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Monday, October 28, 2024

THE MYSTERY OF THE ARK OF THE COVENANT AND SINWAR'S DEATH



The replica Ark of the Covenant at Beth Shemesh
“When you’re doing something good and you’re finding that you’re making progress in an unexpected way, you almost know that you’re operating in line with the goodness and the essence of the Creator,”
Lewis Topper
Lewis Topper is a US philantropist who commissioned the project to construct a replica of the Ark of the Covenant. The project took three and a half years and involved 17 professionals, artisans and craftsmen from various countries. The design process involved historical and architectural research to reflect the Ark's ancient craftsmanship. Detailed descriptions of its construction can be found in the Old Testsament. To achieve a high level of authenticity, materials and construction techniques of ancient Egypt of the time were used as far as possible. These included a donation of 23.75-carat Egyptian gold, Egyptian acacia wood, special fabric for its lining, the ancient dye colours, and more. There was great attention to symbolic details, scoured from layers of scriptural and rabbinic teachings. It was not a simple project of building a physical contraption. The infusion of authentic details gave the replica profound meaning, of great reverence to the divine.

The project faced many construction, engineering and architectural challenges. The Ark was carried into battle so its original construction was obviously very robust.  The project actually had a "proof of concept", an initial model created to test the feasibility and functionality of a design which was a low-cost plywood prototype built to explore structural elements and how well it could be carried and supported without breaking or warping. This initial model allowed the team to test joint strength, durability, and carrying stability for long periods, particularly given the absence of modern fasteners in the final design.

The Ark of the Covenant was constructed at Mt Sinai before the Isrealites started out on their 40-year wanderings and before Moses received the Laws of God. At the same time, under God's direction, Moses ordered the construction of the Tabernacle. It was in effect a mobile tentage so that the Israelites could carry it along during their wanderings. The Tabernacle had an inner sanctuary known as the "Holy of Holies" which was where God resided amongst the Israelites. The Ark rested in this sanctuary and was considered the seat of God. The Tablets of the Ten Commandments and other religious effects were thought to be kept in the Ark. The Ark was some sort of communication chanel where God spoke to Moses, the divine voice flowing through between the two cherubims on the top of the Ark. No one was allowed to enter the Holy of Holies except the chief priest once a year and after some purification process.

Each time the Israelites carried the Ark of the Covenant into battle or moved it forward during their journey, Moses recited a prayer invoking God’s protection and presence. (Numbers 10:35):
“Rise up, O Lord! May Your enemies be scattered; may Your foes flee before You.”
And when the Ark came to rest, he would say:
“Return, O Lord, to the countless thousands of Israel.”
This prayer reflects the belief that God’s presence, symbolized by the Ark, would lead and protect them against their enemies. It was both a declaration of trust in God’s guidance and a call for divine intervention on behalf of Israel in times of conflict or transition

After the Israelites entered the Promised Land, the Tabernacle and the Ark rested for the next 369 years in Shiloh, their religious centre. It was later moved to the City of David and eventually housed in Solomon's Temple. In AD 72 the Romans destroyed the Second Temple and the Ark disappeared from history.

The replica Ark was completed recently and unveiled in New York City in June this year, organised by the Israel Heritage Foundation. It was delivered to Israel this October and went on a tour to places where the original Ark had once rested in ancient times. It went to Shiloh, Jerico (where the original Ark had circled the city wall seven times before the walls collapsed), Temple Mount, Palace of David in the City of David, and finally Beth Shemesh. 

Beth Shemesh is an oddity and was a miracle of the Ark mentioned in 1 Samuels 4-7. In a battle against the Philistines at Ebenezer, the Israelites were soundly beaten and the Ark was captured by the enemy. The Philistines took the Ark as a spoil of war.
The Philistines were a grouping of 5 city states known as Pentapolis. The Ark was first brought to Ashdod and placed in the Temple of Dagon, the God of the City. The day following the receipt of the Ark, the statute of Dagong was mysteriously destroyed. A plague befell on the city. Residents were inflicted with boils (called tumors) and the city infested by rats. Ashdod passed on the Ark to the next city. The five city states of Ashdod, Asklelon, Gaza, Gath and Ekron took turns to host the Ark and the same plague and rat infestation manifested. After seven months of suffering, and well aware of the stories of the power of the God if Israel in Egypt, the Philistines decided to return the Ark together with appeasement offerings of gold pieces, five in the shape of tumors and five as rats.

