' the area. 

Of course, that does not preclude the use of technology where the cost benefits make sense. We are now digitising certain aspects of the voting system. In the main, it pertains to availability of services to candidates. For voters, it is the introduction of electronic registration at voting stations. In fact, I have always wondered why this function has never been automated in the past 30 years. It's a relatively simple app to code.

There are some issues I like to raise, for which concerned parties should either pursue further or provide some answers.

Foremost, on the dollars and cents.  The new electronic registration employs scanners from Smartmatic. On electronic registration, it would be useful if we can have an idea of how much the Smartmatic contract was. If all a Smartmatic machine does is to scan NRIC and register voters, I am confident any smart young student in our junior colleges could have coded an equally efficient and secure app to satisfy the requirements at a tiny fraction of the cost. There is certainly no need for a mission specific equipment that will be used one day every 4 years. Those with a quick mind must have guessed my real question. Are there any other functions for these Smartmatic machines besides registering the voters? If so, what are these?

In a recent Pennsylvannia Senate Republican lawmaker public hearing into claims of election fraud, retired army colonel Phil Waldronm, who had served in cyber warfare units, said : "The voting systems in the US and in Pennsylvania were built to be manipulated. They’ve been used in elections around the world, in stolen elections around the world, in Venezuela, Italy, Argentina, Singapore, Bolivia as close as two weeks ago." The colonel has cast aspersion on the integrity of our election system and it behoves on our government to make a public statement to clarify the matter to Singaporeans. None was forthcoming on a matter so serious. Our national reputation has been blemished but instead of a strong rebuttal, we are treated to the circus of a prime minister protecting his personal reputation in 2 simultaneous libel cases in the courts. Or perhaps, with their superior cyber intel, the US knows something and a rebuttal may open up Pandora's box.

The following stakeholders should have participation in the implementation of an electronic voting system :
1. An independent Election Agency
2. The ruling party
3. The opposition parties
4. The public

We have no independent election agency. The Election Department manages the Singapore election and it resides in the Prime Minister's Office. (1) and (2) are one and the same. We have no public representation. Surely a parliamentary discussion of an electoral reform on the question of an independent election agency and a civic overseeing body, has more national interest than second hand smoking on balconies.

In the absence of a civic overseeing body, it is incumbent on the opposition parties to assume heightened responsibility on the implementation of an electronic voting system. In our big government nanny state, the government consistently blindsides us with developments without public input. We are once again presented with a fait accompli.

The election chaos in the US should teach us some lessons with respect to the use of electronic voting systems. The nonchalant way the various states treated systems and process security is bewildering to say the least. No doubt our use for only electronic registration is not as complicated as the US voting system. Nevertheless there are implementation protocols that we should adhere to.

Both ruling and opposition parties must review the machine hard codes and application source codes independently of each other. If satisfied, the machines and software are certified. Any revision requires a fresh audit and recertification.

Audit tests should be independently conducted by stakeholders. After which, the audit reports should be filed. Only after a green light is forthcoming from the audit reports of stakeholders can the electronic registration system go live.

In light of the distrust of the Smartmatic and Dominion names generated by the US election, opposition must satisfy themselves that the machines have no other data files except pre-election voter information, there is no communication devices whether built-in or external. 

The use of the voter signing pen raises some concerns. It could well be for the sole purpose of marking the ballots as explained. That's well and good. The signing pen certainly facilitates the scanning of votes. That would mean our votes will be harvested and voting data-base maintained. This calls a revisit of the issue of vote privacy once again. I'm quite certain if these are archived, it will not be for the purpose of selective service denials. It would be to facilitate gerrymandering. Opposition members must ascertain how will counted ballots be controlled and that there is no post election scanning of votes. This can only be satisfied with the source code reviews.

What I am suggesting is that stakeholders can no longer be passive onlookers, sidelined to a systems and process tour and some hands holding on the functionality. Instead, they have to be active participants in the future developments of the electoral process.

A Critique Of Prof Tommy Koh's blog on 2020 US Presidential Election

What in the world is wrong with the Americans and why is their 2020 election in a mess. Prof Tommy Koh recently blogged in the Centre For International Law website to share his views and his understanding of the country.

"The 2020 US Presidential Election - A Quest For Understanding" .... Prof Tommy Koh

I have great respect for the professor but I disagree with several of his viewpoints. This blog is a contrarian view of some things he mentioned as well as some things which he omitted but which can provide a better understanding. I realise I am pitting my mediocre academic background against an esteemed personality but I hope to demonstrate that if we are to develop as an open and mature society, we must be dauntless in exercising critical thinking and not be spoon-fed ideas and views. I shall quote a lot from his article.

Koh : "... the 2020 elections ... have been won by President-elect Joe Biden ... Trump has not conceded defeat ... <Trump> intends to challenge the results in the courts"

Writing on Nov 11, the status of electoral votes from states counted are 232-227 in Trump's favour with 6 states still in play, The 270+ number is an outright liberal media concoction. The logic that Trump should concede defeat at this point is beyond ridiculous. Trump is also not challenging the results in the courts, there being no results yet in the first place. What the Trump Team is pursuing is to bring cases of vote irregularities to court. It is an entirely different matter. The unbelievably biased media, aided by big tech, is actively rushing for a Biden win by conditioning the narrative that Trump has lost. They pursue the tactic of rushing by influencing the public and world leaders to recognise Biden, hoping to bear pressure down on Trump to concede. It's surprising that Koh does not see it this way. Because the eventuality of a Trump win will be total embarassment.

Blue States <Democrats> and Red States <Republicans>

Koh : "...  the 3 states on the west coast and the 10 states on the northeast coast, are blue states.  The reason is probably that the people on the two coasts are better educated, more cosmopolitan and liberal.  This is why most of them voted for the Democratic Party.".

Indeed Koh is right. But why do they vote for Democrats? It's because the Dems stand on a liberal platform. But why are better educated people liberals? The reason is academia. This is one of the pillars of society that has been captured by liberal-minded community. In the last 70 years they have ingrained themselves deep in universities. Academia is the faucet from which has flowed a generation of educated Americans indoctrinated in liberal thoughts.

