Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Temasek Tracking - Turquoise Hills, possibly US$1.1b lost in mining gamble


1993   Ivanhoe Mines Limited founded
2001   Ivanhoe discovered copper & gold deposits in Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia
2012   Temasek invested about US$850,000,000.
2013   Rio Tinto took over 51% of company.
2012   Name changed to Turquoise Hills Resources Ltd
2013   Rights issue. Temasek put up another US$604,000,000

Ivanhoe Mines is a Canadian mining company with some operations in Asia Pacific region. In Mongolia, its subsidiary, SouthGobi, operated the Ovoot Tolgoi coal mine. It also has interest in the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold-silver mine development project. 

The coal mine started operation in 2008. By 2012 the operation was curtailed due to adverse market conditions. In 2013 the company revised its annual reports for 2010, 2011 & 2012 due to change in accounting statements at its subsidiary SouthGobi. It's share price tanked. This led to a class suit action against the company for inflating its earnings and misleading investors. The case was dismissed in Dec 2014 by District Court.

Ivanhoe found the copper and gold deposits in Oyu Tolgoi in 2001. It is considered the worlds largest copper and gold deposits.
 In 2010 the reserves were placed at 81.3 billion pounds for copper and 46.4 million ounces for gold. Negotiations with the Mongolian government took an arduous journey with issues of corruption, social, political, environmental impacts, power supply and the huge financing required (US$6b for phase I). A final sharing agreement was reached with government taking 34% and the company 66% in equity.

In 2012 Rio Tinto increased their holdings in Ivanhoe to 51% in order to drive the development of Oyu Tolgoi and arrange financing. Rio Tinto's involvement saw name change from Ivanhoe to Turquoise Hills and the divestment of the Ovoot Tolgoi coal mine. Turquoise is left with Oyu Tolgoi mines as its primary operation.

(Note the Ivanhoe Mines currently listed on the stock exchange is another metal company which later took over this name. Confusing.)

This was the background when Temasek invested into Turquoise Hills in 2012. It is a company with tremendous wealth still locked underground. The operations were initially open pit mining. It is going for phase II which is undergroung mining. But it is beset with huge cost overruns and high sovereign risks. Rio Tinto had to write off about US$1b impairment on their investment under the circumstances. Rio Tinto faces investor revolt in the handling of the Oyu Tolgoi project and Turquoise Hills faces investor investigation that it lied about the development cost of the mine. 

Meanwhile, Turquoise Hills' inability to move forward and produce results bear heavily on its share price. Currently, it is at risk of being delisted as its price has fallen below US$1.00. 

Temasek's investment and divestment:
Date
         Shares
High
       US$
Low
       US$
Apr 2012
5,213,970
US$9.68
50,471,230
US$9.68
50,471,230
Bought (*)
2012 Q3
80,548,227
US$8.48
683,048,965
US$8.48
683,048,965
Bought (*)
2013 Q4
85,762,197
US$7.04
603,765,867
US$7.04
603,765,867
2018 Q4
-64,029,206
US$3.43
-219,620,177
US$3.25
-208,094,920
14 Jan 2019
-7,240,756
US$3.57
-25,849,676
US$3.57
-25,489,676
 Sold







(*) Price based on valuation shown in SEC filing.

As at 31 Dec 2013 Temasek was holding 172m shares costing more than US$1.3b. It seems by Jan 2014, 71m shares have been sold which booked a realised lost of between US$392m - US$401m. 

SEC filing show as at 14 Jan 2019 balance of share was 100,254,432. It is not clear if this balance has been divested.

Turquoise Hills' SEC 2020 filing does not show Temasek as a major shareholder. It is possible the balance shares have already been disposed. It that's the case, it should have realised additional loss in the US$700m ballpark figure. This makes the total realised loss of the investment at about US$1.1b. 

If the balance of 100,254,432 shares are still in Temasek's books, the unrealised loss as of todate is about US$697m.

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Temasek's investments in oil companies has'nt been rosy. Check out other companies I have covered :    FTS International, Chesapeake, Cheniere,   Kunlun Energy,   Orchard Energy
Seven Energy  Venari Resources




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