THE NUMBER OF MILLIONAIRES IN SINGAPORE DEPENDS ON HOW MANY TIMES THE MONKEYS IN THE ZOO SCRATCH THEIR HEADS

I was trying to parse some numbers on wealth and millionaires and came across this old article from Mothership (23 Sep 2022). 

Mothership's views are seen as skewed in favour of the establishment. It was quick to flash this catchy and feel-good headline, careless as to veracity of the statement. Private wealth is not exactly public wealth. What if most of the private wealth is in overseas holdings, how does that make the city wealthy?  Having the 5th highest number of millionaires does not mean Singapore is the 5th wealthiest city in the world. 

Then again, earlier in 18 Aug 2022 article "S'pore's share of millionaires to grow from 7.5% in 2021 to 13.4% in 2030", Mothership stated the number of millionaires in Singapore in 2021 was 400,000, an incredible 37% difference from  their September article. Mothership was oblivious to the discrepancy as long as the headlines feel good.

Of course Mothership was simply referencing professional global wealth reports. In August it was HSBC report "The Rise of Asian Wealth" and September it was the Henley & Partner's "The 20 Wealthiest Cities in the World for 2022"  So why was there such a huge disparity of 2021 numbers of millionaires of 250,000 and 400,000 that Mothership glossed over? 

The lesson here is a small dose of skepticism and a big spoonful of critical thinking in what we read is healthy. Challenging suppositions is not being conspiratorial but the very foundation of healthy inquiry.

The reason for the huge difference of 250,000 and 400,000 millionaires has got to do with the focus, methodology, definitions and formulation of the reports. It is of course beyond outsiders to get behind these reports to observe how they are actually prepared. Private wealth excludes the net assets of the city (public wealth). Researchers cull data from various sources such as the city's statistical publications on demographics, household expenditures, savings, taxes, debts, from land registries, real estate transactions, stock exchange transactions, financial data from banks and central banks, etc. All these reports from the public domain are anonymised data which researchers feed into their system with their own algorithm and formulae. Could the formulae be based on the number of times the monkeys in the zoo scratched their heads? Of course not, but you get the point.

Apart from what may be culled from public domain, Henley's report is based on data feed from New World Wealth, a global wealth intelligence firm based in South Africa which tracks the movements and spending habits of the world’s wealthiest people. They do this based on 150,000 high net worth  individuals they maintain on their datasets. Henley's numbers for Singapore appears too low. Could it be they are skewed towards a migration and passport strength focus and downplaying on the larger indigenous population?

I have no access to HSBC's full report so unable to express any opinion on the 400,000 millionaires in 2021.

For year 2022, Henley's World Wealth Report 2023 of numbers of millionaires in various cities shows consistency with 2021. Singapore remains in 5th spot but a slightly lower number of millionaires of 240,100. With a total population of 6.2m that means 1 out of everyone 25 persons you meet on the streets is a millionaire.

On a comparative note let's look at the more popular Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2023. This report looks at wealth at country level instead. According to CS there were 332,000 millionaires in Singapore in 2022, mid-point between the figures from Henley and HSBC. Maybe relying on the number of times the monkeys in the zoo scratch their head is a better option after all. 332,000 means 1 out of every 20 persons you meet on the streets is a millionaire. Incredible.

CS report has much more details delving into micro and macro-economics. Perhaps a more meaningful gauge of  the sense of wealth is metrics on distribution per adult. Here is CS' top 20 country ranking of wealth per adult in terms of the mean (simple average) and the median (mid-point).

On the mean basis, Switzerland ranks #1 and Singapore #8. On average each adult in Singapore has a wealth of US$382,960. On the median basis, the rankings change drastically. Singapore is ranked #17 and Belgium is #1. Singapore adults have a median wealth of US$99,940. It means  US$99,940 is the middle line and one half of adults in Singapore has wealth in excess of this while the other half has less.

Inequality of wealth distribution is the reason for the change in rankings between mean and median figures. Lower gini coefficient (lower inequality) favours the country's median figure. Singapore has a very high gini coefficient of 78.8, ie very unequal wealth distribution, which explains the big difference in its mean and median ranking.

It is about the residents in Singapore, ie inclusive of Permanent Residents and long visa holders of foreigners working here. Singapore has all the positive attributes that attract immigration - pro-business government, low tax regime, low crime, good quality of life, cosmopolitan, good business climate, marvelous infrastructure, good schools, etc. and most importantly a Global Investor Program  designed for wealthy and experienced foreign entrepreneurs, business owners, and managers who are interested in starting a business or investing in Singapore and who wish to make the country their home. Singapore has been consistently seeing a net inflow of high networth individuals.

The top 3 countries that had the most net gains in high networth individuals in 2022 were UAE, Australia, and Singapore in that order. Australia has traditionally been a favourite, but UAE is fast becoming a go to country. A friend who returned recently from the COP28 Climate Summit mentioned the many Christmas decorations he saw in Dubai. Unusual for Islamic country but testimony to accommodation needed to attract international high networth individuals. In 2022, Singapore had net inflows of 2,900 compare to UAE which received net inflows of 5,200.

The countries that had the most net lost in high networth individuals in 2022 were China (10,800), Russia (8,500) and India (7,500). Most Russians and Indians headed for UAE while most Chinese to Singapore and Australia.

As a pro-establishment site, Mothership conveniently failed to explain to readers these wealth figures are not about Singaporeans. If the government brings in 1 more high networth individual, the mean wealth figure will increase, but will have no impact on the median wealth figure. The millionaire numbers will likewise increase.

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MOSCOW NARODNY BANK -- WAS THERE CLOAK & DAGGER UNDER THE NOSE OF MAS (PART 2)

MNB is a UK-domiciled bank owned by Gosbank, the central bank of USSR. It opened its Singapore branch in 1971. The USSR collapsed in 1991 and MNB was taken over by, and renamed VTB Bank, a Russian state-owned bank, in 2005.

Within 3 years, MNB's loan portfolio of US$600m was the largest amongst Singapore banks. It made quick and deep forays into the Chinese business community with cross-holdings in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Hongkong. It made the authorities in the region wary of Soviet economic expansionism as a means of influence building to counter American power in Vietnam. But was there basis for this fear or was it a simple case of overtly aggressive bank lending. After all, Teo Poh Kong, an Asst General Manager of Overseas Union, and ex-BOA executive, recruited by MNB and given a long leash to run the entire operations, had boasted they will be a top bank in no time.

I joined the bank as a junior staffer in the Internal Audit Dept in the later half of 1970s. By then the bank was in decline, having been defrauded twice, massive loan write offs, reputational disasters, all leading to diminished counter-party lines and higher cost in money market fundings. From my perch in Internal Audit, I had front row seat in what was transpiring. Soviet apparatchiks that made up the management on the 5th floor had very little experience in commercial banking. The bank's loan portfolio was basically third and fourth tier borrowers. Collateral arrangements lacked valuations and legal documentation not perfected. Credit files hardly existed. There was a complete absence of evidence of loan evaluation and approval process. 

One of the first task I did was to perform a credit audit on a group of companies that required qualifications such as to call into question the entire files in the Credit Dept. By that time, the department was manned by an entirely new team, including the manager. There was no one who was in a position to answer my audit queries. Under the circumstances, my audit coverage was extended to 28 groups. The state of affairs was an auditor's nightmare. This example illustrates the vacuum that existed. There were two borrowers etched in my memory -- Chen Kung and Sadanobu Ogawa. There were absolutely nothing in the credit files and the credit officers knew nothing. Some 20 years later long after I had left the bank, I came across an article in some magazine that mentioned Sadanobu Ogawa is the alias of Chen Kung. I presented a no-holds barred report pointing to the utter inadequacy of record maintenance, collateral imperfections, and quality of the loans.

The Russian management obviously knew the bank was in great trouble but had no idea it was that bad. I believe up to that point they had never seen such a frank and detailed audit report. Many years later I was told by HR the report impressed the Russians they wanted me transferred to the 5th floor as a special assistant. This never materialised which I put down to the throes the bank's problems were causing in Moscow that necessitated recalling the Singapore GM back to face economic crimes. There were whispers he faced the firing squad.

By the time I arrived at the bank, Teo and some other management staff had already exited. The accountant was planning his emigration to Australia. It seemed to me some shenanigans had transpired and some locals had taken the bank to the cleaners.

