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Tuesday, August 31, 2021

FDA Approved Pfizer Vaccine For Covid-19 - Did Science Cave-in To Politics?

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has an Emergency Use Listing (EUL) protocol that assesses the suitability of novel health products during public health emergencies. At the moment, the EUL of Covid-19 vaccines consists of Pfizer/BioNTech, Astrazeneca-SK Bio, Serum Institute of India, Astra Zeneca EU, Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), Moderna and Sinopharm.

All countries are solely responsible for their own national vaccination policy. State health agencies generally take their cues from WHO guidelines.

The US Food and Drug Agency has its own Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) protocol. At the moment, Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine, Moderna Covid-19 Vaccine and Janssen Covid-19 Vaccine are the 3 approved labels for emergency use in US by FDA. As regards drugs and food generally, many countries also take their cues from the FDA.

On 23 August 2021, Pfizer received approval for their label Comirnaty to be used as vaccine for Covid-19. It is very clear FDA fast-tracked the approval process as Pfizer submitted its application recently some 3 or 4 months ago. The approval has been given without the required third clinical trial. This development comes with legal conundrum and questions ought to be raised.

EUA regulations mandate that a drug can only be authorised for emergency use if "There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for diagnosing, preventing, or treating such serious or life-threatening disease or condition."

There have been claims by many medical practitioners that some alternative theraupetic treatments have proven effective against Covid-19. Most often mentioned are Ivermectin, Hydroxychloroquine and Regeneron. Ivermectin is an anti-parasite medication, hydroxychloroquine is an anti-malarial drug which is also used to treat autoimmune diseases, and Regeneron is a monoclonal antibody drug. High success rates have been reported for those who received treatment early.

The FDA does not authorise the use of Ivermectin, Hydroxychloroquine and some other theraupetic treatments for Covid-19. Many have claimed the ban on the use of these alternatives in US for Covid-19 patients have been made against evidenciary proof that they actually worked very well. Whether this FDA position is in order for the emergency use of the 3 Covid-19 vaccines to remain in compliance with EUA laws is up for conjecture. 

Of all alternative theraupetics, only Regeneron has been approved by FDA for emergency use. Regeneron is the drug used on President Trump in October 2020 that had him back on his feet within a week. Merck received EUA for Regeneron in November 2020 but this fact has largely remained out of public talking heads and mainstream media.

What difference does it make to Pfizer whether their vaccine has FDA approval or not?  Approved vaccine comes with high liability risks. Under emergency use, the EUA provides non-liability protection. It goes without saying Pfizer would prefer to market with no liability risks. So the question has to be asked of Pfizer as to why they submitted their application for approved use, especially before the 3rd clinical trial.

The approval for Pfizer's Comirnaty presents the FDA with a dilemma. Since Comirnaty has received approval, all other EUA vaccines and drugs are required by law to be withdrawn. With power lobbies and a powerful Bill Gates to contend with, FDA will continue with the EUA. No big pharma should be denied their golden opportunity to make billions. If the FDA has no intention to withdraw the EUA, why approve Comirnaty years ahead of usual pathway to authorisation?

The puzzling actions of both FDA and Pfizer for the early approval of Comirnaty can only make sense as a political expediency. An approved vaccine advances the justification for mandating vaccination and service denial for those who refuse to take the jab. Biden's target of 160 million vaccinated is stalling. With an approved vaccine, a tougher approach to vaccinate looms.

How then will FDA resolve the dilemma of having both an approved vaccine (Comirnaty) and EUA ( Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Janssen Covid-19 vaccines and Regneron drug) at the same time? They need to monkey around the system. Comirnaty and Pfizer-BioNtech Covid-19 Vaccine are one and the same thing. Pfizer needs to specially re-label Comirnaty to market it. For as long as Pfizer has no Comirnaty-labelled products, ie, it is not available, then the EUA laws have not been breached. Pfizer will play ball. So for all intents and purposes, Comirnaty will not be available in the market for the foreseeable future. Why should Pfizer re-label and sell as Comirnaty and take on liability risks when they can sell Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine without liability. The monkeys say caveat emptor, 'approved' and 'available' are not one and the same.

Comirnaty and Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine are exactly they same. But here's the twist. Pfizer-BioNTech Covid 19 Vaccine is authorised for emergency use for ages 12 and above. Comirnaty is approved for use for ages 16 and above. It's an anomaly when the one that is approved has more restrictive use than the unapproved one. What it means is that in light of lack of data, Pfizer is more risk averse (for liability, not for public safety) whereas the FDA has a more eugenic outlook.

Nowadays, one can never be certain of what is in the public domain. Players doctor data and information, even to the extent where lives and public safety are involved. Take New York Governor Cuomo for example. For some assurance I wrote to the chair of our Multi-Ministry Task Force for Coronavirus to guage the impact of this FDA approval. My primary concern is are we to expect a tougher stance against the unvaccinated. I have no delusion of a reply, but nevertheless one can only try.



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Saturday, August 28, 2021

Don't be fooled by Cryptocurrency Market Capitalisation And Volumes - they mean absolutely nothing

In the cryptocurrency world, two words are hyper-exagerated to suck non-players into a technology that produces nothing. Market capitalisation and volumes are supposedly data to electrify the senses of something humongous. Yet the reality is, both do not mean anything.

Market capitalisation:

Market capitalisation of an asset is the quantification of an asset based on its supply and last traded price. It is a simple equation of S x P = MC. It supposedly provides an idea of the size of the asset in the market.

