TRUMP OR HARRIS - UNDERSTANDING THE MAN AND HIS TARIFF WAR

Recently, Temasek’s Chief Investment Officer Rohit Sipahimalani sat down for an interview of which Bloomberg splashed this headline. In my earlier blog 22 Sep 2024 I opined the position of Singapore Inc as regards who it prefers to see in the White House. Rohit simply confirmed my assessment of which camp our local elites are in. Although it is in the nature of an investment discussion to talk of scenarios of economic outcomes under the presidential wannabees, this close into the extremely acrimonious US 2024 Presidential Election, Rohit's public statement is rather concerning. Note how Bloomberg carried the news as a Temasek announcement. As a well-respected sovereign wealth fund, Temasek's views carry weight. If this were a nuanced attack by Bloomberg, too bad the Harris Campaign Team is too dumb to capitalise on it.

Russia is now pursuing Alphabet, the parent of Google, to pay fines for blocking pro-Russia channels on Youtube. The fines have now accrued to about US$20 decillion, that is 20 + another 33 '0' behind it. Meanwhile, Trump sued CBS News for US$10 billion for election interference in their deceptive doctoring of the Harris' interview in their popular "60 Minutes" programme. CBS had admitted to an act that some thought warrants a severe punishment, even a withdrawal of licence, by the regulatory body. But under the Biden admin, liberals and anti-Trump entities can literary get away with murder. Russia and Trump's pursuits are unlikely to be realised in full satisfaction. That however, is the least of the intent. Those who can see the bigger picture, understands the whole purpose is to put in constant public consciousness the extent of the lies of a captured media.

In a recent Trump rally, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke on Puerta Rico's floating island of garbage. The media was quick to propagate all criticisms of Trump calling Puerto Ricans garbage. The reality was Trump said nothing of the sort, and neither did the comedian. It was just a joke about a well-known fact of the garbage situation in Puerto Rico. Hinchcliffe is a controversial comedian. Comedians do what comedians do. Unlike Beyonce, paid to appear at a Harris rally, but she was a singer who didn't sing, a bait and switch that infuriated the crowd who came to watch her performance. Unfortunately, for Hinchcliffe, this for him must surely be a career-ending act as far as engagement in political events is concerned. 

Trump's locker-room talk of "grabbing them by the p....." was certainly disrespectful but blown absolutely out of proportion by media. It was one single moment of reckless boast of manliness which to many, in their mind, has come to be the basis to judge Trump's morality, oblivious to the totality of the full complexity of his life and actions. In psychology this is called the "fundamental attribution error" which is a cognitive attribution bias, often caused by character assasination, and in the case of Trump, the media has done a fantastic job. This fundamental attribution error is probably on display in Singapore as it relates to Lee Hsien Loong regarding the house at 38 Oxley Road

For far too many, Trump is a misogynist. Yet those who bear this view, and the press, have nothing to say about Joe Biden creeping up behind and smelling women in public. Neither have they anything to say to Mark Cuban, the liberal billionaire, who condemned women supporters of Trump as lacking strength and intelligence. Nor have they anything to say about how ex-Democrat Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul Pelosi, battered his ex-girlfriend.  

A CIA whistleblower has now revealed that in 2016, FBI director James Comey, an avid Trump-hater, planted two female agents in Trump's campaign team to conduct honey pot traps. The attempt at entrapment was a failure for conservatives are built on stronger moral fibres. The media is absolutely silent on this. And they too are silent on honey pot success of Fang Fang, a Chinese CCP agent who had entrapped Democrat Congressman Eric Sawell.  Life was easy for a Democrat in a Democrat-controlled Congress. Sawell sat on the House Intelligence Committee and remain seated even after his amorous adventure was made public. 

Tim Walz, Kamala Harris' VP pick, has now been outed for a very long affair with the daughter of a CCP agent in the US. This would have ended his career in the government immediately, but he is still Harris' running mate. And the media is abolutely fine with it.