The Ark and the golden tumors and rats were placed in a cart pulled by two cows that have never been yoked (ie never been trained to carrying loads, pulling plows, or working under human control). In ancient practices, an animal that had not been yoked was considered pure, untouched by work, and therefore fitting for specific religious rituals or offerings. The fact that the cows were untrained also highlighted the difficulty of their task, as they were less likely to follow directions or walk in a straight path. The Philistines saw this as a test. If the untrained cows went straight toward Israelite territory, it would be a sign that the calamities they were suffering from were indeed due to their possession of the Ark. The cows’ journey without deviation was taken as a divine sign that the Ark’s presence had caused the troubles they experienced. Indeed the cows moved to the Israelite city of Beth Shemesh.

As for the replica, something extraordinary happened when it was placed at the archaelogical site of Shiloh on October 16. After a ceremony and the officiating rabbi had uttered Moses' prayer "May Your enemies be scattered; may Your foes flee before You", within the next minute, the death of the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, occured. For years, Israeli Defence Force had no intelligence on the whereabouts of Sinwar. He was never specifically targetted because his location was unknown. Sinwar was caught in a chance encounter and the IDF had no idea during the fire fight that Sinwar was in the building. 

Was the killing of Sinwar providential and a miracle of the replica Ark, or was it just a coincidence?

In ancient times the Ark of the Covenant was carried into battle. But the Ark itself did not win battles for the Israelites. In biblical days it was a powerful object for chanelling a nation's faith on the Divine that drove the confidence to achieve impossible tasks. It was a unifying force for twelve tribes to prosper as a great nation.

The replica, though built as a symbol, resonates with the same themes of divine presence, strength, and national unity that the Ark represented in ancient times. The Ark symbolizes unity, faith, and spiritual connection and holds deep cultural and religious significance for both Jewish and Christian communities. The Israel Heritage Foundation views it as a representation of shared Judeo-Christian values, aiming to inspire a return to these values in the present-day context. The replica Ark was basically commissioned for a call back to the values that counter the destructive and hedonistic culture of neo-liberalism that has engulfed Western societies. Meanwhile, the homecoming of the replica Ark at a time when Israel is at war with seven enemies has great significance and the IDF seems enthused with renewed vigour and faith, willing to embrace and welcome it into every military installation for its blessings.


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Thursday, October 17, 2024

DOES SCIENCE OR GOD EXPLAIN ORIGIN OF THE UNIVERSE?



"Ex nihilo nihil fit"
Parmenides


"Nothing comes from nothing" is the metaphysical thought that originated from Parmenides, believed to be born about 540BC. Parmenides was a pre-Socrates Greek philosopher generally accepted as the father of ontology. This thought remains the cornerstone of classical and modern physics principle of mass-energy conservation, which states that mass and energy are conserved and can only change forms. They can neither be created nor destroyed.

Law of Conservation of Mass  as proposed by Antoine Lavoisier in 18th century, states that the total mass in a chemical reaction remains constant. It is not created nor destroyed in chemical processes.

A similar Law on Conservation of Energy was developed in the 18th century by various scientists that states energy can neither be created nor destroyed, only converted from one form to another (e.g., chemical energy to kinetic energy).

Then in 1905 came Albert Einstein's famous equation E = mc².  This is the Law of Mass-Energy Equivalence which basically says that mass and energy are two forms of the same thing. Mass can be converted into energy and vice versa. For example, in nuclear reactions, a small amount of mass is converted into a large amount of energy. This does not violate the conservation laws because the total amount of mass and energy is still conserved.

What these conservation laws of mass and energy say is, in a closed system, mass and energy remain constant, though they can change forms through many physical processes, such as chemical reactions, nuclear processes, and thermodynamics, and they can neither get into nor escape from the system. So the question that needs to be answered is where do all the matter that form the universe come from? The fundamental concept in both philosophy and science is the principle of causality which states that every effect has a cause. So what caused the universe to come into being?

The theistic explaination is of course God is the Creator of the Universe. Atheists and those who swear by science and laugh at dogmas, would have none of this, and so the search for an empirical causality. I have to say, like most people, I have no theological, philosophical nor scientific understanding on the matter. The creation of the universe is one of those deep questions that fixated my curiosity in my teen years. I wasn't sold on the Genesis story and I was weak in physics to try to wrap around the science, particularly in those days before internet access to info was not that easy. But there was something that piqued me from a very young age into adult life and that is the idea of infinite space. Imagine taking away all the galazies in the universe, that is, taking away matter, what is left is just empty space. There is no matter, there is nothing, just ... nothingness. What is this thing that is nothing? What is the purpose of nothing? How to describe this? Then in Genesis I see the word, and it is called 'void'.

