SYRIAN CIVIL WAR HAS RE-IGNITED - ANOTHER COMPLICATED MIDDLE EAST MESS AND WHO'S WHO EXPLAINED

The Syrian civil war broke out in 2011 and has never been resolved. Several truce agreements were signed by various parties and fighting simmered down, but localised violence breaks out occasionally. This week, the opposition coalition mounted a strong offensive and has taken control of a major part of Aleppo covering 9 districts. It was a rout as Russian and Syrian forces pulled out without much of a fight.

Aleppo is the largest city of Syria. It's an important economic hub of Syria, and a cultural centre. Loosing Aleppo has serious economic consequences for the government and more importantly it has lost control on the northern part of the country which is claimed by Kurdish separatists. 

Events are moving rapidly as rebel forces are racing south towards Damascus at 50 mph. Before I can publish this blog the Syrian Salvation Army were already in Hama and advancing towards Homs, the third largest Syrian city and an industrial base. From Homs they are half the way to Damascus.

Like Aleppo, Syrian and Russian forces pulled out of Hama without a fight. Rebels now control the military airport in Hama used by the Russians. Moscow was obviously infuriated and has recalled the Russian chief of operations.

The rebels' advance into Aleppo and Hama was a replay of the Taliban's takeover of Kabul in the speed and the collapse of Assad's forces and quick withdrawal of the Russians. It took four days after the fall of Aleppo before Russian planes began bombing the rebel forces. .

Meanwhile in Damascus. Bashar Ashad has gone awol. He has not been seen since the fighting began and rumour is swirling a coup is underway, quite possibly led by his brother who controls the Fourth Division of Syrian Army. There is fighting going on in the capital.

Like most conflicts in the Middle East, this one is a clusterfuck of complexities involving multi-state and non-state actors making it a cauldron of violence with potential for more disastrous outcomes. The map below is a visualisation of the complicated situation.

The civil war in brief : In 2010, "Arab Spring" which is a popular uprising fueled by demands for political freedoms, economic reforms, and an end to corruption and authoritarianism, started in Tunisia. It soon spread to many countries in the Middle East and erupted in Syria 2011. Assad's government was dominated by Alawites, a minority Sunni sect, which alienated and marginalised the majority Sunni population and persecuted the minority Kurds. Poverty and great disparity of wealth fueled social discontent which was exacerbated by a severe drought from 2006-2010. This devastated agriculture and rural folks flocked to urban centres. Municipal and social services collapsed. Syrians demonstrated and the Assad government came down hard on the people. Violence erupted and patriotic forces formed, reinforced by Syrian army defections. It soon attracted outside Islamist fighters and terrorists. The opposition forces is a mix of nationalists, Islamists, terrorists and Kurdish separatists.

The state players:

* Assad regime which is Alawite, a minority sect of Sunni Islam. It is corrupt, oppressive and authoritarian.

* Russia's purpose in Syria is to project their power in the Middle East. It has 83 bases and outposts in Syria and has to prop up the Assad regime to maintain these installations. Russian presence enhances its military and intelligence capabilities, to counter the influence of Western and regional powers, particularly the US, and Iran. Although both Russia and Iran support Syria, they are wary of each other's influence expansionism plans. This has generated suspicion and non-cooperation, for example, Russia held back on any action against Israel when it attacked Iran's interest. This rivalry and non-cooperation probably was a contributing factor in the hasty recapture of Aleppo by the rebels.

* Iran's interest in Syria is generally to expand Shite influence in the Arab world, and specifically to protect their ground corridor supply route of weapons delivery to the Lebanon theatre for their proxy Hezbollah's war against Israel. That supply route uses the M5 Highway which is now cut off by the rebels. Iran's indiscriminate use of civilian planes to carry military weaponries use Aleppo as a staging area which will now likely fall into rebel hands.

* Turkey has an ongoing war with minority Kurds on the East led by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) who has plans for an independent Kurdistan. PKK operates in Turkey and have historical and ideological ties with Kurds in NE Syria and Northern Iraq. In Syria, Turkey supports the rebel faction Syrian National Army (SNA) as its proxy against the Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces. It also has Turkish troops to maintain security at the borders. Turkey does not support the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) due to its terrorist links, but is tolerated to stabilise the border region which prevents inflow of refugees into Turkey.. Turkey's goals are twofold - support a rebel group as proxy against Assad to counter Shite Iran's influence, and build a buffer zone along the Turkey-Syria border to prevent the union of Kurds from the two countries.