Was there Sovie agenda of infiltration into the region as some suspected. My opinion is nyet, very unlikely. There were no loans to politically connected persons, ruling out influence buying. Loans were to 3rd/4th tiered private borrowers, not to the top-tiered politically-connected families. That's often the route a new bank takes when it wants to expand fast. There wasn't a targeted market of strategic sectors. It's true MNB was highly exposed to the real estate sector in Singapore and Malaysia. It made some loans to the commodities sector in Indonesia which had the government concerned of the market being cornered. There were some who saw a Soviet loan trap in their ability to control liquidity and impact the economy of host country. Except it made no sense for the bank to pull the rug under their customers and hurt themselves. The USSR simply had no capability to weaponise financial muscle for political advancements. The fear was somewhat similar to today's propaganda on Chinese debt trap but it is nowhere similar in scale nor strategic base. Chinese loans are massive and primarily in strategic infrastructure and to state borrowers. MNB was more commercial lending and real estate development.

There was however the curious case of Amos Dawe. He came out of nowhere from a postal clerk to head a hotchpotch group of companies spreaded over the region. I had difficulty figuring out where his core business base was. The picture in my mind was a young man plucked out of obscurity, provided access to vast financial resources, go buy up some businesses and become the man about town. In quick time he owned a conglomerate called Mosbert group with presence across the region. It seemed to me a tangled mess of financial engineering going on with numerous inter-company borrowings meant to obscure funding sources. If he was a Manchurian candidate, there was not much strategic sense in his investments from Soviet point of view except in two ventures.

First was the floatation of a 5 month old Golden International Securities Ltd on a nascent Kowloon Stock Exchange. But that venture had all the trappings of financial fraud which involved Urban Councillor Peter Chan Po Fan, chairman of Kowloon Stock Exchange, rather than some insidious Soviet plot out to destabilise China as some Western observers suggested. 

The second venture was Dawe's attempt to buy 3 American banks in Silicon Valley - the Peninsula National Bank, the First National Bank of Fresno, and the Tahoe National Bank. In 1974 Amos Dawe had secured a US$50m facility from MNB for this purpose. The layered funding drew the attention of a Singapore-based CIA agent who tracked the transaction that culminated in Dawe being indicted for wire fraud in 1975. Whilst the US is open to bank acquisitions by anyone, Dawe's MNB backing and the layering of the payments were highly suspicious.  The Americans decided it was Soviet attempt to gain access to US technology secrets. 

CIA leaked the Soviet plot to Raymond Sacklyn, publisher of a Hong Kong financial newsletter, Target. When the story broke, MNB's relationship with Dawe ended. The bank pulled the rug and Dawe was unable to complete the bank purchases.

Dawe plea-dealed and co-operated with CIA. He admitted to acting under instructions of the Soviets. MNB denied the allegations and claimed the loans to Dawe were strictly commercial transactions.The US dropped charges in 1979. Dawe was extradited to Hongkong where he faced financial fraud charges. In 1984 he was sentenced to 5 years in prison. After that, Amos Dawe completely disappeared. Some said he was liquidated by KGB.

Did Dawe lie to save his own skin in the US, or was he fronting for the Soviets? The later has weight given purchase of US banks made no sense to Dawe's business interest in the region. If so, he seemed to be an isolated case.

There was another interesting incident which never saw the light of day and of which I had personal knowledge. This had to do with an innocuous loan to a small bookstore somewhere in Beach Road, the name of which I no longer recall. The proprietor was Mr Cho, a nonentity other than he was a younger brother of Cho Jock Kim of the old Consolidated Holdings infamy, a customer of MNB. Mr Cho drowned in Brastagi Lake, Indonesia, where he was vacationing. To sort out his affairs, the bank needed a valuation of his stocks. My assistant and I were sent out to do an inventory count in a private residential house somewhere Serangoon Gardens side of Yeo Choo Kang Road. There I was, spending 3 days in the sweltering heat crouching bare-chested in the low attic, sorting the mess of books dumped callously there. As I counted, I would yell to my colleague who did the recording in the room below. Throughout the day I was yelling "Lenin Vol 13" x 10, "Karl Marx Vol 5" x 8, "Lenin Vol 13" add another 9, and so on. There were 47 volumes of Lenin, and 48 volumes of Karl Marx. 90% of the inventory was Lenin and Marx. Mind you, they were all hardcover books.

When the task was done I submitted the count list to the credit officer in charge. It was a pointless task as anyone with a half brain could see the inventory of communist ideology books were not worth the paper they were printed on. It was in fact illegal to sell such books in those days. As if to reinforce this point, a fairly well-known Indian lawyer was charged about that time for possession of a Karl Marx book. Since the gentleman practiced out of an office in Beach Road, I assumed he bought the book from Mr Cho's bookstore. The first question really is why should someone set up shop to sell something for which there is no real market? I could only comprehend it as an accommodation for the loans extended to Consolidated Holdings. Obviously the apparatchiks needed to promote communist ideologies on the bye. The second question is why was the bookstore allowed to sell banned books?

Was the MAS sensitive to the activities of MNB? I have no idea except I recall there was one inspection conducted by the central bank. I had no interaction with the inspection team.

Two years into my job at the bank, I realised MNB had set up an office for Dennis Lee, a  partner in law firm Messrs Lee & Lee. He was put on a retainer. Dennis, of course, was the brother of Lee Kuan Yew. Was that influence buying or what, I have no idea.

Now there was one huge-sized officer at the bank whom I shall call 'K'. He was in military intel during his national service days. Outwardly he was anti-establishment, bad-mouthing the government every which way. I sensed it was all a facade and secretly he was collecting info for whatever his purpose. Many years after leaving the bank, K stood for election under an opposition banner and lost. Somehow I still felt he was a PAP plant. K came across as obnoxious for almost everyone in the bank and none really wanted any social chat with him. For some reason, he favored my company, but I sensed he was really taxing my brain on the bank's loan affairs. Several months after I left the bank, I received a call from K who inquired if I would please have lunch with a certain 'WMM' who was once a partner in the law firm Lee & Lee. K explained WMM had some questions regarding MNB. My antennae shot up immediately, but since I was no longer an employee, ethics of confidentiality no longer apply. Out of curiosity I accepted the invitation. However, it turned out to be a non-event. I expected an interrogation but all I faced was just some polite innocent questions. There was no deep probing. I did not know what to make of that meeting.

I believe MNB was run as a commercial bank, not as conduit for Soviet cloak and dagger adventurism. But when the need arises, those they coddled can be compromised to accommodate their agenda. Amos Dawe and the bookstore at Beach Road certainly fit the bill. MNB's massive loan problem was the result of a reckless expansion phase of quantity over quality, of clueless Soviet apparatchiks out of KGB masquerading as management, and the key to the vault in the hands of a single local manager, the good old Teo Poh Kong. I think the fear decades ago, of the Soviets using MNB cash to subvert and destabilise the region, is the same as today's debt trap xenophobia attached to China's loans to African states and countries involved in the One Belt One Road project. 


Coming up - Part 3 (Wirecard)

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NUGAN HAND BANK -- WAS THERE CLOAK & DAGGER UNDER THE NOSE OF MAS (PART I)

No matter how strict the banking regulators, how incorruptible and well-qualified its personnel, and how good the legislation, no country is spared the occasional crisis of financial fraud, huge credit defaults, money-laundering, and bank failures.

Singapore has had its fair share. The worst on the patch was the 1995 failure of Barings Bank due to fraudulent options trading conducted by its Singapore branch. Much has been written and spoken about the affair but none has ever suggested attribution to regulatory failure. In my humble opinion, a policy meant to shield MAS personnel from influence buying takes some blame. During my time in the banking industry, MAS personnel were basically forbidden to accept even lunch invitations from the banking fraternity. Their absence from the drinking holes and other socialising functions meant they were like generals commanding from HQ, unwary of what's going on in the foxholes. They do not have their hands on the pulse, thus missing out on critical intel. For example, in the case of Barings, regulatory personnel had no idea what the market had long suspected was going on at their options trading desk. MAS was two or three steps behind.

More serious a matter is where a financial entity is being operated by foreign governments or agents for cloak and dagger operations. Has there been any in Singapore?

I blogged about Nugan Hand Bank last year in the article on "Truman shows".

"Back in 1978 when I was working in a bank, I had lunch with a friend one day. I shall conceal any trace to ID this friend. Just suffice to say I found him a very mysterious and mystical character given to access to some information that few have. He seems to have a knack for any subject matter that creeps up in idle conversation and acquainted either directly or indirectly with personalities referenced. I had long suspected him to be working for some Intelligence organisation. On his part, he enjoys my company because he said, unlike most ordinary folks, I could engage him in all sorts of unusual subject matter, a compliment I attribute to my scattered interests and I was widely read at the time, devouring magazines like Newsweek, The Economist, Time Magazine, Financial Times etc.