US today is divided along some fault lines, a major one is political philosophy. In the past few decades, the country has seen a tectonic shift to the Left. This strikes at the core of what is happening in the US. I thought Koh should have discussed this point, but since he has not, let me try to unpack this.

America was founded on Puritanism and people who led their lives guided by moral codes of the Book are called conservatives. Liberals are people who reject dogma and want a progressive way of life with values changing to the needs of the times. Decades ago, the country was predominately conservative, with some Liberals and others in between (such as Libertarians, Anarchists, etc). The percentages have shifted and today, there is about 30% Conservatives and 30% Liberals. All political science and psychology students know that with percentages like this, all hell will break loose.

How then has Liberals proliferated. The 4 pillars that nurture the social fabric have been captured by liberal-leaning groups. The academia faucet as mentioned earlier is one. Entertaiment industry is another. Their works condition the minds by nuancing the products consumed vociferously by the public. Is it a wonder to see celebrities like Robert de Niro and his ant-Trump rants? Is it a wonder to see pop icons going into Satanic gears and profanities to rant in the face of dogma? The third pillar is the media which today includes big tech corporations. They push the Biden narrative, casting aside professionalism and breaking laws in the process. The last pillar is the judiciary whose capture facilitates the passing of socialist legislation. Before Trump, the scale in the Supreme Court was 5 Liberal justices and 4 Constitutionalists. Republicans tend to appoint constitutionalists, Democrats appoint Liberals. Is it a wonder the nomination of Kavannagh and Amy Barrett were resisted by the Democrats with such vehemence?

Why this has happened is a very much bigger picture story that I cannot incorporate here. In brief, it is the infiltration of communists who has been slowing building from the ground up for decades. Communism never went away with McCarthyism during the Red Scare after WWII. Don't believe in such a thing? Just take a look at AOC's Republican Accountability Project. It is the starter in a Pol Pot menu. The Extreme Left has taken over the Democratic Party. Biden is riding on the back of an Extreme Left tiger that he cannot get off if he enters the White House.

At its core, Liberals attach greater importance to equality and social/community responsibility. They are socialists. As liberal influence and power grow, intolerance follow. In campus, an undergrad seen with a Bible is likely to get ostracised. Visiting speakers are not welcome if the topic is conservative. If they do get the permit, they are heckled by liberal groups, often in the most vulgar manner. You can't greet someone Merry X'mas. Cops can't put any religious labels in their vehicles. If you wear a MAGA cap in a plane, you may get thrown out.

As religious dogma is cast aside, liberal dogma fills the vacuum. There has been a societal value change to progressive thoughts in US. Thus a huge segment of Americans are now skewed toward liberal idealism like gay marriages, multi-culturalism, pro-abortion, etc. A whole new liberal generation has grown up, many occupying power positions in industry, commerce and in government.

Republican philosophy leans more towards individual freedoms, rights and responsibilities. They fall back on the platform values of the founding generation with ideas like patriotism, sacrifice, moral stoicism, hard work. Conservatives tend to to be more religious and supporters of Republican Party.

Why is this difference of ideology so divisive?. Liberals are socialists of various scales. On the extreme Left are communists in sheep skin. Liberals see religion as enemy number one. Just as communist Russia and China saw the Roman Catholic Church. When Liberal numbers were small, the Dems were able to sit down and negotiate with GOP. As the number and strength grew, the scale tips to the extreme Left and sheep skins are coming off. This is the pattern of the communists. Liberals now demand power is their right. The battle in 2016 was all about retaining power for the Democrats. Obama took them to a pivotal point where power was almost complete. Remember Hillary's famous quote "Long-held religious dogmas need to change". The Conservatives know what's coming. The Democrats reached the point of almost making the Church powerless and irrelevant and GOP a weakling. No Mitt Romneys or any other Republican could have stood against Clinton in 2016. Then out of the blue came this gregarious and pompous businessmen whom, in the past, all Democrats were happy to take donations from, and media and celebrities sucked up to him for some star dust. Trump is the bulldozer that no one can stop. The Liberals have never faced a Republican capable of hitting them back so hard since Newt Gingrich. Is it a wonder then of the 4 years of extreme hate they heaped on Trump and the coordinated national effort to assassinate his character.

The 2020 election is about the Liberals wanting to grab power to prevent Trump from dismantling the socialist policies already in place, and the Conservatives seeking to protect and preserve the US Constitution to prevent the country from turning into a communist country. The irony is not lost that the Democrats want to turn all states Blue when they are turning the country Red.

Why is the South Coloured Red?

Koh : "Another striking feature is that most of the states in the south, which were part of the confederacy during the Civil War, are red states. Georgia is the only exception to the rule.  Historically, the southern states were blue states.  However, when Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, decided to end segregation in the south, and introduced the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, the south felt betrayed by the Democratic Party.  As a result, all of them switched their allegiance to the Republican Party.  The Republican Party, the party of Abraham Lincoln, has forgotten his legacy and become the champion of the white voters."

I think it is disingenius to just glean through this part in the manner Koh did if the journey is one of real discovery. A proper understanding of this will disclose the deceit and moral leanings of the Democrats that has so quickly been forgotten by Americans. This journey of discovery is made very difficult as the mainstream narrative has been completely whitewashed by Liberal academia.

The Dems have a very inconvenient past that they successfully buried by adopting the communist tactic of blaming the other side for their own sins. The Dems is the party of the Ku Klux Klan. They were the racist who lynched the blacks in the south. And here they stand, casting Trump the bigoted racist, the white supremacists.

Koh is right that the southern states were historically blue. The reason is very simple. The southern states were the states of the white plantation owners who owned 4 million black slaves. Before the Civil War, there was no Republican Party and the Democratic Party was the dominant game. The Ku Klux Klan was a vigilante group formed by white plantation owners to control the blacks. Any Dem politician who wanted to get anywhere in the hierarchy had to be a member of the KKK. All slave owners were Democrats and not a single Republican owned a single slave. The US was a Jacksonian Democracy, where suffrage was extended only to whites above 21 years. That is a historical fact why those states were blue and no Dems today want to face that truth.

