DEMOCRATS' GOTCHA MOMENT IN RIGGED TRIAL OF TRUMP IN NEW YORK

Slightly more than a year ago, an opposition volunteer who was an ex-SAF tank commander and a rabid Trump hater, challenged me to a ten-course dinner table that Ukraine will drive the Russians out in the lauded ‘Spring Offensive’ and Trump will go to jail. I revised the deal. We settled for just a cup of coffee. That was not for want of conviction but a matter of economics. A cuppa is good enough to douse one’s ego. A further revision I imposed regarding Trump’s trials was State court decisions do not count, especially in New York where residents are 95% liberals, partisan, and rabid Trump haters. A conservative, MAGA, Republican, and least of all, Trump, has no chance of a fair trial whilst a Democrat and liberal activist is rarely hauled to court. Case in point was the Andrew Weissman trial, a Hillary Clinton activist lawyer, where evidence were shown and he actually admitted guilt, but a NY jury found him not guilty. My bet was Trump will go to jail at State court level, but the decisions will be reversed at US Supreme Court where constitutional jurists have majority. Well, after there was no Spring, Summer or Winter offensive by Ukraine, my oppo volunteer challenger went incommunicado.

Manhattan District of NY vs Trump (the Stormy Daniels case):

SD is a porn star who made allegations that in 2006 she had a sexual fling with Donald Trump and was paid US$130,000 hush money in order to protect his campaign for 2016 Presidential Election. New York DA Alwin Bragg charged Trump for falsifying the accounts by booking the payments as legal fees. This is a misdemeanor. Bragg has charged Trump with 34 counts of falsification of accounts, one for each cheque that was made out over a period, but never specify which legislation was breached.

This case had been fully investigated at Federal level but eventually dropped because there was no predicate crime. Manhattan District DA office had also investigated and refused to press charges. Two of Bragg’s public prosecutors resigned in protest against the decision. It begets the question why Bragg eventually proceeded to charge Trump. Bragg is one of many DAs that George Soros had put in office across the US. There are allegations the puppet master called in the chips. Bragg, just like Letitia James, campaigned for office on the promise to 'Get Trump' or as Stalin's secret police chief Beria said, "Show me the man and I will show you the crime".  James charged Trump on a cheating case for which there was no victim, and won. Now Bragg charged  Trump for unspecified violation, and won

District Court for the Southern District of NY vs Michael Cohen:

Cohen was Trump’s personal lawyer. On 21 Aug 2018 Cohen pleaded guilty to 5 counts of tax evasion, 1 count of making false statement to a bank, 1 count of causing an unlawful corporate campaign contribution and 1 count of making an excessive campaign contribution. He was facing a maximum prison term of 65 years. Cohen was sentenced to 3 years after plea bargain to assist the DA’s Office in their investigation on Trump. He was given the chance to sing because Trump is the bigger fish the State was after.

Cohen case is important to understanding the Stormy Daniels case because the complicated details regarding the payments to the porn star were explained there.

David Pecker is CEO of American Media Inc. In August 2015, Cohen and Pecker met with an un-named member of Trump’s campaign staff where the pair offered to deal with any negative stories about Trump, such as relationship with women. They will buy up the story to prevent its publication. Pecker will keep Cohen informed when he hears such stories. As understood by them, the purpose was to suppress and prevent such stories from influencing the election.

On 13 June 2016  Pecker heard of former Playboy playmate Karen McDougal trying to sell her story of an affair with Trump. At Cohen’s urging and assurance Trump will reimburse him, Pecker bought the story for US$150,000 in August 2016.

On 8 October 2016, an agent of Stormy Daniels informed an un-named editor of Pecker she wanted to go public about her sexual fling with Trump. Pecker and editor put Cohen in touch with Michael Avenatti, SD’s lawyer. Cohen negotiated with Avenatti for US$130,000 in exchange for a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) and a side agreement letter with Avenatti (never explained what this was).

Cohen sat on the deal. On 26 October, Avenatti informed said editor that SD was taking her story to another media. Editor and Pecker relayed the threat to Cohen.

My note: There is an audio recording of an angry SD telling Avenatti that the election is drawing near and if the deal is not finalised before then, they no longer have any leverage. It sounded like an extortion racket.