Price is what a willing buyer is prepared to pay for an asset. In a logical world, the buyer is willing to pay for something that is worth its value to him.

In the equities market, the worth of the shares in a company can be assessed on some bases of valuation. These would include factors like quality of products or services, product life cycle, the demand forecasts, market share, price sensitivity, competition, raw material availability, patents, regulatory changes, weather, financial status, etc. Investors have some sense of value that constrains price movement of the shares. In other words, in the equities market, capitalisation shows the asset size and reflects values.

In the case of cryptocurrencies, there is no basis for valuation. Does any investor perform any extensive fundamental and technical analysis of each crypto blockchain? Zero. The equation S x P = MC has no valuation constraint. Simply increase either variable S or P and the market cap explodes. For example, a crypto XYZ with 10m tokens has par value of $1 which all investors pay and thus market cap of $10m. If an investor can be persuaded to buy a token for $2, the market cap is immediately increased to $20m. The $20m is not the valuation of the crypto, it is a meaningless number. The crypto project with the higher number of tokens tends to have higher market cap. It deceives unwary investors into believing the token with the higher cap has more stability, whilst the lower caps have more upward price opportunities. With the high volatility of cryptos, all token prices swing wildly.

The market cap for cryptocurrencies is a metric about price, and the price has NOTHING to do with value. It is thus a deadly mistake to apply the assumption that what the market is willing to charge for a crypto asset is equal to what it’s worth. When prices of cryptos explode and market caps hit the roof, gullible investors mistake it as asset values have increased. It is a market ripe for manipulation.

A further 2 points to note on market cap:

1. Technically, crypto circulating supply numbers are always over counted. There are significant numbers of tokens that are lost in the system due to owners forgetting their private keys. Bitcoin for example, has about 20% of its supply tied up as lost tokens but they are counted in the circulation supply.

2. In both equities and cryptocurrencies, when there is a crash, media headlines are "$$$$ wiped off". This is based on the market cap. It is a silly number because not all investors had invested in at the last traded price. In the crypto XYZ example above, if the crypto crashed to zero, investors did not loose $20m which was the market cap. They lost the $10m that they invested in.

Volumes :

A similar silliness is seen in cryptocurrency volumes or market turnover.

In the Equities market, the buyer pays up with real money. Fiat enters the stock market. The total volume represents real money that went into the market. There is a relocation of economic resources aka capital aka fiat into the stock market.

In the case of Foreign exchange market, both parties pay out the currency they are selling. Again, real money or fiat enters the market. Volume is represented by real money transactions.

In the case of cryptocurrencies, where the traded currency pair does not involve a fiat, such as a bitcoin/ether (BTC/ETH) deal, no real money enters the market. The trade is simply the exchange of 2 tokens within the market. No real money is involved. No economic resource is pumped into the market. What then does the volume represent? Absolutely nothing. As blogger Bitfinex'ed described, they might as well be exchanging Pokemon cards.

Volume counts only when real money is added to the market. In cryptocurrency exchanges, this happens only when one of the currencies in the traded pair is a fiat, eg BTC/USD.

Let's see how it looks like on a typical 24 hour trading day.

The 99 highest traded pairs totaled US$69.4B. Out of this total volume, only US$8.68 involved real money ($ and Yen) entering the market, or about 12.7%. In terms of real economic resources entering the market daily, the cryptocurrency market is actually very small. The bulk of the market comprises of people exchanging Pokemon cards.

The highest trading currency pair is BTC/USDT (Bitcoin/Tether). It is also apparent Tether is the token that is most heavily traded, surpassing Bitcoin. Tether now has a very important role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

As the cryptocurrency market is price-driven which has nothing to do with values, it is easily open to manipulation, aided further that it operates in non-regulatory space. Has there actually been manipulation? In a follow up blog, we look at the role of Tether and the suspicious nature of its operation.




Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Singapore Cryptocurrency Market - Tharman got it wrong about the size

How big exactly is the cryptocurrency market in Singapore? Very small, according to Senior Minister Tharman when he addressed Parliament in April. He mentioned the 3 major trades in SGD (SGD/BTC, SBD/ETH and SGD/XRP) adds up to just 2% of the daily trading volume of Singapore Stock Exchange in 2020.

Was Tharman right? Yes, in so much as the SGD/crypto pairs are concerned. However, currency pairs involving SGD forms only a tiny fraction in the cryptocurrency market. The major pairs are USD/BTC, BTC/USDT (Tethers) and some others. To quantify the market size, certainly the volume must include all currency pairs. The data is not available but the market is obviously way much bigger than what the minister indicated.

To what extent has Singapore adopted cryptocurrency? The Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index 2020 by Chainanalysis has Singapore at number 50 out of 154 countries. This Index expresses adoption at the grassroots level of everyday users. Its methodology and metrics accounts for a country’s population and wealth in addition to pure market size.

Drilling down to the 4 metrics for Singapore:

Singapore is ranked at a significant high level at 8th place in terms of the number of users. This is not in terms of actual numbers, but on population-weighted basis. It represents a high percentage of Singapore residents are investing in cryptocurrencies relative to other countries.

Caveat : This Index relies only on on-chain data for the first 3 metrics. Obviously off-chain data is not available. It is also not possible to detect the correct countries where users operate through VPNs. The 4th metric P2P data is off-chain. It is based only on data from 2 of the largest P2P platforms. Thus this metric does not capture all trades but a good portion of it for a fair approximation.