* Saudi, Qatar and UAE, all Sunni countries, support various Sunni Islamist factions. most of which are terrorist organisations, to counter the Iranian Shite influence in Syria.

* The US objective in Syria is counter-international terrorism, counter the spread of Russian and Iranian influence, training and support the Kurds and non-radical rebel forces, intelligence gathering, and generally to protect its economic interest in the region. The US used to have a massive military base southeast of Damascus, known as Al-Tanf, which remains a key strategic location in the Syrian conflict. Established in 2016, Al-Tanf served as a hub for counter-ISIS operations and the training of Syrian opposition factions like the Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT). The base is located near the tri-border area with Jordan and Iraq, along the Baghdad-Damascus M5 highway. US supports the Kurdish forces in northern Iraq and northern Syria. In this, the US has to be sensitive of its relation with Turkey because the Kurds are aligned with the Turkish PKK which is a designated terrorist force by Turkey and EU. The US used to have 32 bases and outposts in Syria but no longer. However it is still actively operating alongside local partners, especially the Kurds who have proven to be loyal allies.

The rebel forces:

Comprise of various Islamist nationalists, terrorists groups, and Kurdish separatists. They are of different ideological factions of Sunnis, Shites, Salafis, and minority Christians and Yazadis. All are intent on kicking out the Assad Regime who are minority Alawites which has governed the only secular state in the Middle East for decades, and to replace it with same authoritarian Islamist state. Main groups are :

1. Syrian Salvation Government (SSG):

The SSG is the civilian administrative and political wing of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which evolved from al-Nusra Front, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda. Few minor independent factions include remnants of groups like Hurras al-Din (linked to al-Qaeda). HTS is a hardline Islamist group with vision of governance under Sharia law. It operates primarily in northwest Syria, focusing on maintaining control over Idlib and resisting both the Assad regime and other opposition groups, particular the Kurdish factions.

The SSG was established in 2017 to centralize governance in opposition-held areas, aiming to shift focus from military rule to civil administration. It controls various services such as education, justice, and infrastructure in the regions it administers. It has no backers, surviving on fees and tax revenue from the area it controls. It is questionable how it can fund its arms built-up.

Turkey does not directly support the HTS because of its links to terrorist group al-Qaeda. However, it tolerates and depends on HTS to maintain stability in the area to prevent a flood of refugees into Turkey.

It was the HTS that launched the offensive to retake Aleppo and with that all various factions had to react and throw Syria into violent turmoil again.

2. Free Syrian Army (FSA):

Factions include Syrian Liberation Front (SLF) known for being a coalition of moderate Islamist groups, including Suquor al-Sham and the Farouq Battalions; Syrian Islamic Front (SIF) previously an alliance of several Islamist brigades, the SIF included Ahrar al-Sham, one of the most prominent groups in the Syrian Civil War; Syrian National Army (SNA).

The FSA was formed in 2011 by defectors from the Syrian Arab Army who opposed President Bashar al-Assad’s government during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War. It aimed to unify various opposition groups into a centralized force. Initially secular and nationalist, advocating for democracy and the overthrow of Assad.

Over time, the FSA fragmented into smaller factions which shifted allegiance to the Turkey-backed militias under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army (SNA). As a Turkish proxy, it battles Kurdish groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF); and some smaller independent groups.

Backers are the United States, Turkey, and Gulf Arab states at various points, though support has waned due to factionalism and limited success against Assad’s forces.

3. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF):

Established in 2015, the SDF is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious coalition dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). smaller factions are Women's Protection Units (YPJ) – A Kurdish women-led military force closely aligned with the YPG; Syriac Military Council (MFS) – Representing Christian Syriac-Assyrians; Euphrates Liberation Brigade – An Arab faction; Manbij Military Council – Includes groups like the Liwa Tahrir al-Furat, Free Officers Union; Al-Sanadid Forces – A tribal force mainly from the Shammar tribe and Deir ez-Zor Military Council – Comprising Arab fighters from the Deir ez-Zor region. SDF is secular and left-leaning, with a strong focus on regional autonomy and democratic governance in the areas it controls. It governs the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, a self-declared autonomous region.