On 26 October Cohen set up a special vehicle (SV) called Essential Consultants LLC. He took a HELOC (housing loan) on a second mortgage on his house. The loan proceeds of US$131,000 was credited into the SV’s bank account. On same day Cohen wired US$130,000 from SV account to Avenatti’s account. In turn Cohen received NDA signed by SD and side letter from Avenatti.

My note: Cohen claimed Trump approved of the payment. Cohen used a HELOC loan instead of his own bank account because he did not want his wife to know. A big stretch of imagination that all tasks got done in a day.

My note: These arrangements are known as ‘catch and kill’ where a media buys a story and ‘kills’ it, ie never publish. These are nuisance claims that celebrities often face and they prefer to pay off rather then go through an ugly and expensive trial. There was another case not mentioned in the trial. A doorman at Trump Tower claimed he had evidence Trump had an illegitimate child. He was paid off with US$20,000. The claim was later proven false. NDAs are legal but not enforceable if the concealed activities are illegal. How Cohen was reimbursed is a bit complicated. He claimed from ‘the Company’ (presumably Trump Org) US$130,000 plus another US$50,000 for some technology related services he had arranged and paid for the campaign, and wire fee of US$35. The ‘Company’ grossed up the total of US$180,035 to US$360,000 (50% tax). To this was added US$60,000 bonus making a total of US$420,000 to be payable over 12 months of US$35,000 each.

Starting from Febrary 2017 and over the course of the year, Cohen billed from the SV and was paid US$420,000 by a Trust fund which booked it under ‘Legal Fees’ with description “retainer fees’.

My note: It's debatable if the accounting was incorrect. In my years auditing companies, I find clients tend to record payments to lawyers under 'Legal Fees A/c" rather than to the underlying nature of the expenditure. Often they do not distinguish between legal fees and legal services. This is no big deal and raming it up as 'falsification' is obviously to serve an agenda. But even if it were falsification it is a minor offence. Cohen was paid with private money from a Trust fund. I cannot explain why Cohen was charged with campaign finance violations.

Stormy Daniels vs Trump, Cohen:

On 6 March 2018 SD sued to invalidate the NDA on grounds it was not signed by Trump. The case was news breaking as it brought attention to the alleged sexual escapade 12 years ago. Trump’s lawyer said they will not seek to enforce the NDA, thus making the suit moot. On 8 September 2018 SD voluntarily withdrew the suit.

My note: After having received the hush money, why did SD bring up this lawsuit. You can see why in the ‘Timeline’ below.

Stormy Daniels vs Trump:

SD had alleged being threatened about making the affair public. Trump responded with a tweet her claim was a “total con job”. She claimed the tweet attacked her credibility and character. She sued on 30 April 2018. The court ruled Trump’s tweet was a rhetorical hyperbole protected by the First Amendment. SD lost. Trump was awarded US$300,000. She appealed in March 2023 and lost again.

My note: Daniels herself had denied on several occasions she had sex with Trump. She had actually made a written statement denying the sex. 

Stormy Daniels vs Avenatti:

Avenatti was SD’s lawyer and he basked in the limelight. His anti-Trump outbursts made him darling of media and liberals. Soon “Avenatti For President” posters popped up. He actually seriously considered a run for the 2020 election.

In March 2019 SD made a legal complaint Avenatti embezzled US$300,000 of advance for her book. Avenatti was charged and sentenced to 4 years prison for stealing from SD and some other crimes.

Commenting from prison recently, Avenatti said SD and Cohen’s testimonies against Trump were all lies. He said it was all an extortion racket by SD and Cohen to extract money from Trump. He was willing to be defence witness. Trump’s defence team did not take up his offer.

My note : The defence was right in not calling Avenatti to testify. His story, even if true, has nothing to do with Bragg's case.