To view the Global Crypto Adoption Index with full metric details, click here.

Cryptocurrency prices move with no apparent economic fundamentals. Its high volatility makes it a very high risk market, especially for retail investors. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has periodically advised the public “to act with extreme caution and understand the significant risks they take on if they choose to invest in cryptocurrencies."

While the MAS cautions the public, the government is keen on building Singapore as an East Asian Hub to attract cryptocurrency companies and executives to its shores. Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by trading volume, and it's CEO Changpeng Zhao, has moved to the city-state in recent years whilst 5 other jurisdictions are conducting investigation into their operations and UK has banned the company. There are more than 90 companies offering “digital payment token service” operating in Singapore under licence exemption until they have been formally approved. About 170 companies have applied for licence under the Payment Services Act (2019) which governs digital payment token services.

Payment Services Act 2019 was passed to regulate crypto token payment service providers. These entities are regulated primarily for money laundering and terrorism financing risks. MAS vets applicants for the robustness of their risk management systems, compliance requirements and standards. The regulatory regime covers the extent necessary to protect customers and includes the FATF's “Travel Rule” guidance that requires maintenance of personally identifiable information (PII) about customers sending and receiving funds over a certain amount. So even as many countries are clamping down on cryptocurrency companies over concerns of unregulated activity, high energy consumption, money-laundering or terrorist funding, Singapore has now officially recognised this virtual financial industry. And cryptocurrency companies love Singapore for the regulatory clarity.

Early this month, Independent Reserve, an Australian exchange, became the first to receive an “in principle” approval from the MAS. The industry is excited with this. Singapore is confidently poised to take advantage of the China overreach as it implements stricter control measures on the freewheeling industry. Operators in mainland China and Hongkong are fidgety and likely to relocate offshore. Singapore's open arms beckon. Building the cryptocurrency ecosystem sits well with Singapore's position as a major financial market and its goal of developing fintech and blockchain innovation, as well as in wealth and asset management.


Friday, August 13, 2021

Did The Bible Warn Us Of Vaccination?

This is not a doomsday prediction, which so far has a very poor track record. This is also not quoting from Bible to prove anything. Confirmation bias and blowing up a few coincidences to establish a full narrative is difficult to pass a smell test. Liberals can take it as just something interesting to talk about. The faithful may want to take it as a warning of sorts.

Book of Revelation 18:23 (KJV) : “And the light of a candle shall shine no more at all in thee; and the voice of the bridegroom and of the bride shall be heard no more at all in thee: for thy merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.”

This is the eschatology that talks about the fall of Babylon. The King James version adopts the word "sorceries". In the Septaugint, the Greek word is “Pharmakeia” which means the use of drugs, poison, witchcraft, magic. I'm sure you are jumping ahead of me. Yes, the English word Pharmacy is derived from the Greek Pharmakeia.

The aphorism 'all medications are poisons' is probably something freshmen at medical schools hear on their first day in class. Medicines interfere with normal cellular processes in some ways. They poison some enzymes or molecules in our bodies. It is beneficial to disease treatment by proper management of the dosage. What goes without much scrutiny is the fact that many people die of medicinal poisoning every year. Medicinal treatment is a matter of risk-benefits analysis.

So what we have here in Revelation 18.23 is Babylonians and all nations were deceived into taking pharmakeia, which poisoned bodies and minds. The parallelism to our current situation is the covid vaccination thrust upon the entire world, under a cloud of FUD - fear, uncertainty, and doubt. And of course, suppression of information and data. That much is undeniable, however one thinks of the pros and cons of vaccination. The question for the present, is whether there is deception for pharmacy (vaccination) as there was for pharmakeia in Babylon.

In the Biblical world, deception is dealing with an ancient enemy we manifest in the being Satan. He was there from the very beginning in the Garden, as the Serpent that tempted Eve the gift of knowledge with a bite of the forbidden fruit. Today we too are tempted by knowledge, or science to take untested vaccine for emergency use with disappointing efficacy and long term effects unknown. Will the artificial spiked protein damage organs and muddle brains? The Serpent deceived Eve. Are the medical institutions deceiving all nations with the vaccine? Great is the ingratitude to suggest the medical profession, the institutions, the whole complex structure of the health services, are trying to deceive the world. Of course not. There are thousands and thousands of good folks out there saving lives. Perhaps in symbolism, there is an answer.

Aesculapius was the Greek god of medicine. He was the son of Apollo and grandson of Zeus, the uno numero in the Greecian pantheon of gods. Aesculapius carried with him a staff with a serpent coiled around it. How great the irony the god of medicine adopted a symbol that depicts the serpent, as Satan did in Eden. Today's medical symbol has two serpents in coitus and coiled around a staff, topped by a pair of wings. Perhaps a case of two snakes are better than one. This symbol is called the caduceus. It came from the Grecian god Hermes, or Jupiter to the Romans. Hermes is a messenger of the gods and is associated with commerce, eloquence, alchemy, lying and a protector of thieves and merchants. The Great Deceiver makes use of everyone at his disposal.

In the occult world, the caduceus is used in witchcraft and sorcery to cast spells and to restrain and control victims. Baphomet is the winged hermaphrodite goat-like being with horns and hooves. Right in his mid-section is the caduceus. Baphomet is the modern representation of Satan. Statutes of him has appeared in some places, the original in the Temple of Satan in Detroit, USA. The photo here shows the statute of Baphomet unveiled in the temple.