SDF has the toughest jobs amongst the rebel groups. It battles Assad's army; as a US ally, it battles ISIS; it battles Turkish army which has a small force in the Turkey-Syria borders; and it battles Turkey's proxy the Syrian National Army (SNA) of the Free Syrian Army coalition.

The Kurdish factions YPG and YPJ are supported by the US. Kurdish fighters have proven to be loyal and reliable allies of the US in the wars in Iraq. The image here shows Turkish forces entering Aleppo with US-supplied hardware. After HTS first advanced into Aleppo, the SDF moved quickly to take control of other provinces not yet taken over by HTS.

4. Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT):

Also known as the Revolutionary Comman Army, this is a nationalist Syrian rebel group that seeks to establish governance free from Assad regime. It is aligned with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). It is supported by the US. It operates primarily from the US-controlled al-Tanf military base and helps maintain the area's security as a strategic buffer against threats from ISIS and Iranian-backed militias covering an area that straddles South-Eastern Syria, Iraq and Jordan borders. MaT focuses on countering the presence and resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) in eastern Syria. It is heavily influenced by its dependence on U.S. support, which includes training, logistics, and air support.

5. Other factions:

ISIS is no longer the force it was. It has remnants operating in the norther regions.
Al-Qaeda - like ISIS, it has remnants operating within Syria.

Other players:

Hezbollah was founded in the early 1980s in Lebanon, following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. It is a Shiite political and militant organization.based in Lebanon. It's goal is to resist Israeli occupation and advocating for the rights of Lebanon's Shiite population. It is aligned with the Palestinians against Israel.

The majority of Hezbollah's members are predominantly Lebanese Shiites, but it has also attracted members form other regions. Its ideology is strongly influenced by the Iranian revolution and the teachings of Ayatollah Khomeini, who promoted the idea of a Shiite Islamic state. It is funded and fully supported by Iran and operates as a proxy of Iranian interests in Lebanon and the broader Middle East.

In the Iranian civil war it fought for the Assad regime against rebel forces. In the past few months, it's leadership has been decimated by Israel Defence Forces. The IDF has also destroyed much of its infrastructure and weaponry in Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by Israeli offensive actions. It is likely Hezbollah's cache of arms hidden all over Aleppo would fall into rebel hands.

What the bloody hell happened?

Tensions are heightened and the situation is extremely fragile with so many players acting on different goals and different rebel groups seizing the weakening and collapsing Assad regime to seize as much real estate as possible. It is difficulty how the geopolitics will be played out. Anything can happen. Watch this short clip of an Iranian F14 that entered Turkish air space and Turkish F4 jets scrambled to escort it away. It was a crazy dance of jet fighters. What was Iran's fighter jet doing in Turkey?

The big question is why now? The rebels seized on the opportunity after weeks of Israeli offensive both in Lebanon and Syria weakened the Hezbollah, Iran and Syrian forces, and Russia is distracted by their war in Ukraine and had pulled resources back home.

Will Assad, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah be able to re-assert themselves? It may not be so easy this time as rebel forces had eight years to train and arm themselves. Will another humanitarian tragedy unfold as innocent population gets in the way. Unfortunately for the innocent collateral damages, they will not get the same amount of international support from liberals of the world as they lack the propaganda reach of the Palestinians.

Like all issues in the Middle East, ezzy bezzy, blame it on Israel. Then again, as the blame game goes, Israel's offensives were all reactions to the October 7 barbaric attacks by Hamas. In turn Hamas can blame it on another popular scapegoat, Donald Trump. The US peace initiative Abraham's Accord had already normalised relations between Israel and UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Saudi Arabia was close to signing up. Egypt already has a long standing peace treaty with Israel. The Abraham Accord threatens to marginalise the Palestinians. Hamas had to do something so dastardly and on a large scale as to draw Israel to do its best to do its worst. And that's exactly what happened. Hamas got what it wanted, its place back again on the world's attention and conscience.

Who would have thought peace initiatives can cause wars thousands of miles away? Then again, the saying "No good deed goes unpunished" holds true. It's the notion that well-intentioned actions can lead to unintended negative consequences or be taken advantage of by others.

As Israel takes the blame, it can now sit back and reap the reward. The outcome of Syrian Civil War 2.0 will be a very weakened Hezbollah and Iran.


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