Timeline:

2006 - the sex scene.
2015 August – Cohen and Pecker agreed to be listening post for negative Trump stories.
2016 October 8 - Pecker and Cohen heard of SD in the market to sell her story.
2016 October 8 - Cohen negotiated with Avenatti the price of US$130,000.
2016 October 26 – Avenatti warned editor SD is shopping for another media.
2016 October 26 – Cohen incorporated special vehicle, took out HELOC loan.
2016 October 26 – Cohen wired US$130,000 to Avenatti.
2016 October 26 – Cohen received NDA signed by SD.
2017 February – Cohen invoiced received 2 months fees from a Trust fund.
2017 Jan to Dec – Cohen received 10 months fees @ US$35,000.
2018 – Cohen was charged in Manhattan District court.
2018 March 6 – SD sued to invalidate the NDA.
2018 May 2 Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani disclosed on TV interview that Trump had reimbursed Cohen for the payment.
2018 May 3 Trump tweeted he paid Cohen but denied the affair. It was paid to protect the family, not the election.
2018 August 21 – Cohen pleaded guilty.
2018 March 6 SD sued to invalidate the NDA.
2018 April 30 SD sued Trump for defamation and lost.
2018 September 8 SD voluntarily withdrew the suit.
2018 October 2 SD published her book ‘Full Disclosure’. Oh so, is this what it’s all about? By the way, she had US$800,000 advance for the book.
2019 SD lodged legal complaint against Avenatti for stealing US$300,000 of her book advance.
2023 March SD appealed and lost with cost US$300,000.

Trump, Cohen, Stormy Daniels and Avenatti all have good reasons to lie. Both Cohen and SD lied in court. SD portrayed herself as a sweet virgin who blacked out in the sex scene. The quintessential liberal show host Bill Maher said “For F sake, she is a porn star. Blacked out?” Maher showed an old video clip of an interview he had with her where she said the sex was just routine.

Now we understand why SD sued to invalidate the NDA after soliciting US$130,000 from Trump. She wanted to publish her book. The court case will create the bombshell for her book sales.

Why DA Bragg not mention the law:

Whether Trump had sex with SD has nothing to do with Alwin Bragg’s case. What the prosecution had to prove depends on the charge. This is a very unusual case where no specific statute was mentioned. The charge merely mentioned falsification of accounts to influence an election.

In NY, when a person falsifies business records, he commits the crime of falsifying business records in the second degree which is a Class A Misdemeanor.

But under New York Consolidated Laws, Penal Law - PEN § 175.10 :

A person is guilty of falsifying business records in the first degree when he commits the crime of falsifying business records in the second degree, and when his intent to defraud includes an intent to commit another crime or to aid or conceal the commission thereof. Falsifying business records in the first degree is a class E felony.

It is very clear this is a PEN § 175.10 case. Why Bragg refuse to mention this remains a mystery. It would be interesting to see what SCOTUS has to say about this. How can a person defend himself if he is not told he is being charged under which statute? Could it have something to do with the fact the second intended crime was a federal election for which the State of NY has no jurisdiction?

Did prosecution prove their case:

In law, intent is based on the presence of the dual elements of Mens Rea and Actus Reus. Mens Rea means ‘guilty mind’, referring to the intentionality behind committing a criminal act. Actus Reus is the ‘guilty act’, the physical component of the crime, whether it is conduct, circumstances or consequence forebidden by law. The Mens Rea and Actus Reus here refers to the second criminal act, in this case, to influence the outcome of the election.

In an election, candidates certainly will conceal all their weaknesses. Not quite sure if that is a crime in the first place. The point to be made here is did Bragg’s prosecutors show evidence and establish Mens Rea and Actus Reus to secure conviction? And the answer is no. Time spent by SD on the witness stand was on salacious aspects of the sex and with Cohen it was focused on his lies. It did obtain the fact Trump knew about the payment to Cohen was reimbursement for what he paid to SD. But this was already a known fact. There remains no evidence to tie Trump to giving green light for the ‘catch and kill’ for the stated purpose of influencing the election. Trump in fact could have done a Lee Kuan Yew. Let me explain.

Lee Kuan Yew was a Grand-master in getting tough jobs done without expressing his wishes directly. For example, if asked for instructions, or if he wanted his executives to take certain actions, in situations where post fact examinations may find questionable, Lee will allude to something completely innocuous. He once explained, as his subordinates, they should know what he wanted done. That way, there is nothing that ties him legally to the action taken.

