LET'S HAVE GRATITUDE FOR THE LADS WHO DISPOSED THE BOMB

The WWII relic bomb was found buried several metres deep at a construction site at Upper Bukit Timah Road. Experts identified it as Japanese type 94 100 kg aerial bomb. The SAF has successfully managed a controlled detonation.

The detonation was handled by the EOD (explosives ordnance disposal) unit which operates under the 36th Battalion, Singapore Combat Engineers.That the controlled detonation went so well made the whole exercise seem so nondescript, an anti-climax. So much so that I have seen some disparaging comments online. Make no mistake, our boys in green put their lives at risk that day. Diffusing or detonating unexploded bombs is an extremely hazardous task, more so with old relics buried in the ground for years. No one knows how the change in temperature may affect the mechanisms and chemicals,. Jarring can set the bomb off. Those few young men who carried the bomb to the detonation pit may seem like matter-of-fact from a distance, but I bet their heart beats were racing crazy. What makes soldiers do dangerous tasks when called upon? Training and discipline. They deserve respect and gratitude, doing jobs no one else will do to keep us save.

My regular readers know I like to personalise my blog with first hand experiences whenever I can. During my fulltime national service days back in 1970 or 71, my company was involved in helping to recover a few hundred WWII bombs from the swamps somewhere in Jurong. We were working in knee or thigh-deep mud, depending on how tall one was. We had to use bare hands blindly into the mud and pull out the bombs and pass them along a human chain. No one told us anything except don't worry, it's safe. By safe I take it as these were unused bombs which are different from duds. Unused bombs are safe in that detonating mechanisms have not been triggered. Duds are bombs which have been used but somehow failed to detonate which makes them dangerous, such as the one found at Upper Timah. Though they were supposedly unused, the fact they were relics and buried in cool mud for 35 years, who can vouch for its safety with certainty? There was another peculiar observation. The bombs had a tiny hole drilled by the side. I have no idea why there were drill holes. What was frightening was in many cases, some smoke were emitting from the holes. Some said the bombs have been diffused and safe. But I say given a choice I would run a kilometer away from a bomb with smoke emitting from it, and so would you. My knowledge was weak, but looking back, I think those were artillery shells. Anyway, our task was thankfully cut short by the rising tide. Water level in a swamp rises very fast so we had to move quickly to solid ground or drown in the mud.

The first time Japan bombed Singapore was on night of  8 Dec 1941. Two squadrons flew out from their base in Indo-China. Fortunately, bad weather forced one squadron of 37 planes to abort mission or damage would have been worse. This first raid showed up the ineptness of the British. Against the better judgement of his commanders, General Percival refused to scramble fighter jets as he felt some may be shot by friendly fire in the darkness.  Next they could not find the personnel with the key to the power stations to switch off street lights. The Japanese squadrons split into 2 groups. One flew safely above 14,000 feet to draw anti-aircraft fire while the other at 4,000 feet to bomb on fully lighted up Seletar and Tengah airbases and CBD. The British fell for the decoy and not a single plane was shot down.

Not all unexploded bombs from WWII are Japanese. The US bombed Japanese-occupied Singapore 11 times in 1944 and 1945.



A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

AGE OF TECHNOPHOBIA

A couple of weeks ago I sat down for high tea with a few old friends and met new ones. It was an informal get together chatting on anything under the sun. The conversation wandered into technology, touching on autonomous vehicles, AI, robotics and others. On autonomous vehicles, I brought up the hypothetical scenario of four vehicles arriving at exactly the same time at a cross-road junction with no traffic lights. Who has right of way? 

This involves algorithm decision making for conflict resolution at intersections. The vehicles process information acquired via communication and artificial vision. Essential data includes the position, speeds, and turning intentions of the cars. If the vehicles are all going straight, absence a vehicle making a turning signal, the algorithms crash.

This scenario is hypothetical but it does underline the suggestion a 100% autonomous vehicle world is impossible. Lacking human faculty of judgement, vehicular algorithms will fail in many other conflict resolutions. On the other hand, in a mixed human-driven and self-drive vehicle world, with different basis of judgement and decision making, would conflict resolution be easier or more difficult?  

A recent incident in US city Austin, Texas,  serves as a timely illustration. A robotaxi company, Cruise, operates a fleet of self-driving Chevrolet Bolts. Twelve of these taxis were at an intersection near the University of Texas. A football game had ended and crowd and cars were pouring out. Algorithms were unable to process such stochastic conflict resolution situation and a massive traffic jam ensued. (Video below)

Our learned professor friend brought up the idea of taking Chat AI to its logical conclusion. Chat AI basically regurgitates the gargantuan information it amassed from licensed data, or data fed to it by the tech owners, or culled from the public domain. As the good professor pointed out, Chat AI is actively utilised all over the world. It churns out massive contents which in turn feeds into its own knowledge base. Very soon, Chat AI will be self-authenticating its own information.

I once had a running argument with someone on Facebook. Every point he countered, I had an adequate response. Finally he came back with a very eloquent comment. I had to unload on him not to hide behind Chat AI. You see, after some time, it is quite easy to spot Chat AI content. Its predictability may well be its downfall. Well the FB gentleman stopped the conversation after that.

Robotic technology is advancing at fast speed, with Japan leading the way. Last year Elon Musk unveiled his 'Optimus' robot on Tesla's AI Day. It was impressive, but as far as dexterity and robotic 'brain' are concerned, it is still a long way to go.