Over lunch that day, I brought up the matter of Nugan Hand Bank opening a branch in Singapore. He asked what I thought of the matter. I felt it strange that MAS should approve the licence for a bank that had hardly any history (it was incorporated in Australia in 1973), without any reciprocity which has been MAS policy, and owned by a couple of guys no one in the industry knew. He told me he knew one of the co-founders, Michael Hand, back in Vietnam War days. According to him, Hand was a decorated Green Beret, but was already dabbling in drugs during the war. Nugan Hand was set up as CIA banker, sourcing funds from drug operations. Today one can google and dive deep into the CIA-drugs-gun running-money laundering operations of Nugan Hand. But back in 1978 we had no access to any info. Of course I took my friend's claims with a pinch of salt. Then to my amazement, in 1980 Frank Nugan, the partner of Hand, was found dead in a car in Australia, execution style. The bank collapsed in 1980 under a cloud of massive fraud and criminal activities including drug trafficking. Hand disappeared, lots of international investigation and inquiries, but no one went to jail. Except one - the accountant Mr. Tan who ended up in Singapore jail on account of the fact he was the Local Principal of the branch. Innocent chap, the sacrificial goat to close the chapter in Singapore."

As to why MAS issued a banking licence to a practically unheard of entity which operated a branch in the Golden Triangle of Burma, let's just label it under "mystery".

To make sense of all these, we should take a look at how MAS handled another interesting foreign bank application. BCCI was founded by Pakistani private banker Agha Hasan Abedi. It was incorporated in Luxembourg in 1972 . It counted Middle Eastern royalties amongst its shareholders. At its height, BCCI was one of the largest private banking groups in the world with a presence in 69 countries.

BCCI desired to set up a branch in Singapore and submitted an application for an offshore banking licence in 1973. It was rejected as the bank had no track record. In following years, BCCI doggedly sent their executives to meet MAS managers. One such lobbyist was Van Oenen, head of BOA Singapore, who was one time a BCCI director when BOA was a shareholder. Van Oenen was well-known to MAS, having helped advise the setting up of the Asian Currency Unit. In 1980 BCCI re-applied unsuccessfully. MAS rejected BCCI again, this time on grounds of its poor international standing. Van Oenen met with Dy PM Goh Keng Swee and Finance Minister Hon Sui Sen to appeal for reconsideration. MAS re-studied the status of BCCI and denied the request. BCCI tried again in 1985 with a letter of recommendation from British PM Harold Wilson to Lee Kuan Yew. Once again, MAS did not approve the application.

MAS' decision had considered feedback from banks and regulators in the jurisdictions where BCCI operated, advices of other central bankers and international banks, and its own instincts when reviewing the bank. One key issue was BCCI used different auditors in different branches and there was a lack of consolidated supervision. MAS stressed their decisions were never "dazzled or intimidated by well-known names or high-powered connections", or majority opinion, but strictly disciplined on "principles of ensuring that any institution admitted to Singapore must have high prudential standards, a strong international reputation, and management with integrity."

MAS was proven right when BCCI collapsed in 1991 with US$15b missing from its balance sheet, making it the biggest bank fraud in world history. The bank moved dark and dirty money of mafias, human and drug traffickers, weapons' traders, corrupt money of dictators and despots. It loaned huge sums to shareholders.

In his memoir, Lee Kuan Yew mentioned this episode. He had concluded Harold Wilson's letter was merely a pro-forma he signed doing someone a favor. It was not a personal appeal to him. He had observed the endearment "Yours Sincerely" was type written. It should have been hand written in a personal letter. On that score he supported MAS' decision to reject the BCCI yet again. One wonders had the letter been personal, would Lee Kuan Yew have been 'dazzled' by Harold Wilson's recommendations and override MAS' decision?

MAS' disciplined approach to vet applicants is to be lauded. But the question no one asks is why did it not apply in the case of Nugan Hand Bank? In fact, Nugan Hand was not an isolated case. The same level of rigour in assessing applicants was also not applied in the case of Tat Lee Bank.


Coming up -  Part 2 (Moscow Narodny Bank)

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VACCINE INJURY RISKS SHOCKINGLY HIGHER THAN WHAT'S BEEN TOLD

You can bet your last dollar and your house that none of these folks above, nor any other high profile personalities, really took the novel mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. They were all given saline solutions. The reason is very simple. Should any of these publicity stunts go awry with a Suspected Adverse Event (SAE) and heaven forbids, a death, the whole vaccination drive collapses. The risk to Big Pharma, not the actors, is just too big.

In November 2021, the head nurse of the University Medical Center in Ljubljana, Slovenia, resigned from her job and made a public announcement that based on her personal work routines, she claimed the novel Covid-19 vaccines came in 3 different markings. The ones marked "1" are saline solutions used as placebo for VIPs which accounted for 30% of the vaccines. Everyone else gets either those marked "2" or "3". Number 2 is classical RNA. The number 3 is an RNA stick that contains the oncogene associated with the adenovirus, which contributes to the development of cancer. Her short video clip is here.

The video caused a scandalous uproar in Slovenia. As it turned out, the 'chief nurse' was a Slovenian anti-vaxxer activist named.Vera Kanalec. The chief nurse of the University of Ljubljana Medical Center is Zdenka Mrak who has not resigned from her job. My point for showing this video is to highlight what the fake nurse said in November 2021 : 

* 30% of vaccines are placebos
* Vaccines are identified by 3 different markers

The initial novel vaccine narrative was "it will prevent a vaccinated person from catching Covid-19 and prevent the spread of the disease". When this was proven false, the narrative evolved to "it will prevent a vaccinated person from developing serious effects when infected". It is incredible a gullible world could not see through the new narrative for what is obviously an unfalsifiable fallacy.


The Danish study:

Due to Emergency Use Authorization, rapid production of Covid-19 novel vaccine and implementation of large-scale vaccination programs, there has been many reports of contamination and inconsistencies in toxicity levels and ingredients. There is also lack of reports on clinical data on individual vaccine batch levels. Consequently, there is no assurance of homogeneity of vaccine efficacy across all batches. If indeed this were so, then good luck to you as risk of SAE depends on which batch the dose that was injected into your deltoid came from.

A trio of researchers Max Schmeling, Vibeke Manniche and Peter Riis Hansen did a study on whether safety is batch-dependent using the Danish experience. Their peer-reviewed report was published by European Journal of Clinical Investigation on 30 Mar 2023. (Here).

The Danish Data :-
Period covered - 27 December 2020 to 11 January 2022)
Population - 5.8m

Numbers vaccinated - 4,026,575
Vaccine - BNT162b2 (Pfizer)
Number of batches - 52 (2340 to 814,320 doses per batch)
Doses administered - 10,793,766 doses
Total SAEs (Suspected Adverse Events) - 66,587 (some had no batch labels)
Total SAEs batch identified - 61,847
Total severe SAEs - 14,509 (23.5%)
SAE-related deaths - 579 (0.9%)

SAEs are classified into severity levels of (A) non-serious, (B) serious (hospitalization or prolongation of existing hospitalization, life-threatening illness, permanent disability or congenital malformation), and (C) SAE-related death.
For each batch, SAEs per 1,000 doses is computed.
The 2 variables of the 52 batches tracked are (a) SAEs per 1,000 and (b) number of doses per batch.

The unanalysed chart (each dot represents a single vaccine batch) :

Some statistics gibberish here. (Doesn't matter if you are not familiar with these):
Since the observed relationship between the numbers of SAEs and BNT162b2 vaccine doses was highly heterogeneous, conventional regression statistics were not considered to be applicable. Therefore, heterogeneity in the relationship between the numbers of SAEs and doses per vaccine batch was assessed by log-transformation followed by non-hierarchical cluster analysis and general linear model (GLM) test for differences in SAE rates between batches. Reporting of the study conforms to broad EQUATOR guidelines.

The analysed chart (each dot represents a single vaccine batch) :

Three regression or trend lines become apparent:
Blue line - the batches have high SAEs per 1,000 doses (means higher toxicity) and low number of doses per batch.
Green line - the batches have lower SAEs per 1,000 doses (means lower toxicity) and high number of doses per batch.
Yellow - the batches have no SAEs per 1,000 doses.

Danish vaccination reporting system provides anonymized data. Researchers can access individual information without medical privacy issues. Each batch data point can be further analysed to SAE severity levels of (i) total SAEs, (ii) serious and (iii) SAE-related deaths.

Interpretation:

The blue batches make up only a small 4.22% of total doses, but account for 70% of all SAEs (27% of those vaccinated with serious SAEs  and 47% deaths, were caused by blue batches.)

The green batches make up the majority with 64% of total doses, but account for only 29% of all SAEs (72% of those vaccinated with serious SAEs  and 52% deaths, were caused by green batches.)

The yellow batches make up 32% of total doses, but account for almost zero SAEs.


What can be inferred ?