So they want to pin a class E felony on Trump. For a felony, the bar is set very high. First, the evidence must prove beyond reasonable doubt. Second, unanimous jury decision is required. If there is one single juror who holds back because he has some doubt, it is a hung jury and a mistrial.

This trial is indeed rigged. The specific charge is not spelt out, the prosecution did not prove Mens Rea and Actus Reus of the second 'crime', and the Judge advised the jury they need not have to reach a unanimous decision to find defendant guilty.

'Hush money' sounds unsavory, but NDAs are not illegal and in fact, is very common practice. Keeping negative information out of public view, including from an electorate, may be an ethical issue but no violation of law. Posting an entry to an inappropriately named account may be matters bean counters argue over, but hardly the stuff of conspiracies. A conflicted judge whose daughter represent Democrats in fund raising and who makes millions basking in the publicity of a case he presides over is a big problem. A judge who denies the defence from explaining the laws of the case to the jury, and then himself spent an hour explaining the laws but never provide in written form to guide jurors, is disturbing.

Democrats’ Gotcha Moment:

More than half of America see the trial as a fix by the Democrats to prevent Trump running in the November election. If this were the case, then the Democrats has run into a gotcha situation. It’s like those movies where a small, seemingly inconsequential detail can lead to the downfall of even the most carefully planned crimes. Like in "The Great Train Robbery" (1978), everything went smoothly as planned. The gotcha moment was the peculiar cough of Agar, the character played by Donald Sutherland. The cough eventually led to the arrest of the gang.

The Democrats planned the lawfare against Trump very well. Their gotcha moment is they overlooked a piece of legislation. The US Constitution has only 3 qualifications for a President. Be born in the US, above 35 years of age, and has lived in the US in the last 14 years. Even a felon can be a President. The Democrats forgot to pass legislation to disqualify a convicted felon from running for President.

Ramifications Of A Jail Term for Trump:

Trump faces severe fines or maximum jail term of 136 years, 4 years for each charge. In Letitia James case, they wacked Trump a ridiculous US$350m for a no-crime. What would it be this time?

Should he go to jail, Trump can still campaign from within prison. Prisoners retain certain rights, including the ability to send and receive mail, make phone calls, and meet with visitors, subject to prison regulations. Direct participation in campaign events would be impossible. A campaign from prison is possible but has many challenges. There have been precedents.

Should Trump win 2024 election, can he pardon himself? The Constitution does not prohibit self-pardon which would certainly require a judicial review.

Can a President run the US Government from inside a prison? That would be ludicrous. The sentence would most likely be suspended.

Winning 2024 election is not enough. Trump needs to have the numbers in Congress to support him. I can see the first order of the day for Congress is for his political enemies, Democrats and RINOs, to try impeach him on grounds he is a convicted felon.

Under 18 USC § 3056 the Secret Service has to protect a President for life 24/7. Putting Trump in prison is going to be a logistical and security nightmare.

Conclusion:

As expected, the Liberal Left will go nuclear on coordinated media blasts touting ‘Convicted felon’ and ‘34 charges’. These are the soundbites they need because Biden and Democrats have nothing to counter Trump in the campaign trail. Economics, foreign policy, border security, law and order, education, wokeism, military weakness, weaponized judiciary, communist capture of institutions, state encroachment into private sphere, etc, the Democrats are bankrupt of ideas. In fact, they caused all these.

The Democrats have crossed the Rubicon. Every political advantage they hoped with their lawfare tactic will boomerang back on them double hard. Finding Trump guilty in what is seen by Conservatives, Independents, and an increasing number of Liberals, as a rigged trial, is a black swan event. This has caused a great awakening. On the day the verdict was out, Trump’s campaign donation website crashed. Those in digital marketing understands what this means. Trump received US$53m in small donations within 24 hours. It is both a show of support for Trump and indignation at the lawfare. As more prominent and celebrity type personalities think it’s time to cast aside their fear of being cancelled and come out to have their say, such as once ultra Democrat big time donor, silicon tech investor Shaun Maguire, this will embolden others and open the floodgate. A big shift to the Right and nationalist populism is taking place in the US.

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