Baphomet is a mystery. Some said it started with the Crusaders. They were supposed to have found some secrets in the underground stables in Jerusalem. After which, although they continued with the task of protecting Christian pilgrims, their faith seemed to have changed. They were accused of practicing occult, desecrating the cross, and praying to a skull. Some believed they had found the skull of John the Baptist. They were arrested by King Philip IV of France, charged for heresy, and burnt at the stakes on Friday 13th, 1307. Whilst on the stakes, the last Crusade leader Jacques de Molay, cursed King Philip and his entire descendants. Some of his curses manifested and that was how the Friday 13th legend started. In the trials, some Crusaders confessed they worshiped an entity they called Baphomet. It remains a mystery who is Baphomet. Some have suggested it's old French version of Mahomet (Mohamud). The statute of Baphomet is a Hermaphrodite, which is the condition of having both male and female reproductive organs. Extreme Left liberals think Baphomet represents non-faith knowledge. Now you can see the depravity of the extreme Left Liberals in US and their gender juxtapositions.

We can see how the pandemic and vaccination is being played out. The population is controlled by FUD, and restrains are coming if not already here. Merchants, i.e. Big pharmas, are protected by non-liability sales contracts for the untested vaccines. Commerce, i.e. pharmaceutical companies, prosper by the billions. Information suppression and lying false information prevails. And who can outwit the eloquence, and the funding capabilities, of Bill Gates as he gate-crashed the WHO party and took over the world vaccine production by coalescing big pharma under his ACT-Accelerator initiative. The WHO and other world bodies had worked on the C-TAP initiative that promotes open licensing and knowledge sharing to maximize production and access thus making the vaccines cheaper to all the poorer nations. Bill Gates fought hard for the legacy rationale that intellectual property fundamentally underpins innovation. Moderna and Pfizer ends up using state research grants but retain exclusive intellectual property rights and monopoly control of the vaccines. Bill Gates' insertion into the world health pandemic handling has prevented tech-transfer to facilitate production in other countries. The consequence is a worldwide shortage of vaccine for distribution. Bill Gates seeks to address the tech-transfer question within the usual frame of monopoly rights and bilateral licensing.

What is my personal take on all these? 

The pandemic brings out a lot of end time prophecies. Here's an example. The Immunisation Action Coalition is an NGO that works with various parties like WHO, CDC etc in the area of immunisation. On 29 May 2007 they issued a publication on influenza pandemic guidance, large scale vaccination, and sharing of influenza viruses and vaccines. Did they predict the 2020 pandemic? And this May 2007 publication was article serial number 666.

Babylon is already past. Relating Revelation about Babylon to the end days for present times is an anachronism. In any case, Jesus himself said at the Mount of Olives "No one knows about that day or hour, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father".... Matthew 24.

As for Baphomet, the statute is a present day invention. The French occultist Eliphas Levi drew the caricature not too long ago in 1886. Depraved extreme Leftist grew enamoured of the drawing. Depraved minds gyrate to works of decadence, debauchery, revulsion of which the caricature represents to most, I would think. But who knows, Levi could have received inspiration from Satan in the wee hours of the night.

There are too many coincidences in Revelation 18-23 and symbolism to the present day situation.  Albert Einstein said "Coincidences is God's way of remaining anonymous". The warnings are free. Take it or leave it.  

Thursday, August 12, 2021

Dover Forest Public Housing Project And The 10 Million Population Target

Many have commented on the proposed Dover Forest development. Almost the entirety of comments related to mundane issues of having green lungs, preserving natural habitats, use alternative sites, etc. I blogged on same topic and raised two big picture issues.  

Read : "Critical Spectator says Dover Forest development a good one, Singaporeans should suck it up"

One issue I raised was the population of Singaporeans (newbies excluded) has plateaued, so what exactly is the continued fervour of public housing all about? HDB provided a good write up of the proposed HDB estate, including various demographic data. However, the elephant in the room was data on new citizens and permanent residents.

Curious, I tried to dig in on the data. Here are the facts (data pertains to 2020 status) :

Singapore citizens         3,523,000
Permanent Residents       521,000
                                       -------------
Residents                       4,044,000
Non-Residents               1,642,000
                                       -------------
                                       5,686,000
                                       -------------

21.3% of households live in private housing.
Thus the number of residents living in public housing is 4,044,000 x 78.7% = 3,183,000.
The average household size is about 3.22.
Thus the number of households in public housing is 3,183,000 / 3.22 = 989,999.
The number of housing units built by HDB, SIT, HUDC, JTC and currently in use is about 1,074,667 (researched according to Teoalida.com).

Of course on a going concern basis, there will always be demand due to mobility across estates and unit sizes as well as household breakoffs due to marriages etc. But in terms of gross numbers, the inventories of public housing seem to be at optimum.

The HDB has a detailed explanation for the proposed Dover Forest estate, including data on demographics. But what stood out like a sore thumb is the elephant in the room - new citizens and PRs. Like all ministries across the board, the HDB is silent on this.

The continued breakneck pace of HDB estate development can only mean one thing. It is obvious the building plan is driven by population growth from immigration. Lie Thai Ker's magic number of 10 million is still in play.