Trump held a massively successful rally at the world famous Madison Square Garden, a huge indoor arena where all sorts of events  have been held. Tickets for that rally sold out within 3 hours. New York is fiercely liberal and actively antagonistic towards conservatives in general and Trump in particular. It is a place where no one is placing their money on a GOP winner. Trump went into the Lion's den, a fiery display of his courage. In pre-WWII days, American Nazi youths held a rally there once to preach support for Hitler's Germany. For that reason, Democrats and media went to town to holler Trump is a Nazi and Hitler fan. If media were to say Hitler drank water, Trump drinks water, proves he is a fan of Hitler, many would have believed. Media does not show there were many Jews at the rally, and the only signs of Hitler was a group of Democrat activists outside the areana holding up placards with the Swastika sign. Never will media say Trump has a Jewish son-in-law and his daughter embraced Judaism.

In Revelation 2.13 John of Patmos wrote about where Satan dwells. It is in the Temple of Pergamon (present day Turkey). From its archaeological ruins, the Altar of Pergamon was shifted to Berlin and reconstructed in a special museum. In Nuremberg, architect Albert Speer once constructed a platform designed after the Altar of Pergammon. It was on this platform that Hitler made so many of his fiery hate speeches.  In 2008, for his nomination speech, Barrack Obama stood on a platform that was modeled on the Altar of Pergamon, following the footsteps of Hitler. (I blogged about this in Story behind the story behind the story 7 Sep 2019.) You got yourself a heck of a Hitler fan there. The media does not speak about this, but for holding a rally in MSG, Trump is a Hitler fan. 

I picked on some of the stories to show media capture by the liberals to draw caveat to what is now a general consensus - mainstream media cannot be trusted. These are just tip of the iceberg, yet majority of people are consistently consuming media lies as matter of fact. Most of the comments I see from Singapore elites seem to me to be coloured by the same media bias.

What is most confounding to me is the often alluding to Trump as erratic and Harris as establishment type politician, a bastion of consistency. It takes a man with a bigger vision to see how hopelessly inappropriate this assessment of Trump is. No less than our reverent ex-Foreign Minister  George Yeo, a man Lee Kuan Yew once credited as a visionary, who said for all the media hyped negativities, there is one thing to be said of Trump, and that is, he has been consistent in his core policy stands for years. As a matter of fact, for decades. The same cannot be true of Harris, who has been flip-flopping, and making a mess of where she stands on many issues. The one consistency of Harris is she is for abortion up to full term. The fact that Singapore elites cannot see through this fundamental difference is worisome.

Trump is one of those larger-than-life seemingly chaotic personality, often creating iconic moments in history. His famous descent down the escalator at Trump Tower on June 16, 2015, is one such memorable moment people often refer to. It was when he announced his candidacy, delivering a speech that set the tone for his campaign with strong, populist themes and controversial statements, including remarks about immigration. Most people are coloured by perception rather than deep understanding, and the biased media has a lot to do with this.  How much does an ordinary guy know about Trump? Let's be frank, ask yourself. The truth is, absolutely nothing other than what you see and hear. Most people perceives him as “like a bull in a china shop,” making a noisy entrance, upending the environment, and unsettling others with their intense energy. Think of him as brash, heedless of others’ responses, and unfiltered in expressing opinions or frustrations. He dominates the room, causing both fascination and disturbance in equal measure. The proletariat probably sees him as Gargantuar, the cartoon character from the Plants vs. Zombies video game series. He is that large, muscular zombie who carries a huge club and smashes everything in his way. He is all brute force, sheer power and destruction. The bourgeois may see echoes of the literary character Gargantua from Gargantua and Pantagruel, a 16th century work by François Rabelais .