1. There is no doubt whatsoever the Yellow batches are placebos.

2. The Blue batches have the highest toxicity but lower doses in each batch. Small but pack a lot of punch. This is intended to do the worse targeted damage. The fact blue batches make up only slightly less than 5% of total doses is highly suspicious. In statistical analysis, 5% is generally used as the threshold for significance testing. Anything higher draws attention and deeper scrutiny. For example, if someone has a winning formula for a casino game, if he attempts to win every game, he will be discovered fairly quickly by security. In WWII, when Britain broke into Nazi Germany's Enigma code which enabled it to locate enemy submarines, they only targeted 5% of the U-boats. Had Britain attacked all enemy submarines, then the Germans would have realised their Enigma code has been broken.

3. The percentages seem to fall into common categories of 5%, 30%, 50%, 60%, 70%. This does not seem accidental, but human connivance.

Calculate your risks:

Unless you are the privileged few to take placebos, and you are the smarter ones to want to know what is the risks now that data is available, let's review how you play with your life.

(a) Your overall chance of getting a Suspected Adverse Event is 1 out of 174, of getting a serious SAE is 1 out of 744, and of death is 1 out of 18,642.

(b) You have technically 32% chance of getting a placebo, a 64% chance of getting a toxic dose (green batch) and a tough luck 4% chance of getting a highly toxic dose (blue batch).

(c) If you are given a placebo, there will be no SAE. The SAE and death numbers are probably due to statistical anomalies from small population numbers.

(d) If you get the toxic dose, you have  1 out of 385 chance of getting SAE, a very very high 50% chance your SAE is serious, with a high 1 out of 59 chance of death.

(e) If your luck ran out and you got the highly toxic dose, you have a very high 1 out of 10 chance of getting an SAE. In which case, you have 1 out of 11 chance the SAE is serious and 1 out of 160 chance of death.

If the Danish data is universal, would you have taken the jab had you better understood the odds? Is 1 out of 18,642 chance of dying from a jab fine with you? Mind you, the Danish experience data is interesting for the fact their population base is fairly similar with Singapore's. 

Given a low probability of catching Covid if one takes all precautions, and an extremely low fatality rate of less than 1%, would you have taken the novel vaccine in light of what this Danish study shows?  Let's not even take into consideration long term unknowns.

Had the government known about this risk profile and not advised the public, it is malfeasance, and in the case of death, it is culpable homicide. 

The inevitable question:

Now how in the world can that fake nurse know in November 2011 that 30% of the vaccines were placebos. If this was a coincidence, how did she know there are 3 classifications of vaccines based on the level of toxicity?

Conclusion:

The Danish study proves there is no batch homogeneity. The percentages seem to betray human connivance. The statistics seem to indicate intention to cause harm. The risk of serious SAEs including deaths with the the blue and green batches, are unexceptionally high, but averaged out overall presents a more acceptable risk level. But with no batch homogeneity, the Swedish study shows the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine is batch-dependent. This is a critical piece of information that has not been presented to the medical community.

The Danish data carries a caveat of biased reporting. Just as the VAERS are notoriously under-reported, so too the data in this study, especially pertaining to vaccine deaths. The risk figures from this study could potentially be worse than shown here.

The US has the VAERS which has online information available for downloading. In Denmark, vaccine batches are registered by the Danish Serum Institute and all SAE cases with corresponding vaccine batch labels are reported to the Danish Medical Agency (DKMA) and classified by the DKMA according to SAE seriousness. The DKMA-managed spontaneous SAE reporting system accepts reports of SAEs from any source, for example healthcare providers, patients and other members of the public. Anonymised data are available for downloading by the public.

Singapore obviously has some similar reporting systems in place. But Singapore data is not available to the public.


Note:
My bad. I had been mentioning Swedish report when it should have been Danish. now edited. (11 Dec 2023). 

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TALES FROM GABRIEL - MARY AND THE BIRTH OF JESUS

'Tales From Gabriel' is a collection of myths, legends, fables or stories I am collating, each of which are interesting on its own, but more fascinating is, a few hundred or thousand years later, they landed on the pages of the Holy Book of Islam. The Quran, supposedly compiled in the 7th century, is the spoken word of God conveyed to His Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him. These tales are post-fact canonised. Have they been plagiarised into Truth? Opinions are strictly personal.

It's that magical time of the year again. The nativity scene is an ever present iconic display in shopping centres all over the world during the festive December season. It is a scene that has been painted by many famous artists through the ages since the Italian Renaissance. Mother Mary and new born Jesus are portrayed in the manger surrounded by angels, saints, cherubins, kings, etc in all sorts of themes. The reality is, nobody else, except Joseph, was there. Most definitely, the three wise men from the East were not there. They arrived two years too late. 

The most famous painting was Caravaggio's 360-year-old masterpiece, "The Nativity with St. Francis and St. Lawrence". This $100m painting was stolen from the Oratory of San Lorenzo, Palermo, Italy one rainy night in 1969 and has never been seen ever since.

Caravaggio's Nativity with St. Francis and St. Lawrence

True to the minimalist view, Luke 2.7 (KJV) :

"And she brought forth her firstborn son, and wrapped him in swaddling clothes, and laid him in a manger; because there was no room for them in the inn."

Sans other details, it is assumed Jesus was born IN the manger. Mary and Joseph had travelled from their home in Nazareth to Bethlehem in order to register to pay a new tax decreed by Caesar. All the inns were full and the couple had to shelter in the manger. But to be spot on, some shepherds came probably a few days later. These shepherds were out in the fields watching their flocks by night. An angel appeared and told them of the birth of The Saviour that they can find in a manger wrapped in swaddling clothes. They decided to go Bethlehem to visit.

Quran, surah 19:16-27

So she conceived him and withdrew with him to a remote place.
Then the pains of labour drove her to the trunk of a palm tree. She cried, “Alas! I wish I had died before this, and was a thing long forgotten!”
So a voice reassured her from below her, “Do not grieve! Your Lord has provided a stream at your feet.
And shake the trunk of this palm tree towards you, it will drop fresh, ripe dates upon you.
So eat and drink, and put your heart at ease. But if you see any of the people, say, ‘I have vowed silence to the Most Compassionate, so I am not talking to anyone today.’”
Then she returned to her people, carrying him. They said ˹in shock˺, “O Mary! You have certainly done a horrible thing!

The Quran adds two miracles to sustain Mary - a palm tree and a stream. Could the idea of giving birth under a palm tree and refreshing water have come from Gospel of Pseudo-Matthews?

Pseudo-Matthews chap 21:

"And it came to pass on the third day of their journey, while they were walking, that the blessed Mary was fatigued by the excessive heat of the sun in the desert; and seeing a palm tree, she said to Joseph: Let me rest a little under the shade of this tree. Joseph therefore made haste, and led her to the palm, and made her come down from her beast. And as the blessed Mary was sitting there, she looked up to the foliage of the palm, and saw it full of fruit, and said to Joseph: I wish it were possible to get some of the fruit of this palm. And Joseph said to her: I wonder that you say this, when you see how high the palm tree is; and that you think of eating of its fruit. I am thinking more of the want of water, because the skins are now empty, and we have none wherewith to refresh ourselves and our cattle. Then the child Jesus, with a joyful countenance, reposing in the bosom of His mother, said to the palm: O tree, bend your branches, and refresh my mother with your fruit. And immediately at these words the palm bent its top down to the very feet of the blessed Mary; and they gathered from it fruit, with which they were all refreshed. And after they had gathered all its fruit, it remained bent down, waiting the order to rise from Him who had commanded it to stoop. Then Jesus said to it: Raise yourself, O palm tree, and be strong, and be the companion of my trees, which are in the paradise of my Father; and open from your roots a vein of water which has been hid in the earth, and let the waters flow, so that we may be satisfied from you. And it rose up immediately, and at its root there began to come forth a spring of water exceedingly clear and cool and sparkling. And when they saw the spring of water, they rejoiced with great joy, and were satisfied, themselves and all their cattle and their beasts. Wherefore they gave thanks to God."

The Gospel of Pseudo-Matthew was written sometime in mid-6th century, thus preceding the Quran. However, Pseudo-Matthew was itself copied from a 2nd century product Protoevangelium of James. Considered a heretical writing, the James protogospel was condemned by Pope Innocent I in 405 AD and rejected by the Gelasian Decree around 500 AD. It is believed Pseudo-Matthew was Protoevangelium of James recycled with offending parts edited out. Chap 21 of the palm trees and water is an addition found only in Pseudo-Matthew. 