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Critical Spectator says Dover Forest development a good one, Singaporeans should suck it up


Foreign resident Critical Spectator's (CS) recent post on Facebook praised the Government's approach to the Dover Forest development as world class. He was upset at people who objected. To this people, his name calling lexicon includes "ignorant naysayers", "habitual naysayers", "complainers who think they have all the answers", "people who want to bash the authorities", "politically valuable group (suckers for those who seek influence - perpetuating misinformation in the process", etc. To CS, non-supporters are people who "...complain about allegedly shrinking greenery, people complain about rising apartment prices, people complain about immigrants who, also allegedly, not only steal jobs but also take up space from Singaporeans."

"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people" is often attributed to Eleanor Roosevelt, few knows she was paraphrasing historian Henry Thomas Buckle. Now, CS has some good points, but his intolerance, and bashing of contrarian Singaporeans, puts a blight on his writings and sadly relegates it to Eleanor's third category. Another thorn is his tendency for PAP fawning, by framing contrarian comments as political narratives.

I have to say CS does his homework, although I suspect there is a team behind him. The giveaway is the data and info he comes up with in relatively short time. If this were true, then obviously he is a fraud. I will give him the benefit of doubt he is a prima facie innocent blogger just like me. His 'data' often makes it difficult for his detractors to take him on, however much they hate his fawning posts. His Facebook site is an echo chamber of 20,000 odd subscribers who lap up every sliver of opposition denigration CS dishes out.

Dover Forest site was rezoned for development back in 2003. The Environmental Baseline Survey (EBS) was opened Dec 2020 for 4 weeks for public feedback. CS wondered why naysayers are popping out of the woodwork now. He accused people of being too lazy to check out the EBS. The facts are, in Singapore, rezoning of state land is fairly routine. People get interested only when plans are fairly detailed which may be decades or more later. Contrary to his perception, the public feedback generated lots of interest. It had to be extended by a further 4 weeks and attracted about 1,800 reponses. Pretty good public participation.

Many followers of CS pointed out that Singapore has the highest ratio of greenery compared to other cities in the world. While this is good and correct, we need to appreciate that unlike other cities, Singaporeans don't have a countryside or hinterland to retreat to.

I have always believed that events such as this are teaching moments. It would be good if one has something to share, please to do so. Tie up the lashing tongues.

Singapore is land scarce and with a high urban density, a recipe for conflicting demands for conservation against development. Industrialisation, high economic development, population growth, and affluence have converged to skew land use primarily as productive resource. Whilst the impact of climatic change has elevated the importance of environment protection worldwide, this has not been prime mover for Singapore. Our swamps are all gone, we chopped down hills, and we have large scale coastal reclamation up to 10-20 metre depths. Singapore lacks constitutional protection for land rights and there are no environmental laws.

Our conservation initiatives are driven by the recognition of the need to live with nature. Our 2 basic preservation laws are (1) Wild Animals and Birds Act (“WABA”) protects all wild animals and birds, and (2) Parks and Trees (Preservation of Trees) Order 1991 which makes it illegal to cut down trees with a girth of more than one metre, measured a half-metre from the ground.

We have 4 natural reserves (Bukit Timah Nature Reserve, Central Catchment Nature Reserve, Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserve and Labrador Nature Reserve) are protected under the Parks and Trees Act. Twenty other sites are subject to administrative safeguards under the Parks and Waterbodies Plan.

WABA protection extends to state land and private land, but not land used for development. This means if you and I trap wild life or pick wild fauna anywhere in Singapore, police can come after us. But in the name of development, the government can do anything, anywhere.

Absence of environmental laws has provided some lessons. Example the Pan Island Expressway was allowed to cut through the catchment area resulting in many wild animals being run over by vehicles. The government had wanted to reclaim the Chek Java coastal area. Their studies indicated there was nothing there worth preserving. The Nature Society did an independent study and concluded there was a natural habitat for marine wild life. Fortunately the government later shelved their development plans. The biggest tree that ever existed in Singapore which had a girth of at least 3 metres, once stood proudly at the junction of Old Changi Road and Tampines Expressway. I used to pass by everyday, and suddenly one day in the 1980s, the landmark grand old dame just disappeared.

So while there are laws to protect wild life and fauna from you and I, there are no laws to keep the long arms of the government off. A fairly recent legal  development in environmental law to help preserve natural habitats and biodiversity, is the doctrine of public trust. This places stewardship responsibility on land owners. It implies the public has a beneficial interest in the land, in respect of common use of the land. This is important because public trust doctrine now gives the public locus standi to bring landowners to court. It also imposes on the government, being the proponent for the change of use of the land, the onus of providing proof that the development is in the better interest of the public. This doctrine has been succesfully applied in several jurisdictions including India, Philippines and Australia.

No public trust doctrine has ever been tested in Singapore. But don't keep your hopes high because when it comes to an issue of administrative laws vs public interest, Singapore courts have taken the conservative constructive approach, giving deference to the executive who is in a better position than the courts to know what is in the public interest.

Nevertheless, all is not lost because Singapore is a signatory of World Charter for Nature, and the Earth Charter. The government will adopt the good universal standard practices of habitat, ecosystems and biodiversity protection. We can see this idea of land stewardship has been internalised by the government. "Stewardship" is constantly mentioned in websites and annual reports of various relevant govenrment entities.