Many people has seen this video below and must have gasped at the advancement in technology, some probably with fear or apprehension.  Take a look - 20 sec video

Astounding dexterity and real time processing capability in stochastic events, isn't it?. We cannot trust what we see any more. Unless you have a sense of where the technology is at, you won't know the truth. Watch the video below.

A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

SLA SHOT ITSELF IN THE FOOT RE RIDOUTGATE VS KATONG TERRACE HOUSES

HUMILITY, honesty, hardworker bees, the best of the best, in Whites we trust,
RIDOUTGATE will be hyped, the major lift the minor fall and nothing but wind gust.

That’s the last stanza of Ballad Of Ridoutgate, my poem in my blog on Ridoutgate saga, 26 May 2023. With great humility, I quite like it. If you like to check it out, click here

True to form the wind came and blew out through the windows of Parliament House in July. CPIB has investigated, chummy senior minister has investigated, parliament has discussed, tears shed. Nothing to see here. Everything was done aboveboard. The public and parliamentarians alike were lost in a clusterfuck of discombobulated facts and figures.

What the ministers spent, what they added, how much were previous rents, comparative rental rates, how long untenanted, all these are irrelevant. Occam's Razor - when something is too complicated, take the most simplistic view. All one needs to understand is this:

26 Ridout Road
Minister Shan’s bid was $24,500, which was exactly equal to guide rent, what a coincidence. SLA then spent S$515,400 on restoration works. SLA spent another S$172,000 to chop the trees, replant, and put up fencing on an adjacent piece of land. As the land was incorporated into 26 Ridout Road, Shan’s rent was increased by $2,000 to $26,500 to recoup the additional cost.

31 Ridout Road
Minister Balakrishnan’s bid was S$19,000, which exceeded the S$18,800 guide rent. SLA then spent S$570,500 on restoration.

I was terribly surprised two ex-senior counsels in Parliament were unable to see the clarity that this nobody blogger was able to perceive. In my 1 July 2023 blog on Ridoutgate I wrote:

“Had the essential works been carried out before the ministers' bids, would more bids be received from the public and at much better prices? One never knows, and therein lies the ministers' benefits and protests of unfair treatment.”

Now compare to the government terrace houses at Katong, also managed by SLA. These properties have been refurbished and now available for rent.

Prior to being upgraded, the units fetched rents of between S$2,500 and S$3,200. Open bidding transactions after upgrading have been reported between S$5,300 and S$6,800. The increase in rates is more than 100%.

Previous tenants had to vacate for refurbishment. These returning tenants are given lower rates starting at S$4,500 for middle units and S$4,800 for corner units.

It’s a no brainer rental rates of old houses improve significantly after refurbishment or restoration.

The black-and-white bungalows at 26 and 31 Ridout Road should have been restored first and then opened for bidding. Who knows, just like Katong terrace houses, the rents could be 100% more than what the two ministers bid.

SLA followed common sense business practice for the Katong heritage terrace houses. Refurbish first, improve product value offering, then let out at higher prices. For 26 and 31 Ridout Road, the ministers bidded for old bungalow houses, but received fully restored ones. If that is still difficult to understand, the ministers paid for some old junk but took delivery of something new. The government is so out of touch with reality they think Singaporeans are too stupid to see through the farce. All those who still think no advantages were offered to the ministers ought to go Woodbridge for a brain scan. 


A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

THIS SOB FACEBOOK A/C OWNER TRIED TO SCAM ME, AND OTHER SCAMS

I am careful when adding FB friend requests from ladies but less so with males. With “Puay” I sort of let my guard down seeing a male with a proper name and photo. In most cases I do a quick check of the profile. This of course is not fool proof. The first red flag of a new FB friendship is upon connecting, you receive a text via messenger. FB isn’t a penpal platform for goodness sake. But of course there are always the genuine ones who send a one-off message to say thanks for accepting the request. In my case, quite a few dropped me a note to say they enjoyed my blog and gave encouragements.

Lottery scams

Puay is unlikely a real name. I googled and found only the FB account. He does not exist anywhere else online. I had his photo reverse image searched and found nothing.

On connection, Puay sent me a message and told me he had wanted to reach me for a while as he had something to share. My immediate reaction was to block him out. Not really curious about him, but I thought heck, I'll see what's new in scam world. So I gave curt responses. I said "OK."

There were long time gaps in his replies so I think he is probably from another time zone, or to impress he was not hounding me as most con artists tend to do. He asked have I heard of Facebook Lotto? It's FB's new lucky draw. He said winners names are on a list. He had won about $200,000 (he had deleted old messages and I can't recall the exact sums). He had collected his winnings. Said he saw my name on the list and I had won $300,000. Would I be interested, he asked. He would have a friend contact me. I replied "NO".

Nevertheless he sent me this link to FB Lotto account. On second thought, this may be a Filipino con, "Lotto" is a Filipino lottery. I waited 2 days then sent him a text. "Thank you very much. I collected $1,500,000. It's only fair I present you with a reward of $150,000. Please let me know what is your bank and account number." He never came back.

In most lottery scams, victims are asked to make a small fee payment following which his winnings will be transferred. Like real.