Here I try to assemble the works of some brilliant scientists, many of whom are men of religion, and see where the search for causality is leading to. Is it towards a material, empirical understanding or towards a metaphysical conclusion of a supernatural beginning of the universe.

Follow me as we go on a journey where we take away matter, space, and time out of the universe, till there is nothing left but a teeny weeny infinitesimal dot of energy.

Up till the early 1920s, the world view was a static universe. The universe has been there all the time and has never changed. There is no point in discussing its origin. Physicists Fred Hoyle, Thomas Gold, and Hermann Bondi in 1948 proposed the Stasis Concept or Steady-State Model which states the universe is infinite in both time and space, meaning it has no beginning and no end. Individual stars or galaxies may change, but the overall structure and density of the universe remain constant.

Sir Isaac Newton

With the publication of "Principla" in 1687, Newton established the Law of Universal Gravitation. All bodies in the universe have mass and attract each other. Between two bodies, the one with the bigger mass pulls the smaller body to it. The force is inversely proportional to the distance between them to the power of 2 (F=1/d2). That is, if the distance is increased by 2 times, the force is decreased by 4 times, if distance decreases by 3 times, force is increased by 9 times etc. This gravitational force is proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. It can be computed using a constant (G) multiplied by the sum of the mass of the 2 objects divided by the distance between the 2 objects squared.  This force is expressed as :
F = G × m1 × m2 / r2
Newton computed the gravitational force of Earth as g = 9.81 m/s, i.e. 9.81 metres per second squared. 

Prior to Newton, Aristotle (384–322 BC) and Galileo Galilei (1564–1642) had also addressed gravitational force. Aristotle said objects with higher mass falls faster than a lighter one. Galilei said that is true only if there is air resistance. Where there is no resistance, such as in a vacuumn or space, all objects fall at the same speed. This has now been proven in modern day space missions. 

Newton's hypothesis went further than the falling apple. His Law of Universal Gravition extends to all the celestial bodies in space and explains why they are all held together in a stable relationship.

Newton's universal gravity law was the world view for the next 250 years.

Albert Einstein

In 1915 a young Einstein published his General Theory of Relativity and his complex 'field equations'. What does a patent clerk know! No one knew what it was all about at the time. Einstein redefined gravity not as a force, but as a result of the curvature of space-time.

According Einstein, massive objects like planets, stars, and galaxies cause a distortion or bending in the fabric of space-time. He gave a thought experiment of how space can bend.
Imagine in a rocket at rest or ascending at a rate under 9.81m/sec squared and you shine a torchlight against the wall. The ray of light will be straight as normal. But if the rocket accelerates the light will curve slightly. It will need the acceleration to exceed the Earth's gravitation substantially before the curve becomes apparent. What happens is the light is still shining on a straight line but following the curvature of space. Einstein shows the curvature of space and how velocity also has an impact on gravity.

In Euclidean math a straight line is the shortest distance between 2 points. In spherical geometry, a straight line can be a curve. The following illustrates.


Suppose a guy fires a shot with his rifle. The pressure built up in the firing chamber pushes the bullet out and the grooves in the barrel gives it the spin for more speed. The bullet travels on a straight trajectory up to a point when its energy or speed drops and it then takes a parobolic descend to the ground. With a more powerful gun and bullet, the bullet can travel on the straight path much further. Supposing he has a gun and bullet powerful enough to travel 25,000 miles (Earth's circumference), the bullet will have the velocity to curve round the Earth, but its fligth path is still a straight line.

Imagine space is not void but filled with layers upon layers of fabric. Now imagine a two-dimensional view by taking one piece of fabric and stretch it out. If a ball is placed on the fabric, the mass of the ball will cause the fabric to curve under it. All the celestial bodies in the Universe bend the fabric just like the ball. In our galaxy, the Sun is the biggest mass and so it has the greatest impact in bending the fabric.
Just like the bullet that circles the Earth is actually on a straight line, the planets that circle the Sun are also on a straight line. But now, because space is bended, the planets' straight path also bends.

American physicist John Wheeler describes it best : "Matter tells space-time how to curve. Space-time tells matter how to move".