“I have always believed that a blighted urban jungle of concrete destroys the human spirit. We need the greenery of nature to lift up our spirits.”... Lee Kuan Yew

The Singapore government operates by Concept Plans, mostly transparent, with time scales, pathways and measurable goals. As regards conservation of natural biodiversity, Singaporeans ought to be proud. We probably can claim to be the first to pay attention to the natural environment long before climate change threats woke everyone else up. Right up to Independence 1965, I was a village kid living at the base of a hill. My world was the surrounding secondary forest and bushland. Sometimes I would read my books up in the trees. Back then I used to walk home from school, everyday passing by the Tanglin Halt apartment blocks. The sheer monotony of flats, in perfect line up formation like contingent of soldiers on parade square, on flattened landscape with hardly any trees around, depressed me a lot. Then in 1967 I heard PM Lee talked about his vision for a Garden City and Singapore has never looked so drab and dreary and depressing after that.

Singapore's concept plans for the environment has evolved.
1967 - Garden City Initiative
1992 - Spore green plan
2002 - SGP 2012
2006 - SGP 2012 revised
2009 - Sustainable Singapore Blueprint 2015-2030 (Read here)

So whilst we have no environmental laws, but great frameworks and plans, has the government played ball? In all fairness I have to say, in general, it has. There have been hiccups like Chek Java and the PIE cutting the catchment area, but I think lessons were learnt. The government has planned, transparent in their plans, and nearer to development they have worked with stakeholders like conservationists and other experts, and allowed public participation in accepting feedbacks and suggestions. The Dover Forest project is the latest illustration.

Critical Spectator bashed out at naysayers. But I think, in all endeavours, it is always good to have naysayers. If you have objections, do protest. It is your right under the public trust doctrine because there is a common ownership to stateland. But for heaven's sake, do so intelligently and respectfully. Contribute as a positive protestor. One great point of the Dover Forest pushback in my view, is the active work done by MP Christopher de Souza. Standing up for their constituents against government policies is never a forte of PAP members of parliament.

Finally, what is my personal take on the development plan for Dover Forest. Firstly, the public trust doctrine places the onus on the government to show that their plans is not in breach of the trust placed upon them to ensure common heritage of these natural resources is not impaired and any development undertaken is done under compelling reasons. The site is to be developed for a new public housing estate and the HDB has published a full explanation and the justification for the project. I have no quarrels with the process. Secondly, whilst an Environmental Baseline Survey was done, there was no detailed Environmental Impact Assessment of which the EBS forms a part. Thirdly, I do have issues at the big picture implications. Let me explain.

“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.” Edward Abbe, environmental activist

HDB gave a detailed drill down into the demographics and desirability of the Dover Forest area for a new township. I remain unconvinced that a stagnating Singapore core population has the unsatiable apetite for new housing estates. Unsold inventory in private housing remains extremely high and rising. Why is public housing so rosy given the population has plateaued? The part of the equation that the HDB has not been transparent is data relating to Permanent Residents and new citizenships. This hot potato will remain concealed so we will never know the extent to which it is the factor providing the continued pressure for public housing.

"Growth for the sake of growth" is the axiom of capitalism. And the Singapore Government is run very much on corporate practices. Once we step on the pedal of growth for growth sake, it becomes addictive and we can't lift the leg. It becomes the foundation for strategic thinking which leads on to short term tactics of economic growth on imported cheap labour. This leads on to wholesale PR and new citizenship policies. With an eye on growth, the government has totally lost track of equity. Stringent safeguards and practice of denialism have built up sovereign wealth. But the Pioneer and Mederka generations have been denied the fruits of their labour and sacrifices, the Millenials have to suffer depressed wages, whilst new citizens and PRs inherit the economic cake created by others.

Unlike Critical Spectator, as a foreigner, he sees only the small picture through the myopic scope of growth and thus he fawns on the best government in the world. Thus the Dover Forest project is the best in the world. Whilst I give credit to government for the process of the Dover Forest project, I feel it is driven by the growth for growth sake ideology  which renders inutile the sacrifice and efforts of land reclamation and freeing up lands with all sorts of initiatives like the Jurong caverns. The Lee Kuan Yew era of land reclamation was to create more space so we can improve the quality of our lives. There is a diminishing marginal utility to a strategy of freeing up more land to accommodate new people because growth for growth sake is like the Quroboros, the snake that eats its own tail. Unlike Critical Spectator who sees a perfect Dover Forest project, I feel it in my bones a deep sense of government betrayal.


Friday, August 6, 2021

SINGAPOREANS ARE DISRESPECTING THE NATIONAL FLAG

If you don't like the government, for whatever reasons, it is your right. Give your middle finger to anyone who suggests you should pack and leave. But if you don't like your country, then seriously, you should just go and be happy elsewhere.

Our national flag is the embodiment of our country. It is not just a piece of cloth. It represents us together as a nation of people with shared ideals and values enshrined in the constitution, the history we experienced, and our hopes and aspiration for our future. The flag has no political affiliation. It represents you and I, and all Singaporeans collectively. Throughout history, people have fought and died for their flag. We are so fortunate to have never gone into battles, but never trivialise the many who have sacrificed for the nation in ways that are never publicised, such as our frontline workers in this pandemic.

Honouring the flag is an act of patriotism.  To fly the flag is to show pride, love, commitment and loyalty to country. A flag raising ceremony is not an exercise in brain-washing, but a show of confidence as a people, in ourselves, in our past, in our future, and our place in the world.
Read : "The right to burn the flag"... Alex Au
Alex, a political commentator and gay activist, wrote this unforgiveable article in 2013. He intellectualised his right to burn the flag which, in his view, is nothing but a symbol of the government of the day. Essentially it is a PAP thing that the ruling party uses to coalesce the people behind their power. He made the distinction of government, which is aka the ruling power, and the nation, which is the people. There is nothing wrong to burn a piece of cloth representing the ruling party, according to Alex.