Old Nigerian scams

I first became aware of Nigerian scams when LAN email emerged in 1980s. Yessiree, many of the scams seen today have been around for 40+ years,  some with slight variations, others still running the same old scripts. When I was working in a bank, I used to receive these scam emails with a regularity of once a week. Back then they seek out victims amongst higher officials. Somebody somewhere must be selling contact lists then, as they do today. The common plot is some ministers or generals, or some British dignitaries, died tragically. He left behind huge bank balances (understood to be corruptly acquired) to a certain beneficiary who has also perished or cannot be found. As the beneficiary has the same surname as you, the lawyer can quietly insert your name as next of kin. All they needed was your legit bank account so they can move the funds out. Upon receipt of funds you round trip to the plotter's account their share of the illicit funds. There is no risk, right? And we were talking like US$10m, a colossal amount back then. I wondered where was the kicker. How does the scam work. So I responded once. Ah so I needed to open a local bank account. Would I please send a small initial deposit and they will set it up for me. US$5,000 for millions, not a bad chance to take, right? So I relied "Will arrange shortly". I have kept a Nigerian scammer waiting for 40+ years.

What amazed me were 2 incidents. One was a businessman friend called me excitedly to tell me of a "lobang" of small money for huge returns. He had received a somewhat similar Nigerian email and was really excited. I brought him back down to Earth. I was perturbed that a smart young businessman could for one second fall for this sort of nonsense. The other incident was something I read in the press of the experience of 2 Malaysians. They had received same email and thinking it was exclusive, took a flight out to Abuja. Their Nigerian hosts entertained them and took them to a hotel. There in the hotel room, relieved of passports, they were forced to wire over from Malaysia about US$30,000.  Two punny Malaysians towered over by five 200 pounder black giants in a foreign hotel room, there wasn't much option. 

Honey pots

Where do they all come from? Most I think are from China, at least as far as the profile photos suggest. We can more or less identify Chinese lasses from PRC. They are distinguishable from Chinese girls from Taiwan, HK or Asean countries. PRC Chinese girls like to display the impish allure look and studio quality photos. Some of these girls are outright upfront in sexy pose. Once friend request is accepted, here comes the messages and the flesh sales. Reject. Reject. Reject.

Jobs galore

These are all over the place - Facebook, Whatsapp, Telegram, Messenger. They are basically out to hassle some registration fees, some perhaps to impress their principals by padding their enquiries numbers (Aka state media and inflated circulation figures), some with darker intent to obtain private info, or worse, to hijack your device. Again, it's obvious someone is selling Whatsapp and Telegram numbers. If from Facebook or Messenger, they will have an associate to get in touch with you on Whatsapp. Run. Run. Run.

University Birmingham

I have loss count of the number of Chinese lasses purportedly alumni of this university who sent me friend requests. They message me immediately upon connection and started asking personal questions. Since I am authentic, I have much info already displayed in my FB profile. Their questions were redundant. I sense some trickery is afoot but wonder why the fixation with Uni Birmingham. I have since avoided any friend request from alumnus of this uni.

Notwithstanding the risks of scams, the internet is free and online connectivity has its thrills and spills. Have fun, be vigilant and no need to be paranoia over security.



A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

WHAT ARE YOUR VALUES IN LIFE?

Two recent online posts made me pause to really reflect on them. One was Tan Kim Lian’s blog on the 5 values that guided him in his life journey. The other was a Facebook post by lawyer Michael Han on “How will you measure your life?”

TKL listed his 5 priority values as honesty, fairness, being positive, courage, and public service. There is no right or wrong. We are all molded differently and have different priorities. This is not a blog out to criticise TKL. I am just using TKL to kick start my thoughts on the matter.

Values are a person’s belief systems, a basketful of attitudes, principles, ideals that govern how he conducts himself, manifested in his behavior, choices of priorities and decision making. Values maketh a person's character and moral fibres. What he is, comes from Nature and Nurture.

Qualities from Nature are innate. It is in the person's DNA and unchanging. Do the stars at our birth have anything to do with this? Western zodiac stars and Chinese zodiac animals do surprisingly predetermine some characteristic qualities in a person.

Exogenous factors that nurture or influence a person are upbringing, culture, religion, school, friends, influencers, personal life experiences, etc.

Value systems are thus never deterministic. They evolve as a person’s world view changes and his risk-rewards dynamics changes. Innate qualities are however, difficult to change. Parents play extremely critical roles as value systems are better imbibed at very young age. This parental duty is discharged either in the form of direct instructions or by being role models.

What are these value? Though there are many and varied values, they can generally be watered down to a few in terms of most people's priorities. These are some of them:

Loyalty, Honour, Courage, Compassion, Kindness, Generosity, Considerate, Selfless, Community-minded, Justice, Perseverance, Knowledge, Power, Stability, Security, Status, Wealth, Health, Happiness, Growth, Face, Recognition, Respect, Integrity, Honesty, Love, Gratitude, Forgiveness, Selfless, Responsibility, Humility, etc.

You may have your own to add, but these would be the most commonly listed. Some of these over-lap.

To make it easier to appreciate the wide array, psychologists categorise values into 2 types:

(a) Instrumental values or desirable ways to act or behave, e.g. kind and generous.
(b) Terminal values or end states, ie outcomes desired of or actions, eg more power, more wealth, healthier, etc.

Schwartz categorised values into 4 groups in his circular model above, namely (a) Self-enhancement, (b) Openness to change, (c) Self-transcendence, and (d) Conservation.

Knowing your own values are important as you get to understand why you act the way you acted. Being aware of another person’s values are equally if not more importantly because we can fairly predict his reactions to events or stimulus.

There are often times when values clash. For example, an honest guy forced to take bribes in order to obtain badly needed cash for medical expenses. Or a clear-headed educated guy who knows the dangers of untested vaccines get the jabs anyway in order to visit malls or stay in his job.