The Republican Party, also known as the Grand Old Party (GOP), came into being in 1854. The issue of slavery came to the fore around the time. GOP stood for abolishing slavery, the Dems were anti-abolitionists. This led southern Democrats to breakaway to form the Confederacy and the Civil War broke out in 1861.  The first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, signed the Emancipation Proclamation in 1864 which freed the slaves. The war ended in 1865, the south loss. Lincoln advocated for citizenship and voting rights for the blacks and on 11 April 1865, the first Republican President who fought for the rights of the blacks, was assassinated for his cause.

The 15th Amendment was finally passed in 1870 which granted the blacks universal suffrage. In reality, the blacks in the south faced tremendous amount of violent obstacles and few really had a chance to vote. Then followed 100 years of black discrimination which led to black activism, most famous of which were the militant Black Panthers and the pacifist human rights movement of Martin Luther King. During those difficult times, it was the Democrats who passed the cruel Jim Crow laws which enforced racial segregation and disenfranchised the blacks.

It is biased to say "Historically, the southern states were blue states.' without explaining the bigotted and racist policies of the Dems kept the States blue.

Again, there is bias and in fact, a historical error in this view : "... Johnson, decided to end segregation in the south, and introduced the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, the south felt betrayed by the Democratic Party" This statement promotes the Dems as the party of the pure hearts who are anti-racist. Drill into the details, the picture is different. Firstly, it is a known fact, that in private, Lyndon Johnson possessed the kind of bigotry that the Dems now heap on Trump. Secondly, both the Acts passed in Congress and Senate with Republicans voting in substantially higher percentages than Dems. Had Republicans voted in the same percentage as the Dems, those laws would not have passed. Thirdly, George Wallace, an ex-segregationist who ran as an independent on racist sentiments and who managed to retain 5 southern states. Johnson's Acts did'nt cause all southern states to turn red.

Koh: "As a result, all of them switched their allegiance to the Republican Party.  The Republican Party, the party of Abraham Lincoln, has forgotten his legacy and become the champion of the white voters."

This statement is interesting and majority of people have been fooled by a big deceit, apparently including Koh. It's impossible with voters that "all of them switched". Koh was not referring to black voters, but to something called the Dixiecrats. The story goes that sometime in 1948, a bunch of Dems switched over to the Republican side. This is known as "THE BIG SWITCH". Thus, according to Koh, the GOP of today is the racist party that champions the whites. Liberal historians framed the narrative to show the Dems as the good guys and Republicans the bad ones. The Dems today are not the Dems of the past. The Republicans today are the Dems of the past, ie the white supremacist racist white party. That's what kids are taught in universities. It's a big lie, let me explain.

The factual account is different. In WWII, 2 million blacks fought for the US. Dem Leader Truman had to acknowledge this contribution and proposed equal pay and integration in the military. A group of more than 200 Dems from the south refused to support this legislation. These southern Democrats advocated for racial segregation for their states and they formed a faction. They became known as Dixiecrats. Their plan was to wrest control of the Democratic Party and put Strom Thurmond on the presidential ticket. They failed at the 1948 Democratic National Convention which nominated Truman who went on to become President. Dixiecrats fizzled out. Most went back to the Democratic Party proper. Of the 200+ only Strom Thurmond joined the GOP in 1964. There was no big switch.

This Dixiecrat story highlights 3 important points. (1) It is a great deceit by the Dems to pin the blame of the past on the Republicans. As I mentioned earlier, it is a communist tactic to always blame the opponent for that which you are responsible. (2) The insidious attempt by liberal academics at historical revisionism poisoned many young minds of today. (3) The bigotry of the Dems is still very much alive today.

So indeed, how did the southern states turn red? Nixon was never racist, and he never used white bigotry to win the south. The bigoted ex-Democrat George Wallace won 5 of the states. In 1992 Democrat Bill Clinton won 6 southern states. The Civil Rights Act passed by Johnson did not cause any sudden big switch of southern states to red. The states gradually turned red 30 years after the Civil Rights Act. The reason is the growth of the middle class, and values changed over time.

Koh's characterisation of a flip by the GOP to a bigoted white supremacist party is factually wrong. It is revisionist history that allows the Dems to make a devil out of Trump. This revisionism is so deep that in every debate I watch on internet, the Liberals will make a vehement claim of the Big Switch. This is easily rebuffed by the latest example in the MAGA March Nov 14 in support of Trump which went peacefully until MLM and anti-protestors came out.

Why are most of the states between the two coasts red states?

Koh : "It is also very striking that most of the states between the two coasts are red states? Is there an explanation for the phenomenon? I think there is. The people who live in the middle of the country tend to be more conservative than those living on the two coasts. They also tend to be more religious. Many of the Americans who live in the rural America and in the west, tend to own guns and hunt for recreation. The Republican Party has weaponised Christianity against the Democratic Party. It has also embraced the National Rifle Association and the gun lobby."

Koh has got it wrong factually. (1) The Bible Belt comprises of only the SE quatrant. Territory-wise, Koh only had 50% correct. (2) Pew Research analysis of 2016 election showed only 52% Catholics and 58% Protestants/other Christians voted Trump.

Had Koh said "The Republican Party has weaponised Christianity against the Democratic Party" in a Singapore context, he would have landed up in jail. Not only is it mischevious, the statistics proved him wrong. Koh could have said Democrats' pro-abortion and same-sex marriage policies disenfranchised the Christians. But he took the liberal media line of nuances against Republicans.

According to Koh, the people living in between the east/west coasts tend to be conservatives who likes to go hunting. Thus they carry arms and the Republican Party embraces the NRA to win votes. This is a tourist-eye view. The US is indeed complicated, and to understand the guns issue, one needs to view from 3 perspectives. (1) Americans have a unique DNA. They value individual freedom and their constitutional rights passionately. The 2nd Amendment gives them the right to carry arms to protect themselves. This is not so much about the domestic protection against someone breaking into the house, the way most non-Americans view it. It is about protection against tyranny, the last resort when the government turns against the people. (2) The GOP conservative platform cherishes the same ideal of self-protection by the people enshrined in the 2nd Amendment. That's why they are pro-NRA. (3) The Dems ideology is full government control over everything. Full socialism is communism. Private individuals carrying arms is the last thing they want. That's why Dems are anti-NRA.