But Alex, in typical Liberal high altitude balloon, failed miserably to distinguish state or government flags from national flags. In other countries, mostly EU, the nations evolved from ruling kingdoms. All these kings or lords have coat-of-arms, which are symbols of their aristocratic family. When nations were formed under these kings, their state, or government flags, have the king's coat-of-arms imprinted on the flag. These are the flags flown at government premises. They have the same flags, but without the coat-of-arms, which are called the civil flags. These are the national flags the civilians use. Disrespecting the government flag is one thing, disrespecting the national flag is another. Many other countries, such as Singapore, have only one national flag. Our red and white is not the government flag, but belongs to the nation.

It is disappointing to see Alex promoting the burning of the flag in 2013. At about the same time, another social activist, Alfan Sa'at, held a stage performance where the national flag was timed to drop onto the floor when the curtains close. Both of these are desecration of the flag of the highest order. It is a slap in the face of all Singaporeans. Alex and Alfan should read "The Man Without a Country" by Edward Hale.

The flag is a national symbol of the highest esteem that we have to respect. How this is done is regulated by the Singapore Arms And Flag And National Anthem Act. The celebration of our National Day brings out the best of Singaporeans to show patriotism by displaying the national flag. There are'nt as many flags out 2021 as compared to prior years. Each year, I observe many Singaporeans are disrespecting the flag, thankfully not intentionally, but out of ignorance. I share my observation and explain why.

First and foremost, a national flag must be flown on a flagpole and in front of premises. It must not be flown at night, unless illuminated. During the period Jul 1st to Sep 30th, it need not be flown on flagpole, and does not need illumination at night.

Here's where folks get it wrong:

The flag is almost touching the floor. It is touching the flower pot. A flag touching the floor is a serious offence. All uniformed personnel understand this very well. At no time during the flag raising or flag lowering must the personnel tasked with the job allow the flag to touch the ground, on pain of a serious charge. The flag is not allowed to touch anything near it. Touching the flower pot soils the flag.

The flag must be hung against a wall. A solid wall prevents fluttering. This flag is hung on an outdoor sun shade, open to physical contact with people passing by.
Flag must never be carried horizontally. The only time this is done is when the flag is drapped over a casket. By not securing a hung flag, it can fly horizontally.

Another example of hung but not secured, allowing the flag to fly horizontally.
Another 'no no' is the close proximity to your laundry of undies.
The breach is only in respect of not backed against a wall. But it is also disrespectful because it is too near the ground, although the law does not have a height metric. It can also be brushed by passers-by, licked or smelled by a dog, and heaven forbid, rubbed by the garbage trash cart.
This is typical of a gated residence. Why not have the flag on a pole, secure the pole to the gate, and the flag can fly proudly.

These flags are against the wall and well strapped. Very good. But there are 2 breaches.
The flags are hung on the side of the premises. They should be hung in front of the premises.
The flags are hung below some advertisement. Flags must be hung above signages.

This is the same breach of not placing the flag above signages.
When this flag flies, it touches the signage. The flag is not allowed to touch anything near it.

These flags are hung like a Japanese curtain.
It is in breach of not hung against a wall, below signages, and touching people passing by.

When 2 flags are flown on the premises, the state flag must be on right (or on the left of the person viewing it.)
The general rule is, the national flag must be prominent. If there are several flags, the national flag must be higher than the rest.

There is no specific breach. However, going by the rule of giving prominence to national flag, it ought to be positioned at the top.

Securing to a wall should be by strapping. Nailing the flag is vandalising it.

This one is a day and night shot. I have a bitty history with this. About 2 years ago, I noted the flag was tattered and torn and the white was sooted and greyed. The owner must have left the flag unattended for years. I emailed the office to bring it to their attention. I'm glad they have apparently replaced with a new flag. I suspect they never hoist and lower the flag daily. The night shot proves it. The flag was flown without illumination. This is allowed only in Jul/Sep, after which it will be in breach. The law does not specify illumination, but I think should be upward directional narrow beam lighting.

I appreciate the folks who bother to display the flag for the national day celebration. But if we want to show patriotism, let's do it right. Let's give utmost respect to our national flag. Please be guided and correct your errors if necessary and your friends'.



Tuesday, August 3, 2021

THREE WISE MEN OF MAS - THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE ....ROGUE?

"As the water shapes itself to the vessel that contains it, a wise man should adapt himself to circumstances" ... Confucius

JY Pillay headed MAS from 1985 to 1989. I had seen Pillay up close on only one occasion. It was some banking symposium at the DBS auditorium. Boy, was I in for the surprise of my life. Pillay was such a disappointing public speaker. I was seated between two foreign western bankers. They were uncomfortable and I was embarassed. Perhaps Pillay just was'nt top notch on the podium. He has been lauded a brilliant manager and shrewd real estate investor who picked up pre-war properties, going where the brave, or un-informed, dared not go. Pillay is a loyal consumate civil servant, who, according to LKY, is "equal to the best brains in America". Apart from MAS, Pillay has helmed big public entities like SGX, SIA, DBS, and GIC. The highlight of his MAS tenure was the stock exchange crisis of Pan Electric which resulted in some players going to jail and some left untouched. Pillay is well respected in the establishment and the awardee of the Temasek Star, the highest honour for a civil servant.