Dissonance occurs when there is a clash of values. Possible consequences are guilt-ridden, frustration, damnation, tension, depression, sometimes suicidal, etc. To return to balance and sanity, some choose to re-align their values, mostly in the manner of lowering one’s value in personal standards.

So what are your values? List your pick of priorities.

Having mentioned Kin Lian, I need to be upfront and list my own top values - Justice, Compassion, Loyalty, Consideration for others, and Inquisitiveness.

Justice is my innate value, the albatross I hang around my neck given at birth under the Libra stars. This is a value that has gotten me into trouble and made me put myself at risks. It overlaps with Kin Lian’s ‘Courage’. Kin Lian talks of the courage to speak up and do the right things. I feel my ‘Justice’ is a bit deeper than ‘Courage’. It encompasses action to seek redress as well. In my younger days I once had my fortunes told. Over a table with fleeting smoke of burning joss-sticks, the wise one told me he saw some dark hatred in my heart and that’s what was pulling me down. I thought it was hogwash as I consider myself a dreamer, a harmless pacifist who love life, nature, people. In later years I realised that incidents of injustices, however far removed from me, pricked at my heart. It pained me much even though they have nothing to do with me. I believe that was the darkness the fortune teller saw. This ‘Justice” thing shape my thoughts and actions from important to mundane ordinary events. For example, I tend to buy stuff from poor looking vendors rather than a successful looking guy. In social events I avoid the crowd puller, you know the attention seeker or the power-endowed personality who has such magnetic pull that everyone wants some of the glitter to rub off on them. I tend to gyrate to those the crowd abandons, the down-trodden, the disadvantaged. the underdogs, the bullied, the dis-enfranchised. Guess I sucked at networking which I see as selling one’s soul to further one’s path towards financial freedom.

Compassion is more than empathy. It connotes action. One does not show care and concern by words alone, but act on it. I feel compassion is one defining value that sets humans apart from other animals. If a person has no compassion, he can’t qualify as a human being. This value was ingrained into me by the attitudes of my parents and our Buddhist heritage. We were once as poor as church mice, but I witnessed close up how my parents have never ever denied anyone who turned up asking for food. No matter how poor one is, there are always others in worse plight. I have always held the view money is not a sin. The desire to seek financial success is not a sin. It is what one does with the money that measures a man. Two shining examples are Keannu Reeves and Chow Yen Fatt.

Loyalty is something that is very old school. I sense the younger generation tends to downplay this. Loyalty can be in varied context – loyalty to family, friends, to ideals and principles, to relationships, employers, a cause, etc. All these loyalties have a conflict eventuality. Would you lie for a family member in a criminal case? Would you still work for the employer who sustains your livelihood if you discovered he was defrauding customers? Blind loyalty is a misplaced loyalty which unfortunately, is prevalent. The kind of loyalty I am referring to is loyalty to motherland. The state is amoral so there can be no value conflict eventuality. One has to be loyal to the motherland, there is no option. For me, I think this idea of loyalty is ingrained culturally since birth. As a tiny tot in a Chinese family growing up in Singapore, I was exposed to tales my parents told, or listening to chit chats of village folks. Chinese folklores are strongly grounded on themes of loyalty. And so I drank from the cup of brotherhood of Romance Of The Three Kingdoms, or stories of General  Yuefei (岳飞), or Journey To The West.

Consideration for others. Again this is something I picked up young. No one sat down to give me a lesson on the ABCs of living in harmony with others. I think if one has consideration for others, it goes naturally, to an extension of appreciation for nature. As to consideration for nature, I give credit to my scout master for raising my awareness. Would you believe I once bought a house and unconsciously factored in one of the points was abundant parking spaces for my visitors. In the scheme of things, I bet consideration for others probably ranks last for most people's priorities. Yet this is the single value capable of bringing harmony in an overcrowded competitive society.

I call the 5th value Inquisitiveness. Others may call it Knowledge. Some may say curiosity kills the cat. Many have told me why I bother with this or that, it does not bring bread to the table. Indeed, other than skill sets necessary for employment, the vast world of knowledge has no application or benefits personally. Intellectual discourse is dead in Singapore, that's my perception. To each his own. I am not encouraging anyone to join the Dead Poets Society. Rather I am simply lamenting the disinterest or lack of curiosity to exercise the faculty to explore or question. Humanity progressed only because man have the innate curiosity over things they see and experience, and they exercise their God-given capacity to reason things out, something other animals cannot do. Socrates said “The unexamined life is not worth living”. If you understand this, you understand what I mean. If you don’t understand and don’t bother to find out what Socrates meant, then you are exactly what he was describing.

I come to Michael Han’s interesting post “How will you measure your life?”

Will you consider your time here on Earth is a success because you conducted yourself with ‘terminal values’ having quantifiable outcomes which you achieved admirably. You have 10 properties, several businesses which set your family up comfortably and you secured a good life and future for your children? Or will you consider yourself a success because you have lived a life true to the values you carried with you throughout your life?

I round off with a religious message.

Values are internal codes we live by. To guide us, God gave Mosses the Ten Commandments. In his time, Mosses re-codified to micro levels about 600 prohibitions and positive commands. King David encapsulated them into eleven commands in Psalm 15. Isaiah further summarized them to six (33:14-15); Micah bound them into three (6:8).

To make things absolutely easy for us, Habakkuk, one of the lesser prophets, condensed everything to one. He taught “The righteous shall live by faith” (2.4).

Whatever you do, live a righteous life, my friends. 

