THE SANCTION ON RUSSIA IS A FAUS PAS WHICH MAY TURN OUT COSTLY FOR SINGAPORE

Singapore's quick response sanction on Russia was a decision that could only be explained by one of 3 reasons. It was a public statement of support for international law, that no country has the right to invade another. Or it was an obsequious decision for Pax Americana. Or Singapore elites have bought into the Klaus Schwab WEF agenda for a One World Order ruled by billionaire Liberals.

Singaporeans are a pragmatic breed. It is unlikely for our hard-nosed government to foster the obsequity for the One World Order or Biden administration's pursuit of a decadent liberal culture of pedophiles, gender-transition, pronouns, wokeism, fentanyln, no limits abortion-on-demand, devil worshiping, child grooming, sexual induction of pre-schoolers, salutation of porn-like stag queens in schools, replacement of religious morals with normative egotism, get-out-of-jail-free cards for criminals, open borders, etc. The decision for sanction was most likely persuaded by economics calculation that factored in the low trade volume with Russia.

The rationale is bridge under water, but the consequences of that decision is troubling. There is a tectonic shift in world geopolitics of existential undertones for Singapore. I observe no concerns raised by community, business and national leadership in the absolute absence of relevant talking points. Russia now sees Singapore as an unfriendly state. The Lion City slipped on the banana skin in Moscow and it is more than the butt that is going to get hurt. 

The Indonesian President Joko Wibono returned recently from Russia with Putin's commitment to take a 45% equity and help set up a US$16B oil refinery plant in East Java. It will have a daily output capacity of 229,000 barrels and is meant for local consumption to help manage energy cost, which is rising. Who knows what the future of this industry portends for our southern neighbour.

Singapore is the leading oil refinery hub in this part of the world, a position that's unchallenged for decades. It has an output capacity of about 1.5m barrels per day. Refined petroleum and petrochemical products are crucial contributors to GDP and the sector is a major employer. The island's intra-oil trade with Indonesia alone nets about US$3-4B annually. Russia has just sent a very strong message.

As Russia is shunned by the West, it pivots to the East -- Eurasia, Middle East, China, India and Asean. Within Asean, Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar are more aligned with Russia. Cambodia and Laos are close to China. Malaysia is politically tilted towards China. Under Duterte, Philippies has shifted towards China and Russia. Thailand is ambivalent. Singapore is the sole pro-western country. As Russia deepens economic relations with Asean, which it is bound to do to make up for lost opportunities in the West, it will at the least sideline Singapore. At worst, it may influence Asean solidarity against Singapore.

Read: Singapore sanctions Russia - a betrayal of first principles in foreign relations

Fearful of US and EU world economic hegemony. Russia and China had organised a regional grouping Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) in 2002 and an economic block BRICS in 2009.

The ancient days of Ghenghis Khan and the Huns have shown that control over the Eurasian lands is key to security of the Eastern and Slavic worlds. To Russia and China, control over Central Asia prevents the eastward expansion of Nato influence. Western nations hold the views of Zbigniew Brzezinski since the 1960s that control over Central Asia is key to prevent a strong Sino-Ruso coalition.

The SCO is an economic and security grouping of the Central Eurasian region. Currently there are 6 members - Russia, China and 4 'tan' countries that share borders with the 2 giants. It is an important economic block accounting for 30% of global GDP and vast oil and gas reserves. Currently there are 6 states with 'Observer' status which includes India and Pakistan, and another 6 states with 'Dialogue Partner' status including Turkey. SCO thus has potential to grow membership and expand beyond it's initial Central Asia centric scope.

BRICS comprises of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa which together contributes 25% of world GDP. This is an economic grouping with primary objective of weaning themselves away from Western financial control. In this regards they created the New Development Bank to mobilise resources for projects in emerging and developing economies, hoping to diminish the dominance of western-controlled World Bank and IMF.

Two developments in the world today are giving impetus to importance of BRICS and SCO. One is the global threat to national sovereignty by the western One World ideology which is no longer an Alex Jones conspiracy theory. The Klaus Schwab led World Economic Forum now works in plain sight and openly declared their progressive liberal, eugenics and totalitarian intent, to create a world where everyone will "be happy but owns nothing" (because everything will be owed by them, of course.) The other is the disastrous leadership of Joe Biden who is now openly shunned and humiliated by many countries. Biden has openly aligned US foreign and domestic policies with the One World agenda. The Atlantic axis of US, EU, Canada, Australia and New Zealand are now being seen as untrustworthy and their unipolar worldview has seen a constant use of military might to impose their will on other nations. In the wake of the Ukraine war, western countries use of economic controls to cancel out Russia financially in ways never seen before has, more than anything else, demonstrated the threat to the rest of the world that the same can be applied to anyone who runs afoul of the wishes of the west in the future.

BRICS and SCO are attracting new interests with their multipolar worldview and multilateral policies. Their promise for recognition of national sovereignty is a magnet for weaker nations fearful of a One World Order of the western elites. Saudi Arabia has been invited to join BRICS and the Saudis are also considering to apply for membership of SOC where they currently has 'Observer' status. Turkey is currently a 'Dialogue partner' of SOC. They are planning on leaving EU to join SOC. The SOC has security links, thus Turkey has to leave the EU if it wishes to go full membership.

BRICS had very much earlier planned for a secure payment system that can work alongside and as backup to SWIFT. With the exception of South Africa, the other 4 countries have all implemented such a system that could replace SWIFT for secure transactions with each other. Disagreements amongst the countries have delayed a formal adoption. An original objective of BRICS was to replace the use of USD between their countries. Current drive is to promote the use of Yuan as the international currency, and the invitation of Saudi Arabia to join the organisation is without doubt, to marginalise the use of petrodollar. Quite likely, the use of Yuan will also be established in SOC. BRICS and SOC together account for about 40% global GDP which has the transactional volume to impact USD as international reserve currency. With growing worldwide distrust for US and the dollar, the money is on BRICS and SOC membership to expand and thus internationalisation of Yuan. It is not easy for Yuan to simply replace the USD overnight. A lot of legislation and capital markets infrastructure need to happen first. But that is not to say that it cannot happen. It is not a matter of if, but when. And the momentum for change is growing.

Where does all this leave Singapore? Its position as an important global city for foreign exchange and money market is under threat. Singapore's pro-western stand automatically makes it unwelcome to SOC which is multilateral and for neutral countries. Russian dominance in BRICS and SOC ensures no role for Singapore as the two organisations expand and evolve into a new multi-polar world order. The banana slip in Moscow may cost Singapore dearly should the USD looses pre-eminence as world reserve currency and dynamics of financial centres change.