The late Michael Wong Pakshong was the first Managing Director of the MAS. He was an esteemed central banker from 1971 to 1981 who steered our monetary policy through those tumultuous times of the breaking up of Bretton Woods Agreement. He had an aura of the impeccable English gentleman and a presence. Wong, together with his chief manager Elizabeth Sam, was a very well-regarded central banker team in the banking community.

In late 70s, Joshua B Jeyaratnam insinuated that approval of a banking licence to Tat Lee Bank was iniquitous. After a failed attempt, Tat Lee eventually received a banking licence. JBJ had claimed that Lee Kim Yew, the Prime Minister's brother, was roped in as a shareholder and director to bolster the application. JBJ was sued for libel by the government. The plaintiff's case rested on the banking licence being granted prior to Lee becoming a subscriber and director of the bank. The date of the application was pivotal and Wong was called to give evidence. I remember this very well. Wong's evidence dropped some jaws of those who were attentive to the details, including mine. Wong basically affirmed B's claim that the re-application was dated after Lee Kim Yew joined Tat Lee. It almost threw the case into jeopardy for plaintiffs. I had predicted it was bye-bye Wong after the trial.

Not too long later. Wong took the brunt of the accusation of mismanaging MAS by massive over- hiring. He was removed and Deputy PM, Dr Goh Keng Swee, stepped in to rationalise the organisation structure. Dr Goh trimmed headcount drastically. This event is etched in my memory by the works of the one and only Singapore political cartoonist, Morgan Chua, from the Far Eastern Economic Review. Who can forget his caricature of Dr Goh in the quintessential OO7 James Bond pose, arms crossed and pistol at the cheek, and the caption DR GOHFINGER. For those in the know, the circumstances for the 'over-hiring' was in preparation for the merger of MAS and the Currency Board. A merger that was put on the back burner and eventually consumed in 2002.

Current MAS MD Ravi Menon has been vocal lately on some local hotbed issues. He has commented on issues very much outside the purview of monetary policy matters. Ricemedia has made a nice summary of the points Ravi has brought up. You can read about them in this article by Ivan Wu :
The key controversial points Ravi discussed (the italics are Ravi's position, the comments are mine):

1. Meritocracy is at risk of becoming heritable.
This is Ravi's gentle way of saying what we all have known all along. Meritocracy has embedded a ruling elite class. There is an incestious relationship of this elite class in all facet of life on our little island. In government, in licensing or regulatory authorities, judiciary, grass roots, GLCs, etc. Conflict of interest situations are everywhere. This has resulted in economic capture and inequitable opportunities and wealth distribution.

2. Discontinue depending on cheap foreign labour and depress wage levels.  
I interpret this as a criticism of CECA, unless anyone can convince me otherwise. Ravi shares the ordinary Singaporeans' experience of massive job displacement and suppressed wage levels.

3. A higher wage does not mean loss of Singapore competitiveness.
Ravi is right that a highly digital and service-oriented economy can compete with a higher labour cost. Whilst policy focus is moving Singapore head on into the digital world, the government's model is to build it on the back of cheap labour. We can't have our cake and eat it too.

4. Ravi is pro-wealth tax.
Real estate valuation has been a major cause for growing wealth gap in Singapore. Ravi shares the view that some form of wealth tax is necessary to lower the wealth inequality. Some forms of property gains and inheritance taxes may be required. Well, we all know millionaire parliamentarians will all wake up and protest with legacy warnings of capital and talent flight hurting the economy and loss of jobs. Wealth tax is always a good option, just don't take mine.

5. Some form of minimum wage is necessary.
The government has rejected minimum wage and adopted the progressive wage model. Minimum wage has always been rejected in a free economy which prefers market forces to determine the level. However, this is frustrated by the non-protection from entry of foreign cheap labour. Progressive wage is a nanny-state model to be implemented by various sectors. In theory sounds nice, in reality is a cobweb for abuses and non-compliances. My view is stop the CECA free flow of cheap labour and market forces will find its equilibrium for wage levels.

6. Ravi suggested some form of unemployment benefits or insurance.
Of course Singapore government always frowns on such socialist policies as counter-productive. This is actually one social umbrella Singapore lacks in comparison to other advanced economies. I think a few months cover is good for the specific situation for loss of job due to redundancy or company closures.

It does seem Ravi's voice is bold and in consonance with many progressive minds all over the world. Here is a representative for the Singapore Proletariat. Yet what Ravi expounded above are nothing extraordinary. They are narratives of many ordinary Singaporeans and opposition members. Many influencers who have spoken out on these matters have been criticised as promoting destructive pathways for our economy. What will the Bolsheviks think of an internal criticism by a very pro-establishment personality?   

Ravi has been very careful to make it known his views are personal and not official central bank thinking. He certainly needed to make it known it is a non-political articulation. Has he ruffled some feathers? That is obvious. The first indication that the ground has soured for him will be when some underlings in the echo chamber of parliament revisits the issues and dumb down his contrarian views. Are there progressives within the cabinet who share his views? If there are, we have not heard from them. That this has'nt happened could be the management of the pandemic has priorities at the moment. It does not signal that the emperor is happy with a challenge of ideas. The traditionalist clique within the ruling party are still very much alive. Ravi may have to watch his back for the ghost of GOHFINGER.