A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

ME, PUTIN VS KISHORE, GEORGE YEO & TOMMY KOH

It is good to have elder statesmen, or retired entrepreneurs and top civil servants, who will speak out from time to time on various important issues of the day. In a world which is getting uglier and confusing, their inputs can certainly help us to process what the heck is going on, provide succor or reassurance, and warnings.

We have maverick Phillip Yeo talking of top notch scholars in civil service who are merely paper chasers, a reference, I think, for the need of the government’s entrenched meritocracy ideology to be able to separate the chaff from the wheat. Top civil servant Ngiam Tong Dow differentiated first generation leaders as ‘grass-roots based’ and today’s PAP as ‘elitist’. Ngiam said: “When you raise ministers' salaries to the point that they're earning millions of dollar(s), every minister — no matter how much he wants to turn up and tell (PM Lee) Hsien Loong off or whatever — will hesitate when he thinks of his million-dollar salary," It’s the moral hazard that all Singaporeans know, but coming from our top civil servant is really hitting the nail on the head.

It is in the arena of geopolitics that has existential amplifcation. As crucial as it is in today’s highly connected world, with instant communication and insidious misinformation and disinformation, it has such a mult-dimensional facet requiring vast knowledge in disciplines like history, geography, economics, finance, psychology, domestic and regional politics, the military, and much much more, where having just a star in political science does not quite cut it. It requires a special breed of people called “thinkers” to be able to discern developments going on in the world around us.

From Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew of course, was undeniably such a man. There may be many others, but of those that have spoken out, I know of only 3, namely Kishore Mahbubani, George Yeo and Prof Tommy Koh.

Kishore has a more independent mind and I perceive he has stepped on some toes of late articulating some sensitive views. From Kishore came the warning that we should be wary of the ‘warring culture” of EU. It’s a stinging rebuke of Singapore’s position on the Russo-Ukraine conflict and how to handle the China-Taiwan dispute.

George was specifically pointed out by LKY as a ‘thinker’. Being the diplomat that he had been, no less a Foreign Minister, George has been able to air his views, sometimes controversial, in a palatable manner. His latest comment on Donald Trump is an example. He has shown he does not succumb to mainstream media, taking a view on Trump that would have got him canceled, yet parlayed in a manner that seemed non-partisan. I was very pleased his comment on Trump resonates with mine which hasn’t won me many friends, but it’s good to have George on my side.

As for Tommy, I like him for a nice fella, but disappointed in some of his thoughts on geopolitics. He mostly toes mainstream media lines and lacks the punching insights of Kishore. For example, he wrote the article in 2020 “US Presidential Election – A Quest For Understanding". It sounded so CNN or MSNBC that I felt compelled to write a critique of Tommy Koh’s blog. Check out his article and my criticism and you will understand what I mean.

In the recently concluded Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, President Putin was asked for his views on the coming US 2024 elections. You can check this at about 1.48 timeline. He had some interesting observations none of which Kishore, George or Tommy has ever touched on. One particular point I want to highlight is Putin said what’s going on in US is political persecution of Trump, and that to him is good. Because it shows the political corruption of the American system and reveals who we are dealing with.

I bring up this comment of Putin to underline a point I made in my blog in October 2022.

Read my blog about the genesis of cultural change in US : “Cancel Culture - Who Let The Dogs Out, Does Temasek Have A Hand In This, And Thank Goodness For Trump”

The point that I made is the advent of Trump in 2016 frustrated the final swing of America to communism, an agenda plotted after WWII and marvellously brought to the brink by Obama, the Manchurian Candidate. Identity politics of Obama caused the divisiveness in US and now conveniently blamed on Trump’s brashness. Typical Democrat use of Communist tactic to blame the opponent for problems they themselves created. My point, which as far as I know, has never been proposed by anyone else up to now, is the arrival of Trump forced the Democrats to turbo speed their socialism agenda at a time when the US demographics are not yet ready. Liberals form only 25% of the population. The progressive Left has majority only in the cities, not the rural belts. In their all-out hatred and opposition of Trump, they are all forced to come out of the dark shadows. The Devils are now in the open.

Only Putin and I have made this point that the political prosecution of Trump is good because it exposes the Devils to the world.



A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

OLAM’S US$50B FRAUD IN NIGERIA FALSE OR AUDITORS, SPORE HQ BLUR?

On Friday 8 Sep 2023, The Daily Nigerian reported an exclusive on State Security Services (SSS) investigating a massive US$50b economic fraud involving Olam Nigeria Limited, Olam International and their nine subsidiaries.

The Daily Nigerian:

“In a chain of round-tripping foreign exchange deals since 2015, the company, through its Special Purpose Vehicles, SPVs, had booked about $34 billion with the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, as capital importation at official rates.

But instead of investing the money into the Nigerian economy, sources said the company round-tripped the forex and sold to business men, especially oil and gas marketers and industries such Indorama and Fouani, at parallel market rates.”

This news have been peddled around online in Nigeria and it seems The Daily Nigerian is the single original source. Today Sep 11 Olam Group Singapore has spoken out. It refuted the report as fake news, that there was no investigation of their operation in Nigeria, that Olam Nigeria never has the huge turnover anywhere near US$50b.

Everyone has got it wrong – The Daily Nigerian, Olam Singapore, and just about everyone who has pushed the story. SSS was not investigating Olam Nigeria. It was investigating CBN.

Is it possible Olam Nigeria’s infraction came to light in the course of the investigation into the central bank? And is it possible there is fraudulent implication on Olam in a manner their auditor and Singapore HQ is unable to detect? To explore this possibility, we have to understand what is The Daily Nigerian claim of ‘round tripping’ all about.

