PAP LEADERSHIP TRANSITION MODEL AND WHY INDRANEE IS FUTURE PRIME MINISTER

The graveyard of corporations that collapsed due to unethical behavior is populated by many whose demise bear two commonalities - (a) there was creative accounting involved, (b) only a handful of insiders knew what was happening. The lesson being exclusive corporate governance and opaqueness has existential risks.

In the case of Barings Plc (1995) only Singapore branch general manager Nick Leeson knew about the unauthorised speculative trades he was conducting. As for Enron (2001) only a few directors and executives knew about the large losses concealed. Recall the Carrian Group (1983) which took the live of Bank Negara Malaysia’s internal auditor in Hongkong, no one knew the small group involved, although Najib was a suspect. As for Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities (2008) good old Bernie seemed to be the only person in the driver’s seat. The list goes on.

Coming to Singapore Inc, how many people know the state of the national reserves? I think you can count with your fingers. Segregated responsibilities mean almost all functionaries have no idea of the big picture. Only a cloistered few are privy to state financial secrets. The stage is set for financial disaster when mistakes or losses are covered up, creating further mistakes and losses in a plunge down the rabbit hole, or when rogue elements control this inner circle. The men in whites believe in PAP moral determinism. As long as they are in government, there will be no financial indiscretion. But a fluke election might see an opposition in power. It is for this reason that first generation leaders revised the Constitution for an elected president to hold the second key to past reserves.

With election round the corner, many good folks have expressed opinions of how an upright and independent president can better protect national reserves and help set the moral compass for the government. To them, I have two words -’dream on’. The scope of the function of president is restricted to a ceremonial role. The president has absolutely no business with the acts of the Executive except for passing Spending Bills. That is the only time when the president can ensure expenditure does not dip into past reserves. Even then, it is one thing to look at budgets, and another thing when it comes to actual cashflows which has nothing to do with the president. Does President Halimah know where the S$25b to recapitalise MAS came from? It's not a spending, so Halimah heard about this only from the news like everyone else.  And should a president go kamikaze against government policies, Devan Nair and Ong Teng Cheong may have advice for him/her in their dreams.

It was no surprise Heng Swee Kiat was earmarked to take over the reigns from PM Lee Hsien Loong. When Heng’s ‘East Coast Plan’ evaporated and he had to recuse himself for health reasons, the selection process ensued. In many online discussions on leadership transition, in the guessing game, my money had always been on the one who end up as Finance Minister. Again it was no surprise LHL, de facto the party, will pass the baton to Lawrence Wong who landed the finance job.

My brother and I have been PAP watchers for decades and we have been right on the mark many times. We have been acutely aware of a certain predictability to LKY and PAP. On leadership transition the path is through famiLee (Singa-lingo for Lee family lineage), PMO (Prime Minister’s Office), MAS and MOF (Ministry of Finance). Goh Chok Tong, Lee Hsien Loong, Heng Swee Kiat, and Lawrence Wong, all flowed through one or more of these three agencies. The reason is obvious. They are all privy to state financial secrets. Keep top secrets exclusively to a tightly knitted few. In the case of PMO, lower level staffers must also have access to restricted state secrets. These personnel must by necessity be managed with kids’ gloves as reciprocal to sealed lips. See the rise of Grace Fu, Iswaran, Indranee, and Lucien Wong who never got charged for theft of documents and retains the AG post long past statutory retirement age?

Could that privileged position of untouchability have emboldened Iswaran to whatever acts that led to CPIB investigation? Iswaran’s case may end in one of 3 ways - (a) The law will take its natural course; (b) A negotiated way out with a light sentence; (c) Iswaran will go the way of Phey Yew Kok who promised to “tell all”, whatever that meant, and then disappear from the face of the Earth.

Indranee Rajah has been a Minister in PMO, currently is Second Minister for Finance, and Second Minister for National Development. She is also Leader of the House, in a position where she tries hard to emulate the no nonsense toughness of LKY. There is no doubt she is being groomed for higher office. Much will be clearer when LHL steps down and Wong takes over the premiership. Would Indranee take over Wong’s role as Minister of Finance, or will the coveted job fall to rumoured famiLEE Chan Chun Sing? Whoever takes the coveted MOF job is destined for top honcho crown.

My money is on Indranee, notwithstanding her biggest setback is she is not Chinese (actually Indian father, Chinese mother). Indranee has the honour of being the MP to represent LKY’s old constituency of Tanjong Pagar.

The leadership issue boils down to state financial secrets - “He who knows most, wins”. As it stands for now, none has a better claim to the seat than Indranee. All financial state secrets there are, whether good or bad, remain under tight control. That is the be-all and end-all.

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