Where could the inspiration for palm tree and water come from? Professor Suleiman Ali Mourad* suggested a good candidate is the mythology of the birth of  the Greek and Roman God, Apollo. In Greek mythology, the Titans were the earlier group of gods that were defeated by the Olympians. The king of Olympian pantheon, Zeus, had eyes on Leto, a Titan goddess. When Leto became pregnant, Hera, the wife of Zeus, was infuriated. She cast a spell on Leto that no land will let her set foot on to deliver her child. Leto finally was able to land on the floating island of Delos. Leto had  twins. The first born was daughter Artemis who was delivered without difficulty. Hera then caused Leto a painful 9 days to deliver Apollo. Leto sat down under a palm tree where the River Inopus flows seasonally with the flooding of the Nile. The delivery was so painful Leto had her arms wrapped around the palm tree.

The Greek mythology could itself be transferred from an earlier Egyptian story. The Greek historian Herodotus (484-425 BC) is known as the 'father of history', being the first man to have written a historical book called 'The Histories' which narrated an account of the Greco-Persian wars. The word 'history' was coined by him.

Herodotus' account of contemporary pilgrimage by Egyptians to temples in the Egyptian Delta:

"This is the story of Psammetichus' conquest of Egypt. I have often made mention of the Egyptian oracle, and I will now treat fully of it, for this it deserves. This Egyptian oracle is in a temple sacred to Leto, and is situated in a great city by the Sebennytic arm of the Nile, on the way upon from the sea. The name of the city where is this oracle is Buto; I have already named it. In Buto there is a temple of Apollo and Artemis. The shrine of Leto in which is the oracle is itself very great, and its outer court is ten fathoms high. But I will now tell of what was the most marvellous among things visible there: in this precinct is the shrine of Leto, whereof the height and length of the walls is all made of a single stone slab; each wall has an equal length and height, namely, forty cubits. Another slab makes the surface of the roof, the cornice of which is four cubits broad.

Thus then the shrine is the most marvellous of all things that I saw in this temple; but of things of lesser note, the most wondrous is the island called Chemmis. This lies in a deep and wide lake near to the temple at Buto, and the Egyptians say that it floats. For myself I never saw it float, nor move at all, and I thought it a marvellous tale, that an island should truly float. However that be, there is a great shrine of Apollo thereon, and three altars stand there; many palm trees grow in the island, and other trees too, some yielding fruit and some not. The story told by the Egyptians to show why the island moves is this: when Typhon came seeking through the world for the son of Osiris, Leto, being one of the eight earliest gods, and dwelling in Buto where this oracle of hers is, received Apollo in charge from Isis and hid him for safety in this island which was before immovable but is now said to float. Apollo and Artemis were (they say) children of Dionysus and Isis, and Leto was made their nurse and preserver; in Egyptian, Apollo is Horus, Demeter Isis, Artemis Bubastis. It was from this and no other legend that Aeschylus son of Euphorion stole an imagination, which is in no other poet, that Artemis was the daughter of Demeter. For the aforesaid reason (say the Egyptians) the island was made to float. Such is the tale."

It would seem the Greek-Roman mythology appropriated the Egyptian story. In Pseudo-Matthew, Jesus had already been born. The inclusion of palm tree in Pseudo-Matthew suggests a Greek-Roman and not Egyptian origin. And typical of gospel narratives, Pseudo-Matthew created the miracles of palm tree bending and water flowing. It would seem the Quran appropriated from Pseudo-Matthew and changed the miracle of water flowing and birth under the palm tree. 

Ancient stories of important persons born under sacred trees come with miracles or something unusual were common.  Palm trees, while not exactly sacred, are held with great respect in Middle East. Queen Mayadevi gave birth to Gautama Buddha under a sal tree in the Garden of Lumbini, Nepal, in 621 BC. The sal tree is a Hindu sacred tree. She delivered the baby standing up and holding on to the tree.

It is not uncommon in history for one culture to appropriate a story from another culture and rebrand it to suit their purpose, or for the stories to diverge differently through passage of time. For example, when Constantine Christianised the Roman Empire, the birth of Christ was celebrated on December 25th to coincide with the celebration of the rebirth of Sol Invictus, the Roman Pagan Sun God. Both Protoevangelium of James and Pseudo-Matthew were written when Roman culture had dominance and influence, narratives had to be tempered for wider mass consumption.  

However, it is one thing to appropriate myths, legends and stories and bastardise them in non-scriptural works, it is an entirely different matter to canonise them as did the Quran.



* Some part of this blog is distilled from research paper by Prof Suleiman Ali Mourad titled 'From Hellenism to Christianity and Islam: The Origin of the Palm tree Story concerning Mary and Jesus in the Gospel of Pseudo-Matthew and the Qur'an'. Prof Mourad's research and publications focus on medieval Islamic history and religious thought, including jihad ideology, sacredness of Jerusalem, Qur'anic studies, and the presentation of Jesus and Mary in the Qur'an and Islamic tradition.

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TALES FROM GABRIEL - ABEL AND CAIN

'Tales From Gabriel' is a collection of myths, legends, fables or stories I am collating, each of which are interesting on its own, but more fascinating is, a few hundred or thousand years later, they landed on the pages of the Holy Book of Islam. The Quran, supposedly compiled in the 7th century, is the spoken word of God conveyed to His Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him. These tales are post-fact canonised. Have they been plagiarised into Truth? Opinions are strictly personal.

Genesis 4 tells the story of Abel and Cain, the first two of Adam and Eve's three children. Cain was the first born who tilled the land. Abel tended to the flocks. For an offering to their Lord, Cain brought some fruits and Abel brought some portion of the first born in his flock. The Lord was pleased with Abel's offering. Cain was angry out of jealousy and one day in the fields, he killed his brother.

The LORD said, "What have you done? Listen! Your brother's blood cries out to me from the ground. Now you are under a curse and driven from the ground, which opened its mouth to receive your brother's blood from your hand. When you work the ground, it will no longer yield its crops for you. You will be a restless wanderer on the earth." Cain was fearful that anyone who finds him would kill him. Then the LORD put a mark on Cain so that no one who find him would kill him

That is the short and simple story in the Bible. The Quran carries the same story but with 2 additions.

Quran, surah 5:27-30 The original story:
(as translated by Quran.com)

Relate to them in truth ˹O Prophet˺ the story of Adam’s two sons—how each offered a sacrifice: one’s offering was accepted while the other’s was not, so he threatened ˹his brother˺, “I will kill you!” His brother replied, “Allah only accepts ˹the offering˺ of the sincerely devout.
If you raise your hand to kill me, I will not raise mine to kill you, because I fear Allah—the Lord of all worlds.
I want to let you bear your sin against me along with your other sins, then you will be one of those destined to the Fire. And that is the reward of the wrongdoers.”
Still, the other convinced himself to kill his own brother, so he killed him—becoming a loser.

Quran, surah 5:31 A sub-story of a crow burying a dead crow:
(as translated by Quran.com)

Then Allah sent a crow digging ˹a grave˺ in the ground ˹for a dead crow˺, in order to show him how to bury the corpse of his brother. He cried, “Alas! Have I ˹even˺ failed to be like this crow and bury the corpse of my brother?” So he became regretful.

Quran, surah 5:32 A moral exegesis:
(as translated by Quran.com)

That is why We ordained for the Children of Israel that whoever takes a life—unless as a punishment for murder or mischief in the land—it will be as if they killed all of humanity; and whoever saves a life, it will be as if they saved all of humanity. ˹Although˺ Our messengers already came to them with clear proofs, many of them still transgressed afterwards through the land.

The story is lifted off the Bible albeit worded differently, but where did the 2 additional verses come from? Western scholars have written about this and concluded the additional verses came from talmudic literature. For some understanding of talmudic literature, this model is helpful.

Oral traditions existed for thousands of years. It got written down progressively over a period of time. It is very difficult to refer to the Torah for any specific law. The Talmud solved this problem by arranging the laws according to subject matter.

The Talmud originally consisted of only the Mishnah. The Gemara was added later on, also progressively over time. Jewish rabbinical inquiry by normative methodology uses a series of questions in all situations. For example, after killing Abel, what did Cain do? Did he bury his brother? Where did he learn about burial? etc. Stories were created for illustration purposes for which there are many. These are not Biblical stories and anyone not familiar with the Jewish Bible and overhearing them narrated in public spaces could easily mistake them for materials from Scripture.

In Midrash (explanation) Tanhuma: 
“After Cain slew Abel, the body laid outstretched upon the earth, since Cain did not know how to dispose of it. Thereupon the Holy One, blessed be He, selected two clean birds and caused one of them to kill the other. The surviving bird dug the earth with its talons and buried its victim. Cain learned from this what to do. He dug a grave and buried Abel. It is because of this that birds are privileged to cover their blood.”