Godwin Emefiele took office of Governor of CBN in June 2014. USD/NGN was relatively stable from 2009 to Oct 2014 at about 160s level. With decline in oil revenues, Nigerian naira had been under pressure for years. Under Godwin Emefiele, CBN’s effort to shore up the naira had depleted the country’s foreign reserves, brought on high inflation and deficit trade balances. Nigeria had to deal with a massive foreign currency liquidity problem. CBN resorted to hotchpot brew of monetary policies that bordered on FX controls in one form or another. One of Godwin’s initiative was to have exporters price their products in foreign currencies designed to increase inflow of hard cash.

Unfortunately, as is often the case with capital controls, a dual system soon evolved – an official interbank rate controlled by the central bank and a black market rate. CBN maintained stability by keeping the rate within a secretive wide band resulting in rising interest rates. Lack of liquidity soon widened the rate disparities between interbank and black market rates. At some point, the difference could be has high as 100%. It was a situation ripe for the financially creative movers and shakers. If one can buy foreign currencies from interbank and sell in the black market, massive FX profits are possible.

Olam Nigeria Plc was set up in 1989 in London by the Indian Kewalram Chanrai Group. It was originally meant to export non-oil based products of Nigeria to amass hard currency earnings to meet the foreign exchange requirements of the group’s other operations in Nigeria. Soon Olam’s agri-business and commodities trading itself became a huge success story and moved way beyond it’s original mission.

With Nigerian products priced in foreign currencies, exporters like Olam bring in much needed hard currencies into the Nigerian banking system thus helping to provide liquidity to meet importers’ needs. That was the basic idea. Exporters convert the foreign currencies at official rates from banks and obtain nairas for their local needs.

Instead of selling at the interbank FX market, if exporters can sell in the black market at much higher rates, substantial gains can be made. Capital control involves substantial form filing, registration, permits  and reporting. Exporters have no choice but sell their foreign currencies interbank and receive nairas at official rates, in accordance with FX control regulations. Now, with collaboration of CBN and commercial bank personnel, arrangements could be made for the bank to sell back to controlled shell entities which can then sell in the black market and make huge gains. This is the ‘round tripping’ The Daily Nigerian was referring to. Under such a scheme, Olam Nigeria would have received nairas at the official rate and auditors would be none the wiser as all proceeds would be accounted for. The sell back by bank to shell companies involved no one within Olam thus would have gone unnoticed. The exchange profits would be massive enough to split amongst the collaborators including the controlled shell entities. Olam Singapore has denied having any “network of shell companies”. But what if Olam Singapore HQ is not privy to the scheme, they would remain as blissfully unaware as the auditors.

I am not saying that actually happened, but certainly is not to be discounted. All FX capital control are inefficient systems which sooner or latter is subject to exploitation.

Is there any evidence of such shenanigans going on? Yes indeed. Central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele was under investigation by SSS in 2022 for terrorism funding. By Dec 2022 SSS was unable to indict Emefiele for terrorism funding. That investigation had placed the entire central bank’s operations and activities of its top officials under intense scrutiny. A CBN staff member Mrs Sa'adatu Ramallan Yaro have been charged for various corrupt acts including money laundering. Her account at a Zenith bank has been identified as a conduit for moving illegal funds. She has been charged together with Emefiele for corrupt procurement contracts. She is the wife of Alhaji Aminu Yaro, leader of Hausa tribe of Lagos, who is a long time good friend of Emefiele. There are reports of Nigeria’s anti-corruption body, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, having uncovered massive bank balances in Mrs Yaro’s accounts that are conduits for FX differential fraud facilitated by Emefiele who has been suspended and under arrest on 9 June. It seems Mrs Yaro is Emefiele’s bagman in FX differential fraud schemes.

The investigation into CBN is a big deal as Nigeria is the largest African economy, and 30th in the world. Whilst it as been all quiet on the Eastern Front with denials of wrong doing by Olam Singapore, the arrest of the CBN Governor and the decision by the new government to put the naira on free float in June saw the Nigerian currency collapse from 461 to 820 to the USD within a week. The black market rate is currently about 940 to the dollar.

President Bola Tinubu, who came to office on 29 May 2023, inherited an economic mess. Tinubu came with a good reputation as a competent Governor of Lagos state from 1999 – 2007. He has advised his countrymen they need to bite the bullet as he implements painful reforms and anti-corruption drives.

Are Tinubu’s acts politically driven? Even if it isn’t, his political foes will claim it is. As it is, the arrest of tribal leader Yaro is already on dangerous grounds. Emefiele himself had political ambitions and had joined the party of the preceding President Muhammadu Buhari. There is in fact some suggestion that rumours of Tinubu having amassed a warehouse full of cash for the 2023 elections motivated Emefiele to take CBN on a failed attempt to implement Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) called e-naira, concurrently with a new currency. The demonetization attempt failed and had the same consequences as India’s Modi infamy. Only 40% of the population had mobile phones killed the idea of a cashless economy before it even started. Very little new currencies were printed in anticipation of a cashless economy led to the demonetisation project causing financial turmoil as people had no access to cash. It caused great hardship and riots in banks and streets. As a consequence Emeciele faced charges of economic terrorism. President Buhari distanced himself from Emeciele and SSS started investigations into CBN. Throughout all the problems, IMF and WEF prodded Emeciele with the CBDC project. The globalists would have loved Nigeria’s CBDC to propel the whole of Africa to go cashless.