Is it just me or do you too sense it too. We are living in a time, at least in Western-influenced part of the world, where there is a normalisation of wrong as right, and right is wrong. Media and progressive neo-liberalism has a lot to do with this. For all the pomposity thrashed onto Trump, we seemed to have the most peaceful four years in modern history of the world during his presidency. The unthinkable almost happened as the Abraham Accord that he pushed brought Middle East countries and Israel towards peaceful co-existence, the crazy man of the East, Kim Jong Un, simmered down and no North Korean rockets were fired towards Japan. President Xi sat down with Trump to thrash out their economic differences. Afghanistan war was finally over. Trump has been right on many things he said, including that seemingly offensive point on immigration he made in 2015. Look at the chaos, violent crimes and illegal drugs has brough to western countries with open borders.

I confess I shared the same opinion of Trump like most people back in 2015. However, his work in the White House made me do a double take and reassessment. I saw he delivered on many campaign promises. I saw through the lies of media and his political enemies. I saw the unconstitutional acts of leadership in government agencies and judiciary work against him. His accomplishments were significant given that much of his term was spent fighting the lies of the Democrats in pushing two impeachments against him, and appointees who were working against his mission. Here is a man who can work under unimaginable stress and make good on his promises. In this election, he is proving once again that capability to strive under intense pressure. No known presidential candidate ever has to face the kind of intensity of not just political opposition, but pure hate, and risk his life, in pursuit of a mission, as he mentioned in an interview some 40 years ago, to do better for his countrymen.   

That intelligent people cannot peel back the layers of Trump the showman to the core of his substance is a measure of the observer's emotion clouding critical thought. Take for example his latest gimmick of working in McDonalds and his press conference sitting in a garbage dumpster truck, with him complete in the famous French Fry apron and garbage collector's vest. His critics and stoic Singaporean elites no doubt see buffonery in action, but marketeers see a master class act that scored both ways -- endearing Trump to the working class and rebuffing his opposition to the extent they have no response. It was of course a mockery of Harris' claims that she once worked in McDonalds which was a lie to embellish her fictitious middle class upbringing, and a skit on Tony Hinchcliffe's faux pas comic line of Puerto Rico's island of garbage. 

Now back to some of the economic commentaries.

Rohit Sipahimalani:
“I know the conventional wisdom and consensus is that right now a Trump presidency is better for markets.... A Trump win is probably going to mean a stronger dollar and higher rates than you would otherwise have in a Harris administration ......  But as you look out to 2025, the picture is not that clear.... A slowdown in global growth would also have a direct impact on US-listed firms given that 25 per cent of revenues at S&P 500 companies come from outside the country,"

A stronger dollar means a better economy, with pressure on inflation and thus higher interest rates. Rohit seems to mean America is better off economically with a Trump presidency. You do notice where Bloomberg bias is.

Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University’s Public Policy and Global Affairs division :
“While Trump may inject greater uncertainty and unpredictability, a Harris presidency will not and cannot suddenly engender stability, peace and predictability”

That seems to me like a bunch of typical word salad from Harris.

Lee Hsien Loong, ex-PM, Singapore:
"A second Trump term would likely spell more disruptions for American allies and other countries. In particular, I think, what you can anticipate is that his attitude towards allies, towards America’s friends, will be different from what the Democrat administration has done in these last four years,” .

Say what you like, LHL has visions far ahead of the pack. This is an important point of his observation. But then again, as I pointed out, if one has been able to see the substance of Trump, he has been consistent in this. He has made it very clear America will no longer be the sucker to bear disproportionately heavier financial burdens for various funding responsibilities, be it for global security, contributions to intranational agencies like UN and WHO, more particularly for those which have shown no loyalty to the interests of the US. He intends to be transactional. Medicant countries cannot expect to receive with their hands from Uncle Sam and kick him with their legs.   

The problem of trade tariffs:

This has been the core sticking issue of Singapore Inc as regards Trump.

Rohit:
"The tariffs are going to create uncertainty, which is never good for investment and actually I think it’ll be negative not just for emerging markets but across the world .....(it would) impact global growth”.

Tan See Seng, research adviser at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies 

“If Trump wins, he is likely to reconvene another trade war with China. If that leads to China doubling down on its ongoing effort to ‘decouple’ its economy from the US, Singapore’s economy will be affected but it’s unclear at this point exactly how so.” 

Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary of Singapore’s foreign ministry:

"If Trump were to carry out his promise to levy tariffs on all imports to promote American manufacturing, it would slow the world economy."

Lee Hsien Loong warned that if Trump were to slap tariffs of 60 per cent or higher on Chinese goods in his second term as promised, it would put Singapore in “uncharted territory”.

The contrarian says:

The downside of tariffs as expressed above comes out of standard economic text books. In most scenarios, tariffs lead to inefficiencies and resource misallocation. Higher import costs typically reduce overall consumer welfare, raise production costs, and can lead to retaliation from trade partners, which disrupts global supply chains. This generally results in less optimal resource utilization and may harm long-term economic growth by discouraging trade and investment.

However, a directed tariff can provide limited economic benefits, such as protecting certain domestic industries from foreign competition, potentially saving local jobs or encouraging the growth of emerging sectors

There have been many write ups, videos, and commentaries, presented sometimes in racist overtones, and more than often, aa a middle to the Orange Mop, for Trump's Tariff War I which they viewed as failures. Trump's tariffs on Chinese products was followed by a retaliation on American agricultural products. Which was to be expected. This resulted in the US spending billions on subsidies to help the farmers, the funds of course, came from the revenue collected from the higher tariffs. Of course no one can really work out the mathematics and say the winner is .... Again, the perception is Trump had his nose rubbed.

But here I stand alone and say, the winner of Trump Tariff War I is the whole world. The fundamental point overlooked by everyone is Trump's objective and did he achieve it. 

China's great leap in economic growth after opening up to the world was due primarily to it being a cheap manufacturing base. (Let's leave aside other issues of technology transfer, intellectual property theft and political stability). As its economy matures, China stuck to its monetary policy of pegging the renmenbi to US$. The fixed rate kept the yuan cheap and made China the factory to the world. This is an unfair trade practice that manifested in huge balance of payments for China. The massive forex reserves accumulated propelled China Investment Corporation to the second largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with US$1.4 trillion assets under management. This is a situation that Singapore Inc knows too well with its GIC experience. The situation is untenable as no country in the world, not just the US, will be able to compete on an unfair basis against the sheer size of the Chinese economy. 

Tariff War I was about China's unfair trade practices and bringing them to heel. That was Trump's objective. And did he succeed? A resounding YES. The Bank of China gradually allowed the Renmenbi to appreciate. Today, the Renmenbi is maintained on a managed float basis, more or less similar to what the Monetary Authority of Singapore is doing. The Chinese currency is now more or less in line with market expectation of where it should be. Had it not been for Trump's initiative, all factories in the rest of the world would have to shut their doors. 

I remember an incident back in pre-Tariff War I days. I was invited to quote for supply of a few thousand Corbusier sofas and 3-seaters for a grand international event to be held in Singapore. I submitted the lowest limbo-rock low prices possible, hopping to make on volumes. The winner was a guy from China, which was not surprising. What surprised me was their price which was just 25% of my lowest offer. Considering they had to factor in shipping cost, it was simply an impossible price. That in a nutshell, is what unfair trade practice does to competitors.

Trump's Tariff War II has a fundamentally different objective whcih the commentaries above seem to have missed the point. The tariff is to hit hard on American companies that shut down their US plant and either domicle it offshore in countries such as China, India, Vietnam. Mexico etc or simply outsourced from overseas. The objective of Tariff War II is primarily to force American companings to bring their manufacturing jobs back home to the US. Whatever one feels about Trump, that is what a leader has to do for his country.

As Ho Ching once said, Temasek can afford to hold contrarian views. Rohit is with the herd. I stand with Ho Ching here. Give me a tariff war any time over a nuclear war. A Harris win is taking a chance on a nuclear war in Europe. A Trump win is giving peace a chance. Trump's tariff may cause the decoupling of economies and re-alignment of supply chains. It will be unsettling for some but opportunities for others. But the world and Singapore will navigate it, however the outcome. Certainly a better scenario than a nuclear war. 

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