I would expand on Koh's question and ask why indeed is the middle blot red and West and North Eastern coast staes blue? There may be various reasons, but one major one would have to be simply a matter of economics. 

With the exception of Texas which is red, the blue states are the rich states. This bears a close correlation to the pattern of wealth distribution in the US. It points to the election as a clear cut battle between the rich and the poor.

This then, raises the anomaly of the politics in US. The socialist Democrats are supposed to be the workers' party, but it is the rich state where they are strong. On the other hand, the Republicans are the capitalists, but the poor states are supporting them. How does one get a handle on this?

I see the answer in Liberalism ideology vs pragmatism. As Koh pointed out, there are more liberals in the blue states. Better educated, better jobs, wealthy people in wealthier states. The majority of liberals are young idealists imbued with the notion of social justice (a topic I blogged here). This segment support the socialist platforms of the Dems. To them, it's social justice over economics. But there are also a small and very loud segment of liberals who are business owners and celebrities. Why do they support socialist platforms that will supposedly take away their wealth? The business class do so for selfish reasons. They support the Dems who protect their stranglehold in the industry, as well as the globalist policies. The celebrities are hypocrites. They shout for redistribution, but they are the ones that are sucking in all the monies of the poor.

The voters in the red states go for the practical policies of the Republicans. Pragmatic people are smart enough to see all the socialist policies of the Dems bankrupting the blue cities and states.

White Voters and Black Voters

Koh : "There is also a racial divide in the behaviour of the voters.  By a big majority, the black voters voted for Joe Biden."

Koh highlighted several demographic analysis which I don't have a problem with. The black votes require some explanation for a better understanding. After the emancipation of black slaves, it's no surprise all the black votes went to the GOP. This pattern persisted until the 1930s. In the time of the Great Depression, poverty drove blacks to flip massively to the Dems to support Democrat Roosevelt's New Deal programme. After 1965 Dems captured almost 90% of black votes and it has stayed at the level ever since. What sealed the fate for the GOP was Barry Goldwater who was the presidential nominee in 1964. Goldwater's plan to capture the southern states was to placate white votes by advocating for the repeal of Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts and relegate race relations to individual state responsibility. This was called the GOP Southern Strategy, in effect a reversal of what Abraham Lincoln had done, and what Koh meant "they had forgotten his legacy". In the end, Democrat Truman won, and Southern Strategy was never pursued by Nixon later on. The GOP has never been able to regain the trust of the blacks to this day.

It is yet another anomaly of the US that blacks today voted 10-1 for the party that lynched them in the past. They rejected the party that emancipated them, and whose majority votes forced Johnson to sign the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

 

Democrats hold elitist world views. Before the Civil war period, blacks were deemed useless people whose only function is to be used as slaves. After the war, blacks were still useless people who were prevented from voting Republicans and were second class citizens by segregation and repression. Today, the poor, predominantly blacks, are Hillary Clinton's 'basket of deplorables'. Sounds very much like the 'mediocres.' of Singapore. The Left have mastered how to turn blacks into Democrat voters. Simply use socialist policies that hand out just enough to keep the blacks in ghettos and sustain a mendicant community.

Black activism against "Democrat plantation" has trended recently. This is a movement that believes Democrats have failed the blacks. Eighty years supporting the Democrats have seen blacks unable to join mainstrean America. They are stuck in the bottom rung of the social construct in a seemingly hopeless situation with less education and employment opportunities. Democrat policies for 80 years have denied blacks agency, not much different in the days of slavery. It is a new Democrat plantation they are now trapped in.

In the 2020 election, exit polls showed Trump has managed to increase Republican black votes slightly from 13% in 2016 to 18%. Trump administration has put in place programme initiatives that enhance educational and economic opportunities in black communities which has seen hopeful results in the last 4 years.

A divided America

Koh : "Over the past 30 years, America has become more polarized and divided.  The paradigm shift probably began with Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican who viewed the Democratic Party as enemy and advocated confrontation over compromise.  The relations between the two parties have become toxic and they view each other as the enemy of the people."

Koh set out to search for understanding the complicated US and it is incredible that his answer is in one sentence, down to one single person, Newt Gingrich. Can such complicated problems be attributed to one single personality? .Gingrich indeed pursued an abrasive and confrontational style to break Dems strangle-hold on Congress for 4 decades. Indeed he introduced toxicity between the 2 parties. However, the same impossible political divide in the country, I posit, is caused by the identity politics of the Democrats which has poisoned the whole nation..

Conclusion

Koh :  " The Republican Party stood for free trade and the Democratic Party was more protectionist."

In closing, some words on economics to get a sense of US actions in the international scene. I'm not too sure if there was a typo in the Koh statement.

The 2014 and 2020 elections are also battles between globalism vs nationalism. It cannot be anymore clearer than this in the party divide.

The Biden camp is a continuation of globalism, the dominant economic trend for the past few decades. This basically means policies dictated by (1) the subjucation to global policies set by international bodies; (2) outsourcing jobs to countries with cheaper production costs; (3) reliance on foreign sources of energy and commodities.

Republican Trump's inward looking policies revolve around the ideas (1) US exceptionalism - that US is a dominant force and can influence global policies unilaterally; (2) MAGA - that outsourcing was a strategic mistake, and works to return supply chains back to the US; (3) critical resources should be produced locally in the interest of national security.

Trump Had 2020 Election Stolen But Deliverance By the Divine

 

Remember, remember, the Fifth of November
Gunpowder treason and plot
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot

In England 1605, a group of conspirators plotted to assassinate King James I and members of the House of Lords and Commons as parliament convened on 5th of November. Almost a ton of gunpowder was placed in the undercroft of Parliament House. A last minute tip-off led to the arrest of Guy Fawkes, the trigger man, as he prepared to ignite the explosives in the basement. 5th of November has since been celebrated with fireworks to commemorate the day of discovery of treasonous conspiracy.