Singapore Trade Development Board enticed Olam to relocate from London to Singapore in 1996. Olam International Limited was incorporated in Singapore on 4 July 1995 as a public limited company for this purpose. The sweetener was a concessionary tax rate of 10%, further reduced to 5% in 2004.

Olam Group is headquartered in Singapore and listed on the SGX. Temasek once had 80% controlling ownership but has divested down to current 54%. The infractions went back to 2015 when Ho Ching held responsibility over Temasek.

It does not seem this latest massive fraud case has been processed by investors in Singapore up to this point. The market is in fact in high expectations of the US$1b Olam’s agri-unit IPO some time early 2024. Will the collapse of the Nigerian Naira bear down on the IPO or will investment gurus still put out buy advices.


A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.

THE REAL REASON SINGAPORE HIDES ITS RESERVES IN PLAIN SIGHT

The title is an oxymoron but appropriate. In the previous blog I presented evidence and empirical support the argument Sing dollar can never be attacked by currency speculators. This suggests the government's constant reminder for secrecy of the size of the reserves is to protect SGD from currency speculators is a fallacy. If so, what then is the real reason for the secrecy. Here I explain what is the only logical reason for the secrecy and the idiosyncrasy that whilst adamant at the official stand, the reserves are in plain sight all along.

The 4 Truths about Reserves:

(1) What are reserves : (19 Aug 2023) To Find Out How Much Is The Reserves You First Must Know What It Is..

(2)What is the size of our national reserves: (22 Aug 2023) Singapore Reserves Revealed - Unlike CNA Videos This Is For Real. 

(3)The lie about need to keep reserves a secret: (28 Aug 2023) Keep reserves secret to protect SGD is a fallacy - SGD cannot be attacked. 

(4) An oxymoron reality :(1 Sep 2023) The real reason Singapore hides its reserves in plain sight.

In 1925 after Britain returned to gold backing for pound sterling, there followed a period of exchange rate stability. But what the public didn’t know was it still required Bank Of England intervention to maintain parity. Fixed rate is a misnomer. All currencies whose rate is fixed, or pegged to another currency, or metals, require central bank market intervention to maintain parity. We saw this in the examples of currency attacks in the previous blog. BOE market intervention was conducted with utmost secrecy less the market, if aware of its actions, would counteract its moves.

Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1932 and pound sterling began experiencing high volatility. BOE needed a pool of foreign currencies readily available to be tapped to buy up GBP whenever it came under selling pressure. It then created the Exchange Equalisation Account with funds pulled from public savings elsewhere, ie reserves. This was the start of what is now known as ‘foreign reserves’. The operation of the EEA was conducted under extreme secrecy.

1930s was a time of recession in the West. All counties wanted to booster exports which expands economic activity and employment. BOE kept GBP rate down so British goods were cheaper and exports boosted. It is not a zero-sum game. BOE intervention caused USD to rise which affects American exports. In 1933 US depreciated the dollar. Then in 1934 US started its own reserves fund called Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). What followed was competitive depreciation done in stealth as each country tried to undervalue its currency. This caused distrust and strained Anglo-American relations deeply.

But it was the French that suffered most as the Franc appreciated substantially against both GBP and USD. To put a stop to the race to the bottom, Britain, US and France agreed to negotiate. A strong Franc caused unemployment and social unrest, putting France at risk to a rising Nazi Germany. That gave impetus to the signing of the Tripartite Agreement in 1936. It was a triumph for multilateralism, a watershed in monetary history where countries agreed on a framework predicated on cooperation to restore order in international economic relations. They agreed not to fix exchange rates by intervention, but instead seek greater stability and use exchange funds to this end.

The purpose for this backdrop is to show fixing exchange rates done in secrecy is held in disdain and mistrust by trading partners. It is an unfair trade practice that can strain relations and invite retaliation. The US collects economics intel and have in the past accused several countries of unfair trade practices by manipulating the exchange rate, keeping currency under-valued to boost exports. The US-China tariff war was a consequence.

Singapore has always responded to accusation of currency manipulation on the ground SGD is free float and central bank intervention is only to smoothen out daily liquidity driven volatility. But it is hard to be convincing when foreign reserves keep piling up. It means MAS keeps pressing the rate down, means keep Sing Dollar under-valued. This is something Critical Spectator and his IBS googo gaga followers cannot comprehend. They think massive increase in MAS foreign reserves is good, it means Singapore is making lots of profits. When finally realising it is not profits, maybe as a consequence of me who kept punching at his error, the Polish blogger later twisted it to contend well, with increased foreign reserves means MAS can transfer more to GIC to earn more investment income. Oblivious to increased FX and interest rate exposures from an increase in OFR, CS had nothing to say to the SGD30b loss by MAS last year. With blinders on and brainwashed minds, CS and his horde cannot, and even worse, refuse, to see the downside of a massive foreign reserve presents the government with a challenge. How to fool prying eyes.

One way for recalcitrant countries to go under the radar is to keep bloated foreign reserves out of view and not to reveal market intervention statistics. Singapore has honed this skill well.

The MAS resisted reporting market intervention statistics for decades. Under much pressure, it finally started to report market intervention about 3 years ago in line with all central banks. Why was Singapore reluctant to file this report? Well, if market intervention was to smoothen daily volatility, as claimed, statistics will show somewhat even buy and sell interventions. If it is predominantly intervention to sell SGD, that is the smoking gun of manipulation to under-value the currency. Now that MAS is complying on the reporting, well and good. Not implying anything, but it’s ownself report ownself.

