FAILED TRUMP ASSASSINATION - THE SHORTING OF TRUMP'S COMPANIES DEBUNKED

Ivan Raiklin :
"There are so many anomalous indicators that showcase that this was not just a rando that was up there (about a random shooter on the roof)...and as far as the indicators of global play here is that you not only have the shorting of the stock but you also have the faux news went ahead and live stream a rally. It's almost as if they wanted to deliberately showcase and have content for decades to show the exclusive look of an assasination of a presidential candidate? So many anomalous indicators that lead to the hypothesis this was foul play, it was an inside job and smells, looks, feels like the duck known as Jan 6 fedsurrection."

It's conspiracy season in US with the failed July 13 assassination on Trump at Butler, Pennsaylvanna. The FBI, totally discredited for their political activism in the last four years, has asserted itself to head the official investigation. Those waiting for the truth from FBI wait in vain. The FBI and Congress are focussed on security lapses and the lone wolf theory. Could it be a simple case of a local young man, for reasons unkown, decided to make a hit on the president? Those who feel there may be something darker than this search for some things that may point to other matters of interest. FBI and Congress will never get past the lone wolf theory with their line of investigation.

In this blog, I will cover the anomalous indicator of shorting stocks.

Smart guys connect the dots to solve a puzzle. Smarter guys search for dots that are concealed. Now ask yourself, if you had priveledged information whispered in your ears that there will be a hit on Trump at the rally, what can you do to make a quick buck. Trumps' business empire will certainly suffer a kneejert dive in the stock market should he be killed. Some smart guy or guys started looking into the financial angle and lo and behold, SEC (Securities Exchange Commission) Reporting showed an investment company filed a report of a huge position taken in two of Trump's companies. This SEC reports are filed when companies buy or sell stocks listed in US. Temasek and GIC file such reports routinely.

There is a story travelling at the speed of light on the internet that an investment company Austin Private Wealth LLC shorted 12,000,000 shares in $DJT (ticker for Trump Media & Technology Group) on July 12, the day before the shooting. Shorting the shares means Austin sell the shares which they do not have. They expect the counters to drop when they can close their short position by buying back at a lower price and make a killing, sorry for the pun. So they had information about the assassination. If Trump is killed, his company share prices will drop.

The conspiracy theory is embellished by Austin's closed links to Blackrock. Bush family and many other well connected folks. Their advisor on foreign affairs is James A. Baker III, a well connected Deep Stater. These people surely knows what will happen on Jul 13.

Here are the facts:

Austin is not an investment company. It is a wealth management company. Thus what it invests is for account of their clients. Secondly, there are many prominent high-net worth names in their client list. Bush, Chenney, Rothschild etc. We do not know who traded those $DJT shares. July 12 was the day the report was filed for position as at Jun 28. It does not mean the shares were purchased one day before the hit. Lastly, it is not about shares. They did not short any shares. It was the purchase of put options, although technically, that is the same as hoping share prices will drop.

And here is the truth about the huge positions in put options:

Austin's F13 filing on Jul 12 showed they held 12,000,000 put options on $DJT and 34,000,000 put options on RUM (Rumble is also Trump's company). The filing before that was on 12 April 2024. Thus the trades were done between Apr 12 and Jul 12. When this was publicised, Austin made a statement that there was a filing error. This is their ecplanation:

"The SEC filing which showed that Austin Private Wealth shorted a large number of shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) was incorrect and we immediately amended it as soon as we learned of the error. No client of APW holds, or has ever held, a put on DJT in the quantity initially reported. The correct holding amount was 12 contracts, or 1,200 shares — not 12 million shares, as was filed in error. In submitting the required report for the second quarter of 2024, a multiplier was applied by a third-party vendor that increased the number of the shares by a multiple of 10,000 for all options contracts (not just DJT). We did not catch the error before approving the filing."

Note they did not mention Rumble just because there is no internet noise about that counter. So are they correct about the multiplier effect of 10,000? I think what they mean is their reporting was outsourced and the vendor made an error of multiplying all put options by 10,000. So they actually held only 1,200 put options on $DJT and 3,400 put options on RUM.

A look at their Jul 12 filing indeed shows all put options in other counters were in millions. Filings on Apr 12 and Jul 16 (amendment) indeed show there were no millions in put options held. So the 'multiplier' explanation makes sense.

You can check the SEC forms here: Austin 13F HR date filed 12 Apr 2024, 12 Jul 2024, 16 Jul 2024

Sorry to burst the bubble. There is nothing to see here.

Next, let me explain why all those spreading this conspiracy either does not know anything about the finacial side of things or cannot think critically.

A put option contract involves 100 shares. So Austin's put options involve 1,200 x 100 = 120,000 $DJT shares and 4,400 x 100 = 340,000 RUM shares. If they had 12,000,000 put options in $DJT and 34,000,000 put options in RUM, it would involve 12,000,000 x 100 = 1,200,000,000 shares in $DJT and 34,000,000 x 100 = 4,400,000,000 shares in RUM.

This is ridiculous because $DJT and RUM simply do not have that sort of issued share capital. Technically it is possible to buy so much contracts as to exceed the underlying shares in the market. But many factors will come into placy. There are regulatory limits for options positions in each counter. Regulatory agencies will be alerted immediately to concentrated positions in a counter. This is to prevent manipulation and liquidity issues which is a systemic risk. The brokerages will be warry of counter-party delivery risks. There will be massive margins for Austin to maintain.

About put options:

A put option on shares is a contract that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell the relevant shares by a specified time, eg within one month. The buyer decides what is the price he is willing to sell the underlying asset within the term of the contract. Once that is determined, the premium, which is the price of the put option can be computed. The parameters that affect the amount of the premium is the intrinsic value (which is strike price less the current market price of the asset), the term to expiry of the contract, market risks such as interest rates, market volatility. There are formulas to compute this.

If market drops, the holder can exercise his right to sell at the strike price which is higher. The profit is the strike price less market price of the seet, less premiums paid. If the market rises, holder does not exercise the right to sell. He looses the premiums paid.

Put options is a way for investors to hedge their positions. It is also a good way for market speculation because if offers a lot of leverage. In this illustration, the conspiracy theory is someone knew about the assasination. He short sell $DJT. However $DJT shares were about US$40 which requires significant margins. If he buys options and let's say the premium is US$5, his margin is very much lower.

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