Here are some of the world's headlines. Perplexed is an understatement as Covid case surges in countries with high vaccination rates do not make sense. Are these one off cases or is there a pattern? If it is a pattern, what conclusions can be drawn?
"COVID-19: Cases on the rise. Public urged to avoid large gatherings" (Gibraltar - 100% fully vaccinated).. 12 Nov 2021
"Pfizer Child Vaccine Clears Hurdle; Irish Surge: Virus Update" (Ireland - 75,4% fully vaccinated) ... 2 Nov 2021
"COVID-19: Ireland's Co Waterford has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - so why are cases surging?" (99.5% of adults fully vaccinated) ... 6 Nov 2021.
Vermont (US State) has the highest vaccination rate in the country (72%). So why are cases surging?" ABC, 12 Nov 2021
"Singapore reaches 80 pc double-vaccination rate but life is not returning to normal" ABC, 13 Sep 2021
Slowly and reluctantly the health authorities are getting round to the reality -- the vaccines don't work. Bill Gates and Dr Fauci have recently admitted, at last. Well, they are not actually saying vaccines don't work. The excuse is the vaccines wane in 2-6 months, a claim never supported by any hard evidence.
Is there any evidence that countries that achieved high vaccination rates have high cases? I did a deep dive and plotted the scatter graph based on data as at 17 Nov 2021.
If the vaccines work, the scatter-graph of all countries should show a distribution similar in the chart here. The countries will mostly cluster in the 2 yellow coloured quadrants. The left-top quadrant are countries with HR (high vax rate) and LC (low cases) and the right-bottom are countries with LR (low vax rate) and HC (high cases). This is just simple logic. The HR-LC and the LR-HC quadrants would tend to be the normal distribution to be expected if vaccination works. Where there is a high rate of vaccination, the cases ought to be low, and vice versa, where the vaccination rates are low, the cases ought to be high.
The situation as at 17 Nov 2021 defies simple logic.
The world average cases per capita basis is 3,239 per 100,000. The weighted average fully vaccinated rate is 41.34%. The chart is divided into 4 quadrants based on these 2 criteria.
Surprisingly, there are 2 big clusters in the HR-HC and the LR-LC quadrants. These are anomalies.
HR-HC quadrant:
106 countries have fully vaccinated above world average of 41.34%. Of the HR (High Rate) countries, 82 or 77% have high cases (HC). The total number of countries making the chart is 205. Of these 205 countries, 38% are in the HR-HC quadrant.This makes a good case for the claim that countries with higher vaccination rates have higher cases. The top 8 countries with the highest vaccination rates in the world have High Cases. Gibraltar has 100% adults fully vaccinated yet it has a HC rate of 19,482 cases per 100,000. The Seychelles has the 2nd highest HC rate in the world of 22,909 cases per 100,000 despite a fully vaccinated rate of 78.6%.
Singapore is the 3rd highest vaccinated country in the world with 86.4% fully vaccinated. The case rate is 4,046 per 100,000, a borderline case in the HR-HC quadrant. Singapore is moving fast to the ignonimous right in the HR-HC quadrant. If current trend of new daily cases of 3,400 continues, in 2 months time, Singapore will be where Malaysia is today at 7,747 cases per 100,000..
LR-LC quadrant:
The so-called African enigma is apparent in this quadrant. Onchocerciasis or river blindness, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted through repeated bites by blackflies of the genus Simulium. This is prevalent in many countries in Africa, especially the sub-tropical regions where the disease is endemic. Ivermectin is used widely to control this disease. This quadrant is populated by many African states. All 31 countries where onchocerciasis is endemic are in this quadrant. This fuels the suggestion that Ivermectin use may have something to do with it.
Why COVID-19 is not so widely spread in Africa? How does Ivermectin affect it? Rodrigo Guerrero et al did a study on the differences between APOC (states that took part in the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control) and non-APOC countries. (Published Dec 2020 Read Here). Their conclusion:
"The incidence in mortality rates and number of cases (from Covid) is significantly lower among the APOC countries compared to non-APOC countries. That a mass public health preventive campaign against COVID-19 may have taken place, inadvertently, in some African countries with massive community ivermectin use is an attractive hypothesis."
Hisaya Tanioka et al did a study on the African enigma and their report was publiched Mar 2021(Read here). Their conclusion:
"The morbidity and mortality in the onchocerciasis endemic countries are lesser than those in the non-endemic ones. The community-directed onchocerciasis treatment with ivermectin is the most reasonable explanation for the decrease in morbidity and fatality rate in Africa. In areas where ivermectin is distributed to and used by the entire population, it leads to a significant reduction in mortality."
India and Indonesia, the two countries whose health system almost collapsed under the onslaught of the Delta strain, switched to Ivermectin and very quickly brought the situation under control. Is it a coincidence these countries are also in this LR-LC quadrant?
(Note: Onchocerciasis endemic countries are highlighted in yellow)