In the run for the White House in 2016, several persons believed they received dreams from God that Trump had been choosen to win. Of all these, I thought Mark Taylor's revelation was the most believable. He predicted several events and acts which have come true. 2020 will be won by Trump, according to Mark and a few others. Many faithfuls are now wondering, where is God.

For believers, God works in ways we don't understand. He chooses man to work for Him, the manner of man is irrelevant. That Trump is boorish or whatever the sycophantic media's revulsive word one remembers, does not matter. Thousands of years ago, God chose David who was by no means an angel. And God has a humourous side. He plays with dates. Almost all His divine acts occur on significant dates, as if prompting us to connect the dots.

"Coincidence is God's way of remaining anonymous".... Albert Einstein  

I believe the game is not over and we may be in for the greatest surprise of our lives. 5th November 1605 England uncovered the conspiracy to destroy their government. This 5th November, the US may well be uncovering the greatest conspiracy of treasonous act to steal the presidency. 

Did Biden just bragged of the greatest fraud in US politics? Was it a Freudian slip? Or was it an old man who had his moment of confusion of time and place and said something not appropriate?

We have all seen honest Joe admitting on video how he did a quid pro quo with Ukraine.

Was there fraud? One isolated incident may not support the claim. Two is a concern, more than ten is a rip roaring oh-my-gosh. US liberal suppressed all these, but foreign presses reported faithfully.  Those who suspected fraud did occur, probably already knows much of the reports and seen videos, which Facebook does not allow you to share. Those who disbelieve it's a clean election will not hear anything of it. One can bring the horse to the water but cannot make the animal drink it.  I shall not go into the details of the various claims of fraud. Suffice to say, that DOJ Barr has asked for investigations into election irregularities.

For those that think Trump is a sore loser, well, understand this. In the 2000 election, Republican Bush challenged Democrat Al Gore all the way to the Supreme Court. The election count for the state Florida was held up for 36 days. It ended in victory for Bush. Now 2020 Republican Trump is challenging Democrat Biden, and with valid reasons. Dems play dirty, very dirty, and the US needs a tough cookie non-politician Trump to stand up to them. The days of the namby pamby Republicans are over, and the Dems have gone berserk for 4 years.

Trump came into the white House promising to clear the swamp. A Democrat Party that went berserk had the support of a sycophantic media; ill-disciplined state agencies manned by liberal partisan hacks (the deep state) who think they, whom nobody elected, and not the President, have a better idea of how to run the country; entertainment industry hacks like Robert di Niro; big tech moguls; academdia and even the clergy. Anybody else would have caved in under the relentless assault of accusations and falsehoods, amplified a thousand times through technology.  His enemies will throw everything at him, including the kitchen sink. Mark Taylor had prophecised this, that Trump will face an attack on a scale never seen before. Yet amidst all these distractions and the 2 years wasted on impeachment, Trump did many admirable acts in office. But nobody hears of these as the media blankets everything out. For a while it deed seem the Divine had stood behind Trump and will steer him to a 2020 victory..

I started writing this blog 3 days ago when everything looked bleak for Trump. Those with faith cling to it and simply waited for the divine to work. Those who have faith  but needed proof, asked where is God. Events are happening very fast in the last few hours. This has taken the thunder away from my blog, but hey, it does not bother me. As at this point when I'm finishing up the blog, the news is Pennsylvania vote count has flipped in favour of Trump and Biden electoral vote count has been reduced to 259. In Arizona, Trump now has a chance of catching Biden. To come back from the brink of defeat is nothing short of a miracle.

The unworthy media and big tech played their role in destroying Trump's character. They played the pivotal role in feeding skewed news to peddle votes to Biden. And they took it upon themselves to call the election and garner international support to pressurise Trump to concede defeat. It is for the Election Dept, not the press, to call the election. As PM Trudeau stood out to congratulate Biden, followed by many other world leaders, I called them fools. And that includes Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong. That's what they will look like if indeed the vote count is flipped, as indeed it appears that will be the case.  

There has been a huge huge conspiracy of the Left going on in US for years. It required a Donald Trump to bring all these into the open. It is humanly impossible for Trump to uncover all this without Grace. In his 2nd term, the admin will conduct a legal assault on the cabal of treasonous players. It will uncover a conspiracy such as the world has never seen. Just as England had the 5th of November to remember, US will have theirs. It will be remembered as the day the Guy Fawkes' masks come off and how the election was stolen and recovered. For the faithful who believes that Evil had taken hold of the US since the day Obama came into office, the 5th of November is when God revealed the conspiracy of the Left in the most democratic country in the world. . 

Back in 1605 England, those guilty of treason faced a horrendous death. They were horse dragged to the public execution place, stand on the platform with the noose around the neck, watch as their testicles are removed and stomach cut open, then dropped from the gallows to hang till they are dead. Guy Fawkes was lucky, he jumped from the gallows and died before the executioner could cut him. I don't wish the same for the hundreds of conspirators from the Democrat Party, the deep state and big tech who will be revealed when Trump clears the swamp. Just let justice prevail.

Bless the Lord for the deliverance.

A View Of The Manila Beach Sand Nourishment Without The Emotions

The old world charm of Manila Baywalk area. In early 1900s, development had already pushed right to the sea. There is not much of beach width as can be see in this heritage photo.  What is obvious is the cleanliness of the beach front back then.

Modern day Manila and pollution is a big problem throughout the city, especially in the waterways. Major rivers Pampanga, Pasig, Talisay, Meycauayan, Navotas-Malabon-Tullahan-Tenejeros, and Maragondon, and the city pour floatsam, untreated waste water and sewage into the Manila Bay. The garbage is an eyesore, but what cannot be seen in the water is terrifying. The e-coliform level has reached as much as 330 million mpn/100ml, which is 3.3 million per cent over the acceptable health standard.

After a massive beach cleanup, Manila Beach is a sight to behold, even without white sand. However one's political stand, the beach clean up is a helluva of a Herculean task and ought to be applauded. All previous administrations have talked about it, but unable to do anything.

