VIVIAN POKED THE RUSSIAN BEAR FROM THE SAFETY OF HIS RIDOUT LAIR.

In the Russo-Ukranian conflict, Singapore's knee jerk reaction in imposing a unilateral sanction against the land of the Rus is, in my humble opinion, an error in foreign policy. I have often said, as in investment decisions, one should not criticise from the wisdom of hindsight. Having blogged a contrarian view from the very beginning, I suppose I hold a higher ground to now review that decision in light of subsequent events and understanding.

Vivian’s SOP explanation was Singapore abides by international law so as a small country, we need to speak out when a country invades another. In the real world, everybody understands in matters of foreign policy, principles are tempered by overall state interests. It is one thing to speak out against Putin sending troops into Ukraine, but an entirely different matter to take unilateral action to sanction Russia. In so doing, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakhrishnan went against Singapore age old wisdom of nonalignment. Will this set a policy precedent in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Of course, that is a very complicated situation. The sanction against Russia sets a dilemma for when it comes to Taiwan. Jump into the fire and sanction China, or be a hypocrite.

The knee jerk sanction was an appeasement to Western war-mongering. It laid blame squarely on Russian imperialism without recognising the geopolitics at play. Russia had explained their action is a limited military operation to defend Western Ukrainians of Russian descent and de-Nazisification of the country. Their strategic strikes seem to bear this out. Western governments lay blame on an offensive Russia, disregarding the fact it is Nato expanding eastwards and not a Russian expansion westwards, that underlies the geopolitics at play. Singapore is dancing to the beat of western war drums.

Western Ukraine had been bombing civilian targets in Eastern Russian-speaking Ukraine for 8 years and Singapore had remained silent. Ukranian forces were fingered in the downing of Malaysian flight MH17 which took 298 lives with NATO and US cover up, and Singapore was silent. Singapore did not support Moscow's call for an international investigation into the undersea Nordstream gas pipeline bombing which was an act of terrorism, notwithstanding we are a small nation with many undersea infras to protect.  The sanction broke ranks with Asean countries and is insensitive to their concerns.

The ever pragmatic Singapore government obviously had to balance Western appeasement with economic implications. To this end, Singapore sees Russia as a minor trade partner, that being reason why Vivian made the decision to poke the bear and demonstrate how pugnacious the little red dot can be. Don’t play play.

Lee Kuan Yew once mentioned his secret to a healthy life is to consume about 80% to stomach capacity. A heavy and full meal makes one lethargic. By extension, the wisdom is some hunger drives a person to strive. Shakespeare puts it succinctly, “when it surfeits, the appetite sickens and so dies”. Does it seem Vivian, luxuriating in his palace at Ridout Road, and having his “3 meals in restaurants”, no longer has his nose on the ground?

The sanction seemed impetuous and reminisce of Temasek’s due diligence of FTX. Perhaps the effect of  an over-consumption of US and Nato confidence and secret objective of breaking up Russia after the war.  Has Vivian miscalculated on the relevance of Russia post Ukraine conflict? 

Singapore walks through thick and thin with the unelected globalist crowd at World Economic Forum and World Health Organisation, intending to go willingly to the guillotines of vaccine passports and ESG entrapment. WEF is all about globalist economic and political capture under the guise of holding comprehensive agendas covering a broad range of topics, such as geopolitics, climate change, technology, and economic trends. with plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops, and networking opportunities, not to forget cultivating a corp of future leaders to infiltrate governments. Meanwhile, in July, will Singapore follow US and ignore St. Petersburg Economic Forum, or unabashedly go attend. SPIEF is a major international economic forum. SPIEF focuses on topics related to the Russian economy, international investment, and regional development. It typically includes panel discussions, business dialogues, and industry-specific sessions. It is Russia-centric which means a loss of opportunities ahead for counties on the “unfriendly list”.

Vivian got Singapore into Putin’s “list of unfriendly countries”. Will there be significant economic punishments? Russia currently ranks number 11 in the world in terms of nominal GDP. The 6 Western countries ahead of Russia has economies which are either sputtering or the governments are committing economic suicide (US, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada). Far from being crushed, Russia has benefited from the sanctions in ways the West and Vivian never understood.