Einstein's law of relativity shows that mass warps space and thus distorts space and time. The law of relativity does not negate Newtonian gravity, it shows that celestial bodies move according to how space is warped.
As the planet moves closer to the Sun by Newtonian gravitational pull, it follows the curve of the space-time warp. It is still on a straight path but is curved.

Planets do not crash into the Sun due to (a) their sideway movement, that is, tangent to the Sun, and (b) their velocity. This results in planets revolving in eliptical paths round the Sun known as orbits.  

The image above is two-dimensional looking at only one layer of imaginery fabric. Space is of course bended in three-dimensional way. Einstein's law of relativity brings space and time together into a new 4-dimensional concept called 'space-time'

To an astrounaut or a satellite far up in the sky, space is not warped. Earth as a huge mass, warps the space around it. Thus the same straight line A-B is shorter in space compared to that on Earth. Speed = Distance/Time, therefore Time = Distance/Speed. As the speed of light does not change, it means there is a time difference between space and Earth due to the curvature of space caused by Earth's mass. 

This curvature of space distorts time. Time is now relative.
1. If both are stationary or moving at same speed, time moves faster for the one with the greater gravitational field. This is called gravitational dilation. Thus time moves faster on Earth than the one in space.
2. Time moves slower for the one that is moving faster. This is velocity dilation. Time for the satellite moves slower because it is orbiting Earth at speeds of 28,000 km/hr, circling the Earth every 90 minutes, compared to Earth that spins on its axis at a speed of 1,670 km/hr. Because of time difference, all those GPS data taken by satellite has to go through some tweaking to sync with Earth-time.
Note : The time difference means astronauts in the space station should age slower in space. But they actually age faster due to health reasons from exposure to mircrogravity and radiation.

What's all these Einstein mumbo jumbo got to do with creation

Let's take a breather. Up till now you must be wondering what has all this got to do with creation of the universe. I will get to that. But since we want to know Science or God? issue, we need to have a grounding in the science, and General Theory of Relativity is key. If this is tough for you, don't worry. You are in good company. It is so complex and even involves another aspect of math called Reimannian Geometry which even Einstein himself could not figure out. Even Einstein had to enlist the help of Swiss Mathematician Marcel Grossman to help him. Eventually, Einstein worked out his Field Equations.

Einstein's law of relativity shows that matter distorts time and space. This has actually been proven correct twice.

First, Newtonian law cannot explain a peculiar problem of Mercury' precession, that is, its motion in it's orbit. The eliptical path of a planet is called its geodesic, and the point where it is nearest to the Sun is called perihelion, the point furthest from the Sun is the aphelion. Newtonian calculations is not able to pinpoint the exact position of Mercury's perhelion. There is a precession error of 43 arcsecond per century. Einstein's Field Equations was able to accurately predict the 43 arcsecond per century precession. Mercury is the closest to the Sun and thus more affected by its gravitional pull. Its geodesic passes through a bigger curvature of the space-time warp near the Sun. Einstein's Field Equations takes into consideration the space-time distortion.

Second. in 1919 Sir Arthur Eddington conducted an observational test on the general theory of relativity.  Large objects bend space-time. That means the light coming from stars far away bends as it passes these large objects. An observer therefore will see the stars not in the exact position they were supposed to be. An analogy is light refraction in water. We see an object in the water which does not appear to be its actual position. Since the Sun is the biggest object, then the distant stars to the rear of the Sun would be seen away from the position thay are supposed to be. But we can't see the stars with the Sun in the sky. Eddington made the observation during a full eclipse of the Sun. And true enough, as predicted by the general theory of relativity, the stars were in slightly different locations.  

Now we come to the gist of the importance of general theory of relativity to the Science or God question. Einstein's field equations are a set of equations that describe how mass and energy influence the curvature of spacetime. The curvature of spacetime, in turn, dictates the motion of objects. The equations relate the distribution of matter and energy to the curvature, forming the foundation of modern gravitational theory. It led to the development of a cosmological model of an expanding universe (Edwin Hubble), the possibilities of black holes - a situation where the space-time curvatures are so extreme that even light cannot escape (Karl Schwarzschild), and singularity- a point where density and gravitational forces are infinite, and the known laws of physics break down  (Penrose, Hawking, Ellis).