In Pirḳe de-R. Eliezer chap 21:
This is a midrash attributed to Eliezer ben Hurcanus, a prominent rabbi in the 1st and 2nd century.
“The dog which was guarding Abel’s flock also guarded his corpse from all the beasts of the field and all the fowl of the heavens. Adam and his helpmate were sitting and weeping and mourning for him, and they did not know what to do (with Abel), for they were unaccustomed to burial. A raven (came), one of its fellow birds was dead (at its side). (The raven) said, ‘I will teach this man what to do.’ It took its fellow and dug in the earth, hid it and buried it before them. Adam said ‘Like this raven will I act.’ He took the corpse of Abel and dug in the earth and buried it.”

In Mishnah, Sanhedrin 4:5b
“For so we have found it with Cain that slew his brother, for it is written, the bloods of thy brother cry. It says not ‘the blood of thy brother,’ but the bloods of thy brother. – his blood and the blood of his posterity. (Another saying is: Bloods of thy brother – because his blood was cast over the trees and stones.) Therefore, but a single man was created in the world, to teach that if any man has caused a single soul to perish from Israel scripture imputes to him as if he had caused a whole world to perish; and if any man saves alive a single soul from Israel scripture imputes it to him as if he had saved alive a whole world.”

Comments:

There is an excellent Islamic apologetic in Islamic-awareness.org. Basically their contention is the Quran preceded these talmudic writings and therefore it is exactly the reverse, i.e., that the Bible in fact copied from Islam. I like this apologetic article for it is a scholastic historical criticism of the claims of Western scholars, unlike the usual hysterical reaction of vitriol and threats to any views critical of Islam. But is there an aorta of truth in that view? 

My personal opinion of the Islamic-awareness.org refutation is :

1. Western scholars are aware these specific Talmudic passages are dated 7th/8th century. However, the oral traditions from which they were based are from thousands of years earlier.

2. Were this an isolated incident, it might have been viewed differently. However, the fact is there are way too many instances of parallelism of Quran to Biblical and non-Biblical Christian stories and legends.

3. There is no complete extant manuscript of the Quran from 7th/8th century. The final complete Quran in more or less current form was compiled sometime in the 9th/10th century.

Note:
According to Islamic narrative, the first caliph after Muhammad's death in 632 AD, Abu Bakr, had compiled a copy of the Quran which was entrusted to Hafsah, the 4th wife of the prophet. (It was narrated by Muhammad ibn Ishaaq she kept it under her bed and some part was chewed by a sheep). The 3rd caliph Uthman, had copies made which were sent to 5 different cities. All these would be 7th century manuscripts. None of these are available today..

Ancient incomplete manuscripts in bits and pieces have been found. The earlier ones are :

Tübingen fragment - kept in Tubingen, Germany. Dated 641 - 671 AD.
Sana'a Manuscript - kept in Yemen. Dated before 671 AD.
Codex Parisino-petropolitanus - kept partly in Paris, Moscow and Vatican City.  Made up about 45% of the text. Dated 7th or 8th century.
Topkapi Manuscript - Kept in Istanbul, Turkey. Dated 8th century.
Samarkand Kufic Quran - kept in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Dated 795-855 AD.

Carbon dating of manuscripts are unreliable because the ink cannot be tested. It is only the animal skin parchments that are tested. In ancient times, these writing materials are washed and recycled all the time. So the writings could have come much later. 

What is most significant is a quote from Gerd Rüdiger Puin, a German scholar of Oriental studies, specializing in Quranic palaeography, Arabic calligraphy and orthography. He headed a restoration project commissioned by the Yemeni government to study and catalogue the Sana'a Manuscript.

In a 1999 article published in the American magazine The Atlantic, Gerd R. Puin has been interviewed and quoted as saying that:

"My idea is that the Quran is a kind of cocktail of texts that were not all understood even at the time of Muhammad. Many of them may even be a hundred years older than Islam itself. Even within the Islamic traditions there is a huge body of contradictory information, including a significant Christian substrate; one can derive a whole Islamic anti-history from them if one wants.

The Quran claims for itself that it is 'mubeen,' or 'clear,' but if you look at it, you will notice that every fifth sentence or so simply doesn't make sense. Many Muslims—and Orientalists—will tell you otherwise, of course, but the fact is that a fifth of the Quranic text is just incomprehensible. This is what has caused the traditional anxiety regarding translation. If the Quran is not comprehensible—if it can't even be understood in Arabic—then it's not translatable. People fear that. And since the Quran claims repeatedly to be clear but obviously is not—as even speakers of Arabic will tell you—there is a contradiction. Something else must be going on."

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TALES FROM GABRIEL - ALEXANDER THE GREAT

'Tales From Gabriel' is a collection of myths, legends, fables or stories I am collating, each of which are interesting on its own, but more fascinating is, a few hundred or thousand years later, they landed on the pages of the Holy Book of Islam. The Quran, supposedly compiled in the 7th century, is the spoken word of God conveyed to His Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him. These tales are post-fact canonised. Have they been plagiarised into Truth? Opinions are strictly personal.

Of all the larger than life figures in antiquity, there is none other than Alexander the Great who had his extraordinary exploits further amplified by legends. To explain in today's lingo, Alexander's exploits went viral, thanks to the legends.

What does Alexander the Great have to do with the Quran? What does it explain about Lee Kuan Yew's house at No 38 Oxley Road? And why did a learned ISIS recruiter left Islam after learning the legends? Let the miller weave his tale. 

The historicity of Alexander the Great

The above feature image of Alexander in battle against the Persian King Darius III is a reconstructed painting of a mosaic in Pompeii.

Alexander (356 – 323 BC) was the son of Phillip II, King of Macedonia, Greece. He succeeded his father at age 20 in 336 BC and thereafter spent almost his entire young life in military campaigns.

Greece consisted of several independent city states, constantly at war with each other. Within 1 year, Alexander had control over almost all of Greece, and achieved his father's pan-Hellenistic dream. He then moved East into the Balkans and then South into Phrygia (present day Turkey).  Phrygia's capital Gordium is where the legend of the Gordian Knot was set. The knot was said to be impossible to untie. Anyone who can untie it was destined king of the world. Alexander simply used his sword to cut it loose. By 332 BC he had taken Gaza. (And by the way he didn't see any people known as Palestinians there). Next he turned West and took Egypt where he laid the foundation for the great city of Alexandria in 331 BC, a city whose name has never changed to this day.

On the fringe of the present day Libya, Alexander turned south for the city of Ammon. Take a mental note of this desert city for it has significance in my tale. Ammon lies on a huge depression in the desert so it sits on a great water basin. Thus there are numerous oasis. Where there is water, there is life. The region was inhabited by an indigenous African people the Romans called Berber. It was a term for all other people who were neither Hellenistic nor Egyptians living in the Maghreb, the Northern coastal regions of Africa, present day Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. These were the people who conquered the Iberian Peninsula (Spain) and ruled for 800 years where they were known as Moors. Shakespeare's Othello was a Moor. The Berbers eventually got Arabicised and assumed Arab identity.

Ammon has an eponymous god with an Oracle at Siwa. The god Ammon is depicted as a ram and had a far reaching cult in the Mediterranean. Ammo means 'sun' in Greek. In Egypt it got infused with the sun god Ra to become Amun-Ra, Zeus in Greece (Roman Jupiter) took on Ammon's depiction with horns of the ram. The Oracle of Siwa was very famous at the time. Alexander visited the temple to seek consultation in the footsteps of Greek mythological heroes Perseus and Heracles and other kings. Even Queen Cleopatra was said to have visited the hot springs there.

This is a map of Alexander's travels and his empire. He traversed East-West, West-East, North-South, South-North. You can refer to this later for it has significance in my tale..

Alexander fought in 19 battles, often against a much larger enemy force, and never lost a single one. As each defeated foe accepted him as overlord, they contributed new military contingents to replace his depleted forces. He led an army that had such diversity which most certainly exerted tremendous pressure tearing at the seams due to competing egos, interests, loyalties and jealousies . Yet for one so young, he was able to hold the centre. It said a lot about his military craft and leadership.

Alexander was tutored by Aristotle. The intellectual sophistication side of him was revealed in the way he treated his defeated foes and his respect for local customs and their gods. Alexander took back with him from India 10 gymnosophists. These were ancient Indian philosophers who pursued asceticism to the extreme of abstaining from food and clothing for purity of thought. Alexander was known to have had many fascinating Q&A sessions with these near naked wise men of the East. It is very plausible Alexander's quest for knowledge impressed Demetrius, one of his adjutants, to later request Ptolemy to build the famous library at Alexandria. The Great Library of Alexandria was eventually built by Ptolemy II.

The legends and myths of Alexander :

All these came from a book called Alexander Romance, thought to be written before 338 CE in ancient Greek and translated into Latin. The problem is the original manuscripts are lost. Extant copies are in various languages (Coptic, Ge'ez, Middle Persian, Byzantine Greek, Arabic, Persian, Armenian, Syriac, Hebrew) with copies of copies over different period between 4th and 6th century. There is thus not one book but several with variations as stuff got added. The original was attributed to Callisthenes who was Alexander's historian. Callisthenes was a Macedonian who followed Alexander in his campaigns. Since Callisthenes died before Alexander, he couldn't be the author. That is why all extant copies of "Romance" are attributed to Pseudo-Callisthenes.