Manila beach after the Php389m beach nourishment. This covers a stretch of about 500m in the locality of the US Embassy. This beach nourishment project came out of the blue and, by the country's standard, very quickly completed. The sand came from a dolomite mining plant in another island (Cebu). It was excavated, crushed to sand, and shipped to Manila. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, Filipinos came to check out their new pride.

The white sands of Manila Beach after the rain and natural waves have had their say. A pyhrric victory for the administration and absolution for detractors who said its a vanity project and money should have been better spent on pandemic assistance to the needy.

Let's leave the politics and emotion aside. Let's try to understand some basics of the science and engineering behind beach nourishment.

The natural beach sand cycle:

Incoming wave is called the swash. It brings with it the sediments from the sea and deposits them on the beach. This process is called accretion. The outgoing wave is called the backwash which carries sand back to the sea. This is the erosion.

Where is the sand coming from? It is from a submerged sand bar which could be kilometres offshore. The volume of sand in the sandbar is a few thousand times more than the sand that is seen on the beach.

Nature crafts a particular beach depending on the gradient of the slope, native sediments, wave energy, longshore drift, current patterns, wind, storms, sea-level changes, and coastal topography. Without any coastal engineering construction, but simply pouring the dolomite sand, it is only a matter of time before nature will return the beach to its previous condition of equilibrium. The added sand will ultimately end up in the sad bar.. The only way the Manila beach can be widened is to pour billions of tons of dolomite sand onto the sand bar. This is of course humanly impossible.|

The engineering considered:

Geotube perimeter -

DENR have insisted the sand can be retained by the use of Geotubes. The snake-like strings in the "sand washed out" photo appear to be the Geotubes. They are obviously not in position but brought in after the sand has been deposited. A further tell-tale sign is the pathetic use of sandbags. The use of Geotubes seemed like an after-thought for a project lacking engineering approach.

Geotubes are mostly used in protection of dunes and embankment. DENR idea seems to be to use Geotubes as perimenters to cordon in the sand. The seaward portion is likely to be submerged. There don't appear to be any examples of installations like this anywhere else. It is possibly experimental.

The Geotube perimeter will prevent the seaward movement of the sand. At the same time, it also prevents the shoreward movement. In the frothy waters of the swash and surf zones, sand grains are floating in the water. The impact is yet to be seen.

Geotubes are porous. They are filled with the native flurry. Fine sediments flow through it. Submerged Geotubes have a longer lifespan. The portion that is above water line is subject to the wear and tear effect of the waves thus shorter maintenance intervals.

Submerged Geotubes are hazards to boating activities and swimming. However, if these recreational activities are not allowed given the dangerous e-coliform levels in Manila Bay, then it does not present a problem.

Breakwaters -

The Dept of Public Works and Highway announced belatedly that they are considering the construction of breakwaters. This underlies the project was approached without engineering concepts and coordination amongst agencies. It's an afterthought.

Breakwaters may be offshore or onshore. There is already an existing offshore breakwater some kilometres out in that part of the bay. It is obvious DPWH was talking of onshore breakwaters.

Onshore break waters are barriers built parallel to the beach. These contraptions are common and have been proven highly effective in many beaches all over the world. They help to entrap the sand on the backwash and stabilise the beach from erosion.

The onshore breakwaters on the reclaimed land on  Singapore's East Coast Park were constructed in 1982 and there have been no need for beach nourishment for 38 years.

The sand:

This could be onsite or offsite. Onsite sand is predominantly used in beach nourishment for 2 reasons. It is more economical to dredge and pump in the sand from the sand bar offshore. Another reason is ecological. Native sand is preferred.

Manila white sand came from a dolomite mine in Cebu. For a country that has good legislation for extractive industry, the project is in breach of environmental requirements at the production and the deposition sites. There were no environmental studies done at both extraction and dumping sites. Neither were official permits issued. The Cebu mine in fact has breached its mining share agreement with the government and the local governor has suspended the mine's local sales operation.

Why is native, or local sand, preferred? Beach nourishment impacts the ecological system both onshore and offshore. The benthic invertebrates population decrease which affects the fishes and the birds. The impact is greater if offsite sand is used. The Manila Beach nourishment is not large scale, so this may not be a big issue. However, the use of dolomite sand is controversial. Government managers said it poses no dangers to human recreation activities, but biologists warned of the toxicity of dolomite particles. The sudden fish kill in the bay after the beach nourishment was completed is a tell tale sign. Is there a reason no other beach nourishment projects in the world use dolomite sand?

The size and jaggedness of the grains of sand matter. The size affects the way the sand is distributed by the accretions and erosion of the waves. Finer sediments are deposited further upshore and bigger sized end up at the waterline. Offsite sand interrupts the natural composition of native sand and thus the natural equilibrium. The long term outcome is uncertan once nature is disturbed.

The jaggedness of the sand matters. One way beach sand mitigates erosion is it hydraulic stabilisation characteristic. This works by the interlocking effect of the jaggedness of the sands. The finer sands with more rounded shapes have less hydraulic stability and gets washed away easily.

Thus one grain of sand is not the same as another. In the Singapore land reclamation project, supply of sand is subject to quality control in terms of size and jaggedness. It's not a simple case of any sand will do.

It would seem the native sediment at the Manila Bay area is more silt and volcanic in nature. Thus the sand tends to be blackish and very fine. The man-made dolomite sand is coarser and bigger grains. The tidal dynamics will tend to pull the white sands to the water line and the finer black sands deposited higher up the shore. Maintaining white sand there will be a tough job working against nature.

The Mandamus :

Is the sudden and seemingly rushed projet a populist and vanity project? The government maintains it is in abeyance of the 2008 Supreme Court mandamus.

Wikipedia: "Mandamus is a judicial remedy in the form of an order from a court to any government, subordinate court, corporation, or public authority, to do some specific act which that body is obliged under law to do, and which is in the nature of public duty, and in certain cases one of a statutory duty."