Einstein preferred the philosophical idea of a static universe. So he proposed there is an equal countering force to the gravitational pull which he called the "Cosmological Force". He postulated all the parameters and metrics to arrive at the cosmological force. To put it harsely, he cheated, but Stephen Meyer, American scientist and philosopher, puts it more kindly, at the same time it's a dig at Science, that Einstein used some 'fine-tuning' to arrive at the value he wanted. It was not till 1931 that Einstein admitted the cosmological force was his greatest blunder. Here's hoping those with blind faith in science take a leaf.

Redshifting

First, let's understand some basic physics. We see things from the reflection of light from the observed object. Light is made up of a spectrum of colours. When a ray of light passes through a glass prism, it comes out in it's spectral colours which can be observed. Light travels in waveforms, different colours have different wavelengths or frequencies. The colour red has the longest wavelength and blue the shortest.

In 1842 Austrian physicist Christian Doppler hypothesised that the observed frequency of a wave depends on the relative speed of the source and the observer. Specifically, he proposed that the wavelength of light emitted from stars would change depending on their motion relative to Earth, leading to shifts in color. The motion of stars relative to an observer would cause the colors of the stars to change (either toward the blue or red end of the spectrum) based on their velocity relative to the observer. This is called the Doppler Effect.

When the wavelength of light from an object increases in length, it is called redshifting and it means the object emiting the light is moving away from the observer. The object appears more reddish. When the wavelength decreases in length, it is called blueshifting and it means the object is moving towards the observer. The object appears more blueish.

Astronomers use a spectroscopy to measure redshift by analyzing the spectrum of light from an object. The light emitted by stars and galaxies contains specific absorption or emission lines (which correspond to the elements in them). By comparing these lines to the positions they would have in a stationary object, astronomers can calculate the redshift. Redshift is used to estimate the distance to faraway galaxies. The further away a galaxy is, the more its light is redshifted. Astronomers use redshift as a proxy to gauge how far an object is from Earth.

Vesto Melvin Slipher

American astronomer Vesto Melvin Slipher was the first to mention redshifting. In 1912 he was studying Andromeda Galaxy (M31) at a time when all those distant blobs were called nebulae. Today we know they are a million galaxies out there. What he saw was blue shifting, which means Andromeda is moving towards Earth. He later discovered that majority of galaxies are redshifting, moving away from Earth. Slipher, however, did not formulate his discovery into an expanding Universe model.

Edwin Hubble

Edwin Hubble started out as a lawyer for a short while and changed track to be an astronomer. He did his research at Mount Wilson Observatory in California which used the 100-inch Hooker Telescope, the most powerful one at the time. This is not to be confused with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) named after him which was launched into space in 1990 aboard the Space Shuttle Discovery

In 1929, Edwin Hubble made one of the most important contribution to modern astronomy. Building from the knowledge of Einstein's general relativity theory and redshifting, he theorised that distant galaxies are moving away from Earth, he added that their velocities are proportional to their distances. This relationship is now known as Hubble’s Law. From this he built the cosmological model of an expanding Universe.

In 1931 Hubble invited Einstein to the observatory. After being a witness to the observable evidence of redshifting, Einstein finally accepted an expanding universe and that his cosmological force was a mistake.

The Universe has an origin !

Hubble's hypothesis had great implications - in other words, there is a beginning of Time. If the Universe was expanding, how was it before. By back extrapolation, we have a shrinking Universe as we move back in time. Take the analogy of a deflating balloon which gets smaller and smaller. There must be a point when the Universe started its expansion from an origin.

Einstein's field equations show how spacetime curvature is influenced by matter and energy, including in a contracting universe scenario where the spacetime curvature would change accordingly, and this would affect the motion of celestial bodies. Gravitational attraction will pull galaxies, stars, and other objects closer together causing the density of matter in the universe to increase dramatically, potentially leading to large-scale mergers and the collapse of structures. Galaxies could collide and merge on a larger scale. As objects get pulled together, they form like black holes. In turn, black holes, could merge into larger black holes, eventually accumulating more mass as they interact with surrounding matter. This will end in a final event called the Big Crunch where all the matter in the whole universe congeals into one infinite mass called singularity, a point where the curvature of spacetime becomes infinite and the laws of physics as we know them break down.

Einstein’s theories describe how spacetime behaves during the contraction of the universe, but do not fully explain the detailed process of how these bodies merge into a "final mass," particularly as it approaches the singularity.