It is in the style of 'credence narrative', based on historical events married with the genre of ancient mythologies full of pagan gods, demigod heroes, supernatural beings, strange beasts, prophecies, and oracles. "Romance" has a hundred more strange beasts than Homer's Iliad.

Independent of "Romance" is another collection called Alexander Legends which is in Syriac said to be written between 6th and early 7th century.

For my purpose here, only two myths are mentioned.

Alexander's Gate:

Alexander was said to have built a wall of iron at a mountain pass which prevented certain barbaric tribes from invading Persian territories. This is called Alexander's Gate. There are four places which are collectively known as the Caspian Gates. Details in "Legends" are vague so it is not clear which of the four is Alexander's Gate.

Most think Alexander's Gate is at Derbent Pass. However, both Derbent and Darial are too far North in the Caucasus Mountains and outside of the Persian Empire.

In real history, Alexander passed through Rhagae in pursuit of Darius III. Pliny The Elder (23-79 AD), a Roman philosopher, wrote in "Natural History" about the error of calling the Caucasus passes as Caspian Pass. His geographical description of the pass Alexander took fit the one near Rhagae which is close to today's Tehran. Pliny also noted remnants of iron gate across the river.

There is record of Alexander passing through Rhagae but he didn't build nor repair and gate. The four Caspian Gates were built before and after Alexander's era.

Gog is the people who lived in the land of Magog. In biblical eschatology, God calls on Gog to invade the land of Israel. Josephus (37-100 AD) a Jewish-Roman historian famous for his book "History of Jews", identified the Scythians living in today's southern region of Russia as Gog. (Josephus also wrote about a man called Jesus, thus attesting to the historicity of Christ.)

"Legends" fused the myth of Alexander's Gate with the Biblical apocalyptic tradition of Gog and Magog, which made it very popular in the Middle Ages. This found its way into later copies of "Romance" and the Quran. The myth depicted the pass as too wide. Alexander prayed and the mountains moved closer, allowing the iron gate to be constructed.

The Quran has a short story of Dhu al-Qarnayn, sometimes written as Du'l-Qarnain, together with Yajuj and Majuj. Dhu al-Qarnayn in Arabic means "the two horned man",  a reference to Alexander as the mythical son of Ammon, the one depicted by rams. Yajuj and Maju is Gog and Magog. This story sits uncomfortably in its incoherence in Surah 18 together with the story of  "Sleepers of the cave".

The seduction of Olympias:

"Romance" opens with the seduction of Olympias, wife of Philip II, by Nectanebo II, in all its duplicity and concupiscence. Nectanebo II was a king of Egypt who dabbled with the occult and black magic. An invading army nears and he saw his own defeat. He fled to Macedonia where he became a famous magician. He lusted after Olympias and by black magic he seduced her when Philip II was away on a campaign. He came to her as if in a dream in the form of god Ammon. The union birthed Alexander, thus giving him a demi-god status. "Romance" made Alexander the son of Nectanebo, not Philip II. Why this myth has great significance, you will soon see. 

The Corpse of Alexander:

Towards the end, Alexander faced two internal problems. The Macedonian contingent had by then developed battle fatigue and wanted to return home. His infusion of Persian practices into the military did not go down well with Macedonian soldiers. Friction developed and a serious plot was uncovered. Callisthenes was implicated and thrown in prison where he died a few months later. Alexander died in 323 BC in Babylon from Malaria, which was common at the time. There were some suggestions he could have been poisoned.

In death as in life, Alexander casted a huge shadow over his empire. His body was embalmed for the grandest funeral that took two years in the planning. Alexander's death left a huge power vacuum. He had divided his empire amongst his 4 satraps - Antigonus, Cassander, Ptolemy, and Seleucus. All understood one thing. The body of Alexander was a talisman representing authority. Whoever was closest to Alexander in death earns legitimacy in the succession. All four would have wanted Alexander buried in their province. Perdiccas was the highest ranking official in Babylon and he determined Alexander was to be buried in Aegae in Macedonia where their kings were laid to rest.  Alexander was placed in a golden coffin and escorted by a grand column on the journey.

Somewhere in Syria, Ptolemy hijacked the body and brought it back to Memphis. Some of Alexander's men switched allegiance and followed Ptolemy. Perdiccas needed to regain authority so he pursued. Due to some disastrous decisions at the River Nile which caused the death of many Macedonian troopers, Perdiccas was murdered by his own men. War was avoided. 

Alexander's four generals fought several wars for supremacy. The last war was The Battle of Ipsus 301 BC. When he erroneously thought his coalition had lost, Ptolemy pulled out of the conflict and returned to Egypt.   

Ptolemy set about to create his own empire in Egypt in what we might today call an elaborate disinformation programme. The last Egyptian pharaoh was Nectanebo II who was deposed by the Persians in 343 BC and died in exile. Egyptian tradition required a pharaoh to come from the same lineage. Ptolemy promoted Alexander as actually the son of Nectanebo II and therefore claimed the throne posthumously. While he made himself out as the illegitimate son of Philip II making him half-brother of Alexander, his rightful successor.

Ptolemy built a cult around Alexander and created stories. A new king normally issues new coins to announce his arrival. Ptolemy issued coins of Alexander (with two horns of Ammon) on his death. This is why history left us such rich heritage of Alexander in statutes and in mosaic, courtesy of Ptolemy. The false Alexander lineage allowed the Ptolemaic dynasty to rule for 150 years all the way to the last Ptolemy VII, the famous Queen Cleopatra, who committed suicide in 30 BC after her defeat by Octavia Caesar in the naval Battle of Actium 31 BC.

In 305 BC Ptolemy declared himself Pharaoh and made Alexandria his capital. Alexander's remains were placed in the golden coffin and transferred to Alexandria. Ptolemy II honoured Alexander with more cultish ceremonies. Ptolemy IV had to transfer Alexander's remains to a glass coffin to melt the gold coffin to fund his treasury. Imperial Rome saw Alexander as the epitome of power and several caesars visited his tomb. Over time the adulation cooled and eventually Alexander's remains were lost to history. It was thought following the rise of Christianity after Emperor Constantine there could have been a destruction of pagan culture and Alexander's tomb destroyed. In 1850s when Britain colonised Egypt, they carted back to London Museum what was thought to be Alexander's sarcophagus. Turned out that sarcophagus was for the exiled Nectanebo II.

Comments:

Coming back to 38 Oxley Road, the more astute reader would have understood by now the analogy to Alexander's body. Lee Kuan Yew's abode is a talisman for authority and power which legitimises the House of Lee. It has to be retained for the future generation of leadership from that lineage. Could this be the real reason for the son to deny a father's death wish for his house to be demolished?

It is apparent Ptolemy's disinformation also influenced "Romance" and "Legends" and all have been pedalled much like how online materials are shared carelessly nowadays, oblivious to authenticity.

It is difficult to understand the logic of Alexander for its place in the Quran. Readers may be interested to do some research on a Musa Cerantonio. He is Irish Australian, born Robert Cerantonio to an Irish family. At age 17 he converted to Islam. As a white convert, he was a novelty. Got paraded all over Muslim ummah to give speeches. Believed in fundamentalist version of Islam. Became a famed recruiter for ISIS. In 2014 went to Mindanao, Philippines, to help start a caliphate there. Got thrown out the country for overstaying. In 2016 organised a group to return to Philippines by boat illegally as his passport was impounded. Was arrested and landed in jail in Australia. In jail, he came across "Romance" and realised the similarities of Alexander in legends to Dhu al-Qarnayn in the Quran. He suffered a crisis of faith and thereupon committed apostasy. Served time and released from jail in May 2023. He is now an atheist. How strange what "Romance" can do to a fundamentalist-hardened man when many outreach programmes cannot.