In 1999 a group of complainants calling themselves "Concerned Residents of Manila Bay" filed a complaint in the Regional Trial Court in Imus, Cavite against various government agencies for cleanup, rehabilitation, and protection of the Manila Bay. Complainants won. In 2002 the lower court ordered the various agencies to do their respective tasks :

MWSS - sewerage treatment facilities
WUA - proper disposal of waste
DENR - waste facilities to rid the bay of toxic and hazardous substances
PPA - discharge of solid and liquid wastes from docking vessels
MMDA - solid waste and liquid garbage disposal system
DA - marine life in Manila Bay
DBM - budget for rehabilitation of Manila Bay
DPWH -removing debris and garbage in the bay
DOH - fecal sludge and sewage coming from septic tanks
DECS - education on environmental protection
Coast Guard and PNP Maritime Group - prevent illegal fishing in Manila Bay.

The order was sustained by the Court of Appeal in 2005. The case went to the High Court which upheld the decision. It issued the Mandumus in 2008, penned by Justice Velasco. The Mandamus set out the tasks of each agency with quarterly progress reports. A Mandamus remains open until all ordered tasks have been completed.

Read the Mandaus here

Three cheers to the Caviteans.

It is a bit far-fetched that the administration can be compelled by a Mandamus which had been swept under the carpet for 12 years. In the scheme of things for the rehabilitation of Manila Bay, the beach nourishment ought to be the final tasks after all the other systems are in place to control sewerage, solid, liquid and garbage disposal and the rivers are rejuvenated. It's a case of trying to run before one learns to walk.

Manila Bay Coastal Strategy :

It is naive to believe such a complex project for the rehabilitation of Manila Bay can be organised and supervised by the courts. The tragedy is that the Philippines already has a comprehensive coastal strategy for Manila Bay and nobody is paying attention to it.

Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia (PEMSEA) is a regional partnership programme implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and executed by the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS). Its mission is to foster and sustain healthy and resilient coasts and oceans, communities and economies across the Seas of East Asia through integrated management solutions and partnerships. PEMSEA regional development office is in fact, hosted by Philippines with its office within DENR in Quezon City.

In 2001 PEMSEA completed the Manila Bay Coastal Strategy. It provides a comprehensive environmental management framework, targeted outcomes and a series of actions programs involving the participation of both government and non-government sectors to bring back the old glory of the Bay. A PEMSEA project has logistical. funding, and technical expertise support from various international partnership agencies within the UN and other countries.

It's a crying shame the Manila Bay white sand project was rushed through with no proper environmental studies nor engineering modelling instead of working through PEMSEA framework for the Manila Bay Coastal Strategy where support may be availed.

For the full 121 page Manila Bay Coastal Strategy read here.

The economics :

2,000 to 3,000 beach nourishment projects are carried out annually all over the world. These projects are expensive and they are not one off events. The sand replenishment is repeated after an interval of a few years, the periodic cycle differs from site to site. Most beach nourishment projects are conducted because the onshore  economic activities generate positive payoffs. This may not be so for Manila Bay. However, it does not preclude the government from expending for the purpose of providing recreation facilities for the people to enjoy.    

Temasek Tracking - Idea Cellular: How an astute Indian regulatory agency saved Singapore taxpayers US234m

 

In early 2000's. Indian mobile industry was enticing as market penetration was only at 17%. With a population of 1.3b, India was a humongous market that attracted lots of international telecommunications players. Temasek subsidiary, Singtel, invested into Bharti in 2000. ST Telemedia, 100%-owned by Temasek, had its eyes on Idea Cellular Ltd.

Idea was founded in 1995. It was a 3G GSM Indian mobile network operator based at Mumbai. At its height in June 2018, it had a huge subscriber base of 220 million. In Dec 2004 ST Telemedia announced a joint venture with Telecoms Malaysia to acquire 47.7% share of Idea Cellular from Cingular Wireless at a price of US$390m. ST Telemedia's share in the JV was to be 60% which worked out to US234m.

"ST Telemedia and TM International to acquire 48% stake in IDEA Cellular" ...ST Telemedia

The bid had to pass the scrutiny of the Foreign Investment and Promotion Board. There was a snag.  Singtel was already holding 28% shares in Bharti, The JV would have allowed ST Telemedia a 28.7% holdings in Idea Cellular. Indian anti-trust laws prevent a company from holding more than 10% shares in more than 1 company in the same service sector. Regulatory approval could not be obtained.

Singapore Inc's scholarly minds consider Singtel and ST Telemedia two separate companies, but the smarty Indians saw the same Temasek colour. The JV wrote in to appeal by explaining Temasek's role in ST Telemedia is simply an investor. Singaporeans should by now be familiar with the official public refrain - Temasek does not interfere with the operation of its subsidiaries. Yet in all publications, Temasek has always advertised itself as an active investor. It's difficult to reconcile the two. When it comes to the crunch, it's no secret who calls the shots. Such goobledygook passes easily for divine truth with the public in Singapore, but highly legalistic Indians said "No can do'.

No amount of truth shifting explainer 101, no amount of bending backwards and placating the Indians, no CECA preferences, can change Indian minds when it comes to protecting their national interest. And so ST Telemedia came home empty-handed.

But what a blessing it was. The Indian PIPB saved Singapore taxpayers a huge sum of money. Firstly, the Indian rupee has depreciated by 100% against SGD since. ST Telemedia would have suffered tremendous translation losses. Secondly, Idea Cellular merged with Vodafone India in 2018. The share price of Vodafone Idea has slipped from about INR35 after merger to about INR8.35 today. Thirdly, the Supreme Court decision on the spectrum fees due from telecommunication companies, slapped Vodafone Idea with a bill for US$7.4b which the government intends to collect with delayed interest. And lastly, new kid on the bloc, Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd, which only opened for business 2016, is killing the competition with lower rates and swinging subscribers away from Vodafone Idea and Bharti.

Vodafone Idea is dead man walking and may fold. The Indian regulator thus saved Singapore taxpayers. Too bad for the Malaysians. Telekom Malaysia went solo and acquired 20% of Vodafone Idea for US$2b in 2018. They have taken a severe beating having disposed some of their holdings and are practically begging for someone to take the rest of the shares off them.