The West had betted Russia's economy is weak, Putin is an unpopular tyrant, start a war with Ukraine, destroy Russian gas supply to EU, impose sanctions, and there will be a revolution and regime change, just like the Maidan Revolution of Ukraine in 2014 engineered by US. The West failed to understand in Russia, Putin is a hero who brought the country back from the brink of collapse after the break-up of USSR. Western media have you believe Putin and his crony oligarchs are extremely corrupt who plundered the country and Russians are suffering. What they are not telling the world is Russian oligarchy is the creation of the US. After the break-up of USSR, a bankrupt Russia took on massive loans from IMF. Boris Yeltsin, first Russian president, was forced to acede to IMF demands to reform the country from a central planning to a market-driven economy. Four top economists of Harvard were roped in to implement a shock therapy of privatisation. Jeffrey Sachs, Lawrence Summers, David Lipton and Jonathan Hay became known as the Harvard Boys. The boys wheel and deal together with corrupt elements in the Russian government. In the end the boys were kicked out and returned home in disgrace after creating the ground for the rise of Russian oligarchs.

Basically, it was Yeltsin who put the Russian crown on Putin. Yeltsin needed someone he could trust and a strong man to run a country crumbling into criminality. Putin’s first task was to stop capital flight. To oligarchs who bring capital back to deploy in Russia, he offered the olive branch. Those that don’t, he went after. Roman Abramovich of Chelsea FC fame, for example, invested back and did much charity work in the motherland. There are many like him and they got on well with Putin. Western media of course, point to these relationships as proof of corruption.

What the West and Vivian cannot comprehend, is that the sanctions did for Putin what he himself could not fully accomplish. The international sanctions forced the oligarchs to bring capital back to Russia or be confiscated or stolen by the Western countries. So as Western countries wallow in economic slowdown due mismanagement of pandemic, suicidal slide into dystopian socialism, sabotaging their own energy and farming industries, opening their borders, promoting lawlessness, cultural and societal shift to madness, exploding national debt supporting Ukraine, bringing their countries to unbridgeable political divisions – with all these nonsense going on in the West, something is happening in Russia which has largely gone un-noticed. The return of capital has caused a mini economic boom.

The West and Vivian had thought sanctions will stop the export of Russian gas and other products and bring the country to its knees. They never computed Russian products continue to move round the world via third countries. But again, Vivian probably does not know how sanctioned goods are shipped via Singapore into Myanmar.

Russia is one of those countries that stands to gain in climate change. Warmer climate is turning Russia into a serious agricultural powerhouse. Another economic driver for Russia is the much touted maritime Arctic trade route under development by the Arctic Council of which Singapore is a stakeholder. Getting Singapore into Putin’s “unfriendly countries list” is Vivian’s achievement. Thanks to Vivian, opportunities in Russia's trajectory of becoming the world’s biggest agricultural producer, and its vast Arctic coastal development, will see a diminished role for Singapore.

Most importantly, dedollarisation presents the greatest danger and challenge for Singapore. The diminished role for US dollar as number one world reserve currency is inevitable. It is no longer a question of will that happen but how fast. A Trump win 2024 may slow the death of US$ a bit, but it will happen. A Democrat win and the dollar may collapse as fast as possibly the next administration. The weaponisation of the currency and SWIFT payment system has completely destroyed trust in the West. To maintain Singapore's role as an important financial centre, we need to be plugged into dynamically evolving restructuring taking place. Two of the most important developments will be in BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. As the rest of the world moves away from Western influence, BRICS and SCO are shaping up to take centre stage in international affairs. The leadership of both organisations lie with China and Russia. Being in Russia's ‘unfriendly countries list’ is going to come back to haunt Singapore. A Lee Hsien Loong – Vivian leadership has damaged Singapore's foreign relationships with two super powers. Its not a nice place to be in.

Does the government realise the sanction is not in Singapore's best interest? I’m thinking the answer is YES. These two reports from government media said it all. On 7 Mar 2022 in writing about the ‘unfriendly countries list’, it proudly showed Singapore’s name. Four months later 1 Aug 2022, it quietly omitted mention of Singapore. Mike Pence famously said bears do not go away, they merely go into hibernation. Vivian must know that the Russian bear will awake from its slumber, and when it does, its going to be mighty pissed off being poked.

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