The Quran, surah 18:83-97
(As translated by Quran.com)

They ask you ˹O Prophet˺ about Ⱬul-Qarnain. Say, “I will relate to you something of his narrative.”
Surely We established him in the land, and gave him the means to all things.
So he travelled a course,
until he reached the setting ˹point˺ of the sun, which appeared to him to be setting in a spring of murky water, where he found some people. We said, “O Ⱬul-Qarnain! Either punish them or treat them kindly.”
He responded, “Whoever does wrong will be punished by us, then will be returned to their Lord, Who will punish them with a horrible torment.
Then he travelled a ˹different˺ course
until he reached the rising ˹point˺ of the sun. He found it rising on a people for whom We had provided no shelter from it.
So it was. And We truly had full knowledge of him.
Then he travelled a ˹third˺ course
until he reached ˹a pass˺ between two mountains. He found in front of them a people who could hardly understand ˹his˺ language.
They pleaded, “O Ⱬul-Qarnain! Surely Gog and Magog are spreading corruption throughout the land. Should we pay you tribute, provided that you build a wall between us and them?”
He responded, “What my Lord has provided for me is far better. But assist me with resources, and I will build a barrier between you and them.
Bring me blocks of iron!” Then, when he had filled up ˹the gap˺ between the two mountains, he ordered, “Blow!” When the iron became red hot, he said, “Bring me molten copper to pour over it.”
And so the enemies could neither scale nor tunnel through it.

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TALES FROM GABRIEL- SLEEPERS OF THE CAVE

'Tales From Gabriel' is a collection of myths, legends, fables or stories I am collating, each of which are interesting on its own, but more fascinating is, a few hundred or thousand years later, they landed on the pages of the Holy Book of Islam. The Quran, supposedly compiled in the 7th century, is the spoken word of God conveyed to His Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him. These tales are post-fact canonised. Have they been plagiarised into Truth? Opinions are strictly personal.

The Story:

During the reign of Trajanus Decius (AD 201 – 251) who was Roman emperor from 249 to 251, there lived 7 young men in Ephesus, a city in ancient Greece. That was a time Rome was persecuting Christians and the religion had basically gone underground in order to survive.

One day Decius arrived in Ephesus. He ordered a public offering of sacrifice to Roman pagan gods. In this manner Decius can identify Christians who will not offer sacrifices. Those who disobeyed were to be executed. Everyone in the city obeyed except for the 7 young men who refused to deny their faith. They went into hiding. When it became untenable to remain in the town, they fled to the mountains and took refuge in a cave. One of them was chosen to administer to their needs, let's call him Iamblicus. Each day, Iamblicus would go into town dressed as a beggar, to procure food.

Decius soon heard about the 7 youths and ordered a search. When word reached Decius about the secret cave, he ordered it be sealed up. So the cave opening was sealed and the young men left to their doom. One of the masons wanted to honour the youths for their strong faith. He wrote their names and the reasons their being condemned. He hid the note in a box amongst the boulders.

Some 300 years later, the owner of the land, unaware of the history, wanted the cave re-opened. When the cave was opened, the 7 youths woke up as if they had slept over the night. They had no idea 300 years had passed. Iamblicus assumed his usual chore of going down to the town to buy bread for the day. Upon arriving at the town he was surprised the town had changed overnight. The townscape was different and he was surprised to see signs of the Cross on many buildings. Soon he realised people were talking about Jesus openly. Iamblicus found a bakery, bought what he needed and paid for it. But there was a problem. He tried to pay with old coins bearing the face of Decius. It was then the reign of Theodosius II (408–450) so coins had changed. To resolve the matter, Iamblicus was brought before the Deacon of Ephesus. Following the interrogation, they proceeded to the cave, and true enough they found six other youths who all corroborated Iamblicus's account. The Deacon found the note left by the mason and accepted the miracle as the work of the Lord to show to the Church the mystery of the Resurrection of the Dead.

Constantine I (272 – 337) had transformed Rome from paganism to Christianity. During the reign of Theodosius II (408–450) there were deeply divisive theological disagreements about the resurrection of the body in the day of judgement and life after death. Some felt resurrection of the body was not possible and therefore it can only be interpreted as resurrection of the soul. When the case of the 7 youths were reported to him, Theodosius II, being a practicing Christian, wanted to meet the 7 youths to honour them for their commitment to the faith. After they had the audience with the Emperor, the 7 youths fell into their final sleep a second time till the Lord returns and final Resurrection.

Comments :

There were many versions with differing details. Many disagreed on the number of youths and some included a dog. The Quran, in its eternal wisdom, never reveal the number but says "My Lord knows best their exact number. Only a few people know as well." 

Another common difference is the number of years the youths slept. The Quran puts it at 309 years which obviously is lunar years. Converted to solar years it is 300.

Names of youths also differ. Some accounts use Maximilian, Iamblicus, Martinian, John, Dionysius, Exacustodianus and Antoninus.

Hundreds of manuscripts have been found in Syriac, Aramiac and Greek. The earliest was one by Bishop Jacob of Serugh (450–521) who wrote from an earlier Greek version which has been lost. Jacob also mentioned a church consecrated to the 7 sleepers.

There are several places that have laid claim to be the grotto where the youths slept. Daniel the Pilgrim from present day Ukraine, travelled the region widely in the 12th century during the times of the Crusade. He wrote extensively of his travels and claimed to have seen relics of the sleepers' cave.

The American author Washington Irving, possibly plagiarised the myth for his famous short story "Rip Van Winkle" first published in 1819.

The fact is the 'sleepers' is not in the liturgical calendar and Roman missal. There is no archaeological or documented evidence that the story was other than just an invention to propagate or demonstrate the theological concept of end time Resurrection.

The Resurrection of the Dead on the second coming of Christ is such a fundamental part of Christian faith that the Orthodox Church commemorates the 'sleepers' story on August 4 for the first time the youths fell asleep and October 22 for the second sleep. In Roman Martyrology the 'sleepers' have been listed on July 27 since 1961.

Notice that the list refers to 'the 7 holy sleepers' and not saints or martyrs as there was no beatification of any real life character. It is in effect to commemorate a very popular myth that served to underline the fundamental concept of Resurrection of the Dead. In 1961 the 'sleepers' was listed as number 7th item to be read. I was told in 2004 it was moved up to number 1. But this is only reflected in the Latin version of the Roman Martyrology. The reason is unknown. Perhaps it is to give more recognition to the story at an era where people are loosing belief in the supernatural.

The Quran surah 18:9-25
(Translated as per Quran.com)

Have you ˹O Prophet˺ thought that the people of the cave and the plaque were ˹the only˺ wonders of Our signs?
˹Remember˺ when those youths took refuge in the cave, and said, “Our Lord! Grant us mercy from Yourself and guide us rightly through our ordeal.”
So We caused them to fall into a dead sleep in the cave for many years,
then We raised them so We may show which of the two groups would make a better estimation of the length of their stay.
We relate to you ˹O Prophet˺ their story in truth. They were youths who truly believed in their Lord, and We increased them in guidance.
And We strengthened their hearts when they stood up and declared, “Our Lord is the Lord of the heavens and the earth. We will never call upon any god besides Him, or we would truly be uttering an outrageous lie.”
˹Then they said to one another,˺ “These people of ours have taken gods besides Him. Why do they not produce a clear proof of them? Who then does more wrong than those who fabricate lies against Allah?
Since you have distanced yourselves from them and what they worship besides Allah, take refuge in the cave. Your Lord will extend His mercy to you and accommodate you in your ordeal.”
And you would have seen the sun, as it rose, inclining away from their cave to the right, and as it set, declining away from them to the left, while they lay in its open space. That is one of the signs of Allah. Whoever Allah guides is truly guided. But whoever He leaves to stray, you will never find for them a guiding mentor.
And you would have thought they were awake, though they were asleep. We turned them over, to the right and left, while their dog stretched his forelegs at the entrance. Had you looked at them, you would have certainly fled away from them, filled with horror.
And so We awakened them so that they might question one another. One of them exclaimed, “How long have you remained ˹asleep˺?” Some replied, “Perhaps a day, or part of a day.” They said ˹to one another˺, “Your Lord knows best how long you have remained. So send one of you with these silver coins of yours to the city, and let him find which food is the purest, and then bring you provisions from it. Let him be ˹exceptionally˺ cautious, and do not let him give you away.
For, indeed, if they find out about you, they will stone you ˹to death˺, or force you back into their faith, and then you will never succeed.”
That is how We caused them to be discovered so that their people might know that Allah’s promise ˹of resurrection˺ is true and that there is no doubt about the Hour. When the people disputed with each other about the case of the youth ˹after their death˺, some proposed, “Build a structure around them. Their Lord knows best about them.” Those who prevailed in the matter said, “We will surely build a place of worship over them.”
Some will say, “They were three, their dog was the fourth,” while others will say, “They were five, their dog was the sixth,” ˹only˺ guessing blindly. And others will say, “They were seven and their dog was the eighth.” Say, ˹O Prophet,˺ “My Lord knows best their ˹exact˺ number. Only a few people know as well.” So do not argue about them except with sure knowledge, nor consult any of those ˹who debate˺ about them.
And never say of anything, “I will definitely do this tomorrow,”
without adding, “if Allah so wills!” But if you forget, then remember your Lord, and say, “I trust my Lord will guide me to what is more right than this.”
They had remained in their cave for three hundred years, adding nine.

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