The massive size of official foreign reserves in MAS books is open to scrutiny. It needs to be funneled out. MAS has squirreled out billions to be booked in GIC. Officially, these are foreign reserves in excess of the needs of MAS which were transferred to GIC to invest in better yielding assets. In the past, such transfers were done when the balances in government’s account at MAS accumulated to a sizable amount in access of its immediate needs. These accumulation came from proceeds of government securities and land sales, and budget surplus. The foreign reserves were building up much faster than the excess funds in the government's account at MAS. A new mechanism had to be devised. This came in the form of Reserves Management Government Securities. These RMGS are non-tradeable SGD-denominated securities subscribed by MAS and settled in foreign currencies. It’s a mechanism that allowed MAS to easily bulk transfer massive foreign currencies to GIC starting in 2022.

Stop. Take a deep breath. What did I just say? The government hides foreign reserves size to avoid scrutiny and accusation of currency manipulation. My earlier blogs and video on this topic are fact based. This one is just my opinion but the circumstances as I described, can only lead to the conclusion I arrived.

Now having transferred excess foreign reserves to GIC, it became incumbent to further block the books of the sovereign wealth fund from prying eyes. A detailed analysis of statutory audited accounts of GIC may permit a re-engineering to determine the actual size of foreign reserves built up by MAS in the past to current times. By blocking out GIC, it has also made it impossible to determine the size of our national reserves as I showed in my earlier blog the 2nd Truth.

Now here is the crazy part that is best prefaced with a Shakespearean quote:

‘Oh what a tangled web we weave / When first we practice to deceive’

Does anyone notice when the subject of secrecy of reserves comes up, officials discombobulate the matter by avoiding the specifics. It’s always “we keep the reserves secret to keep currency speculators away”. This is where the rubber meets the road. What reserves are they talking about? The foreign reserves or the national reserves?

The national reserves is what’s in the public accounts that belong to the public, we the people. The public entities are government, MAS, Temasek, GIC and all statutory boards. The net assets in all these entities make up the national reserves which belong to us.

Foreign reserves are a class of assets in MAS collectively called Official Foreign Reserves (OFR) of a country. These are very liquid foreign assets such as cash balances or securities. Traditionally these came from a country’s foreign savings, earnings or surpluses which are set aside to provide the liquidity needed to enable importation of goods during a currency crisis. Countries keep enough foreign currencies to support 2 or 3 months of import needs. To this extent, OFR is part of national reserves because it came from savings. Our initial OFR held by the Currency Board was certainly part of national reserves because it came from savings. The question here is, is the massive OFR today in MAS’s books of about SGD450b national reserves? And the answer is no. MAS equity is now just SGD34b (SGD50b share capital less negative general reserves of SGD16n). The massive OFR did not come from savings, but debt.

So why does it matter for officials to specify which reserves they mean when talking about secrecy in order to protect the SGD? Because its a discombobulation that’s been going on for years and no one has the gumption to tell these scholars off. You have 2 bullets of truth depending on which reserves they mean.

If they mean national reserves, then it is a fallacy. Because in a currency attack, the size of the country’s national reserves mean nothing. They are illiquid assets. What is needed during a currency war are foreign currency bank balances and securities that can be liquidated immediately and converted to cash. Britain lost on 16 Sep 1992 Black Wednesday when their foreign reserves ran out. But they still had vast wealth in their oil and gas fields, ports and wharfs, military bases all over the world, etc. Likewise, in an attack on SGD, the portfolios of GIC and Temasek mean nothing. Liquidity is the ace in these poker games, not wealth.

If by reserves they mean the OFR with MAS, then the scholars got it right. In a speculative attack on SGD, only the OFR matters. That is the war chest MAS relies on to fight currency speculators. However, if they say we need to keep the size of foreign reserves a secret, then we have a case of scholarly nincompoops or outright liars. The reason is because MAS foreign reserves are in plain sight all along. MAS publishes the OFR balances on its website which is updated monthly. The latest as at 31 July 2023 is SGD452,504,800,000.

Conclusion

Singaporeans have been bamboozled with this secrecy narrative far too long.

If they mean to hide the size of national reserves from currency speculators, they got it wrong. Illiquid assets of national reserves is not part of the war chest of MAS. Hiding it makes no sense.

If they mean hide the Official Foreign Reserves of MAS, then they are ridiculously out of touch because MAS foreign reserves have always been in plain sight.

The circumstances suggest the real reason for moving excess OFR out to GIC is to avoid scrutiny of the size of the OFR in MAS which attracts accusation of currency manipulation. RMGS is a good device to facilitate the transfer of OFR out, but it does not hide the trail because RMGS remains in MAS books but not under the foreign reserves line. MAS website shows as at 31 July 2023, OFR is SGD452,504,800,000, RMGS is SGD237,600,000,000. Any idiot will know MAS had acquired foreign reserves up to at lease SGD690,04,800,000 +++ billions transferred in prior years without trail.

There are those who suggest the secrecy narrative provides the excuse to block publication of audited statutory financial statements of GIC to cover massive removal or loss of national reserves. This is going into the realm of contra-factual, something I avoid, except just to say historically, secrecy in officialdom seldom offer a happy outcome for the public.



A parting shout out :

Plato said:
“The price good men pay for indifference to public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.”
If you like what you read here and feel it matters Singaporeans know stuff like this, please click and share with your social circle. This makes my effort worthwhile.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.