The Indian telecommunication market has been an extremely competitive place with cut-throat pricing. The  scene is littered with foreign regrets and big names that have quit the country include Norway's Telenor ASA, the UAE's Emirates Telecommunications Group Co, PJSC, Russia's Sistema, PJSFC,  Docomo and  AT&T. Telekom Malaysia wants to divest Vodafone Idea, and Singtel is struggling with Bharti.

Does it mean it's impossible for foreign investors to spin a $ in Indian telecommunications? In 2007 Hongkong Billionaire Li Ka Shing sold his majority share in Hutchison Essar Ltd, an Indian cellular play, to Vodafone for US$11.1b, netting him a profit of US$9b.

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Temasek Tracking - Odebrecht Oil, heavy FX losses and history's biggest bribery investigation

 

2006  Founded as Odebrecht Oleo e Gas SA (OOG)
2010  Temasek invested US$400m (Oct 2010)
2018  Name changed to Ocyan SA

Operation Car Wash :

In 2014 Brazilian police conducted Operation Car Wash, a criminal investigation into money laundering which is still ongoing. It has resulted in more than 1,000 warrants of various sorts in Brazil. The investigation expanded into corruption at very high levels of the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Panama, Mexico, Peru, and Veezuela. Those implicated and brought to justice included senators, top public officials including heads of states, prominent businessmen. In Peru, for example, past presidents Alain Garcia, Ollanta Humala, Pedro Kuczynski, Alejandro Toledo, and Keiko Fujimori are either in prison, on the run, or have committed suicide.

How one company’s deep web of corruption took down governments across Latin America ...(Washington Post 23 May 2019)

Car Wash must be the world's biggest criminal investigation. It initially started off as an investigation into the embezzlement of funds in Petrobas, estimated between US$2-13b. At the centre of all this is the Odebrecht group of companies, a huge Brazilian conglomerate established in 1944. Odebrecht is involved in diversified businesses in the fields of engineering, construction, chemicals and petrochemicals. It is privately owned by the Odebrecht family and it does a lot of huge construction in graft-ridden public works.

Between 2001-2016, Odebrecht paid USD $788 million in bribes across Latin America. Marcelo Odebrecht, the patriach that runs the family business, was arrested in 2016 and is now sitting out a 19 year jail sentence.

Temasek & OOG :

In 2010 Temasek invested US$400m for 13.6% share in Odebrecht Oleo e Gas SA (OOG), a unit in the Odebrecht group. OOG explores and produces oil and gas fields, operates rigs and provides integrated services for other companies from the sector. During the Brazilian oil boom, OOG secured many projects from the state oil company Petrobas, such as the supply of oil rigs, floating platforms, etc. The Petrobas' deals propelled OOG into the forefront of the Brazilian oil & gas industry. 

Operation Car Wash uncovered Petrobas officials received massive kick backs from contractors which included Odebrecht and Singapore's Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd. This led to the state oil company banning OOG in 2014 from further contracts. The company is forced to source for business outside of Brazil. The ban by Petronas, coupled with the fall in oil prices, was a double blow for the company.

OOG had external debts of US$3.7b. By 2015, cash crunch forced OOG to default on debt servicing. Then followed years of negotiation with creditors and banks for capital restructure. This was resolved by end 2017. In 2018 OOG renamed itself Ocyan SA and started to rebuild itself. It is now a shadow of what it once was. At its height in 2015, it employed 6,000 workers, in 2019 it was down to 2,000. It's equity was BRL3.4b in 2015 down to BRL1.9b in 2019. The goods news is Petrobas lifted its ban on the company in 2018.

The investment in 2010 put a valuation of the company at US$2.941b. There has thus been a valuation write down of 35% by 2019. As an unlisted company, such valuation write down is unlikely to be reflected in Temasek's books.  

The investment of US$400m @ 1.7135 = BRL685m (@ 1.3193 = S$520m)

Due to 213% depreciation of Brazilian Real against SGD, the investment is now worth BRL685m @ 4.13 = S$168m.

There is a massive translation loss of S$352m.

At the holding company level, the Odebrecht group is still struggling with a mountain of debt of US$13b. On 17 Jun 2019, Odebrecht filed for bankruptcy protection to restructure its capital. It is still not out of the woods with ongoing police investigation.

Was Temasek's acquisition of 13.6% of OOG an independent investment decision, or was it a business strategy for it's Singapore ship-building subsidiaries to gain greater access to the Brazilian oil market which was booming at the time? The bribery of Petrobas' officials by Odebrecht and Keppel O&M opens up the uncomfortable question of whether the complicity was only at the operating units or did it involve the investment office?

Note: Temasek's holdings of 161,456,737 shares in Ocyan is held in the name of Atlantic Oilfield Services B.V. Google search failed to show anything.

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Temasek Tracking - Burger King Brazil, a profit in R$, but losses in S$

 

This is a straight forward investment and was divested some 4 years ago. It is included in this series of Temasek Tracking to demonstrate the dangers of investing in foreign assets where currency risk is very high in certain countries. It brings into sharp focus the need to review currency risk monitoring and mitigation techniques, if any, that Temasek employs since it started to diversify its portfolio into foreign markets when Ho Ching took the helm in 2002. This need is indeed serious given the strength of the Singapore dollar against almost all other world currencies since 2002.

Temasek invested US$100m in Burger King, Brasil, in Nov 2014. This was for 32,340,800 common stocks which was divested when the company IPO in Dec 2017 @ R$18.00

The investment in 2014 was US$100m @ 2.5690 = R$256.9m (@ 1.3183 = S$194.9m).

The divestment 32,340,800 shares @ R$18 returned cashflow of R$592,134,400 which represented an impressive ROI of 134% flat in Brazilian Real terms.

However, Real has depreciated by 213% so the proceeds of R$592,134,400 @ 4.13 works out to only S$143.4m.  There was thus a realised loss of S$54.5m. 

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View an attempt to list Temasek portfolio with links to microblogs of troubled assets such as these. It's a work-in-progress that gets updated as and when they are published. If you wish to be updated on new microblogs, simply submit your email in the box on the top, right. Thank you.