THE REAL REASON WHY PAP WiNS ELECTION AFTER ELECTION

Well, General Election 2025 is over and the PAP has won 65.57% of the popular vote. This is a surprisingly stronger mandate against 61.23% win in 2020 GE. Congratulations to Lawrence Wong and his team. Pundits one and all have their reasons for the PAP win which includes gerrymandering, usual bogeyman fearmongering by the lighting bolt, Trump effect, Singaporeans bought by CDC vouchers, etc.

Given our low population and new citizenships granted each year which average about 21,000 annually, the impact on the general elections of Singapore is likely to be significant. Singapore's immigration policy is to augment the working population, so it makes sense citizenship is granted to mostly working adults. For our purpose here, two assumptions are made:

(1) The voting age is 21 years, but immigration data available show age distribution with lowest age band of 20 years and below. Let's simply accept the cut off at age 20. The error probably has insignaficant statistical relevance.
(2) New citizens are likely beholden to the ruling party. This 'Beholden Factor' is assumed 100% votes for PAP in the first election, 50% in second election cycle, and 25% in the third election cycle.

In GE 2025 the popular vote garnered by PAP was 1,564,770 compared to 2020 of 1,527,491. The increase in the number of votes was merely 37,279.

Now let's take a look at the ICA faucet for new citizens of voting age granted citizenship in:
2024 - 15,000 (estimated)
2023 - 15,056
2022 - 15,840
2021 - 13,805
2020 - 13,262
Total new voting citizens in 1st GE (2020-2024) 72,963 x 100% for PAP.
Total new voting citizens in 2nd GE (2015-2019 see below) 68,559 x 50% = 34,280 for PAP.
Total new voting citizens in 3rd GE (2009-2014 see below) 59,134 x 25% = 14,784 for PAP.
Total new citizens impact on 2025 GE was 122,027.
Without factoring in these new voters means that for GE 2025, the PAP actually lost 84,749 votes (122,028-37,279) over the previous GE.

Is the immigration data just a fluke shot to explain GE 2025? Alright, let's take a look at GE 2020.

Again, ICA turned on the faucet for new voting citizens in:
2019 - 14,378
2018 - 14,026
2017 - 13,775
2016 - 13,662
2015 - 12,718
Total of new voting citizens in 1st GE (2015-2019) 68,559 x 100% for PAP.
Total of new voting citizens in 2nd GE (2010-2014 see below) 59,134 x 50% = 29,567 for PAP.
Total of new voting citizens in 3rd GE (2005-2009 see below) 40,723 x 25% = 10,181 for PAP.
Total new citizen impact on 2020 GE was 108,307. 

For GE 2020 PAP won 1,527,491 (61.24%) of the votes compared to GE 2015 when they won 1,579,183 (69.86%). Thus in GE 2020 PAP saw a lost of 51,692 over previous GE. Everyone with 2 cents worth said the significant lost was due to the fact the previous GE 2015 was exceptional as PAP benefitted from sympathy votes from the death of Lee Kuan Yew. In reality, the PAP lost was a massive 159,999 (108,307 + 51,692) votes in GE 2020 over the previous GE had it not been for the new citizens.

Let's now put the new citizenship factor to the test. Did it play a role in the PAP landslide victory in GE 2015 where LKY's death generated substantial sympathy votes. In GE 2015 PAP won 1,579.183 (69.86%) of the votes, compared to GE 2000 when it won 1,213,102 (60.14%), a gain of 366,081.

Hey ICA, how many new voting citizens were minted from 2010 to 2014?
2014 - 12,718
2013 - 12,096
2012 - 12,908
2011 -   9,782*
2010 - 11,630*
* Estimated 38% below voting age. 

Total of new voting citizens in 1st GE (2010-2014 see below) 59,134 x 100% for PAP. 

Total of new voting citizens in 2nd GE (2005-2009 see below) 40,723 x 50% = 24,361 for PAP.

Total of new voting citizens in 3rd GE (2000-2004 see below) 21,170 x 25% = 5,293 for PAP. 

Number of new voting citizens added were 88,788. Without these new citizens the gains were 277,293 (366,081-88,788). So yes, sympathy votes were indeed substantial even when new citizen votes are discounted.

The number of new voting citizens for 2000-2009 were:
2009 - 12,355*
2008 - 12,721*
2007 - 10,748*
2006 -   5,016*
2005 -   4,902*
2004 -   4,712*
2003 -   4,216*
2002 -   4,712*
2001 -   4,030*
2000 -   3,500 (estimated)
* Estimated 38% below voting age. 

Total new voting citizens in 1st GE (2005-2009) 40,723.
Total new voting citizens in 1st GE (2000-2004) 21,170.

The "Beholden Factor" assumed at 50% for 2nd GE and 25% for 3rd GE cycle voting in favour of PAP is in fact very conservative. It could possibly be 100% for 3 GE cycles running. In other words, PAP winning on the low side of 60% is not landslide victory. Without new citizens voting, PAP could have lost possibly 3 or 4 elections ago.

What the data demonstrates is the opposition have missed the forest for the trees in the last few elections. They should have spent 90% of their time attacking the dominant factor that favoured the PAP. All other issues including inflation pale into insignifance.

Lee Kuan Yew once famously mentioned he foresee a day may come when citizens get disenchanted with the PAP and give their votes to the opposition. Well, he was wrong. The PAP, either by chance, or by design, has found a way where the votes will be locked in their favour perpetually.

 

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