To sum up for Einstein. His theories and field equations lead science to this tiny infinite dot called singularity. This is a compression of matter, space, and time of the whole universe into energy in one infinite dot. It cannot explain if there is anything pre-singularity because all known laws of physics do not work at this point. Neither can it explain how this dot came into being. Was this the origin of the Universe?
.
The Cosmic Egg

Many ancient civilisations have a story about a sort of cosmic egg which cracked open and gradually formed the universe. These ancient mythologies include:
* The Hindus have the Hiranyagarbha or "golden egg" mentioned in the Rigveda as the source of the universe.
* The Chinese have the story of  Pangu who was born from the cosmic egg where he emerged and separated heaven and earth. 
* The Greeks have the Orphic Egg from which the god Phanes emerged to create the cosmos.

Georges Lemaître

In 1931, Georges Lemaître, a Belgian Catholic priest, physicist, and astronomer, published his hypothesis that the universe originated from a single, incredibly dense point. He called this the Primeval Atom. This cosmic egg exploded at the moment of the creation of the universe. He basically described the 'Big Bang' although he did not call it that way.

Roger Penrose, Stephen Hawking, and George F. R. Ellis

These 3 physicists are known for their significant contributions to solving aspects of Einstein's field equations. Well, actually they didn't directly "solve" Einstein's field equations in the way one might solve a simple equation, but they used them to demonstrate profound implications about the universe's nature, particularly around the formation of singularities and the evolution of space-time. Their work advanced understanding of the origins and structure of the universe by applying general relativity to extreme conditions, such as the formation of black holes and the Big Bang.

In the 1960s and 1970s, Penrose and Hawking worked together to develop what is known as the Penrose-Hawking singularity theorems. These theorems show that, under certain conditions, Einstein's field equations imply the existence of singularities, points in space-time where density becomes infinite, such as at the center of black holes or at the Big Bang.

Penrose initially formulated a singularity theorem for gravitational collapse, showing that black holes form under certain conditions. Hawking extended this work to the entire universe, arguing that the Big Bang itself could be described as a singularity.

George Ellis co-authored with Hawking in 1923 the important work "The Large Scale Structure of Space-Time", which explored the consequences of Einstein's equations on the structure of the universe. Ellis contributed to understanding the global structure of space-time and how it evolves over large scales in the presence of gravitational fields

Hawking's other contribution is his famous prediction that black holes can emit radiation that slowly evaporates. This is known as Hawking radiation.

In 1969 Penrose was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for his work on black holes. Hawking, for all his acclaims and popularity, never received any Nobel Prize. The Nobel Prize in Physics is typically awarded for discoveries that have been experimentally verified. While Hawking's theories were revolutionary, they have not yet been observed directly. Perhaps he may get one for his predictions about black holes emitting radiation.

The Big Bang

We now come to the day itself, the day when time and space started. Unless you are well read on this topic, boy, are you in for a few big surprises.

First surprise, Big Bang actually refers to the singularity as the point when the Universe began. We have seen how a back intrapolation of a contracting universe lead us to a point where all celestial bodies collapse or congeal into one infinite mass. where space, time, mass and energy became a point of infinite density, concentrated in an infinitely dense and hot state and all the laws of physics break down. There was nothing, no space, no time, nothing. As the Bible says, just 'void". And this singularity, which is this infinite dense hot state with no laws of physics. The Big Bang actually refers to this initial singularity suddenly coming into being and began a rapid expansion, not an actual physical explosion. Where did it come from? Science, Einstein's general relativity, quantum mechanics, cannot explain it.

Second surprice, the term Big Bang was coined by Physicist Fred Hoyle in a BBC broadcast in 1949. Actually it was meant in a sarcastic way since Hoyle was a believer of the static universe.

Third surprise, Hawking never described how the Big Bang happened. No one can explain since the laws of physics, including Einstein's general relativity and quantum mechanics, break down at singularity. There must have been some form of instability that caused Quantum fluctuations to occur leading to the conditions for the singularity to expand. Hawking never explained how the initial singularity came into being, nor how the expansion began.

Forth surprise, there was no explosion in the traditional sense of a bomb going off. Think of it as a rapid expansion of energy which formed space-time. After the initial singularity, the universe began to expand. This expansion can be thought of in terms of inflation, a theory proposed to explain the extremely rapid expansion of the universe shortly after the Big Bang. The rapid expansion means that space itself was created during this period, leading to the universe as we observe it today. The energy present at the singularity was transformed into matter and radiation as the universe expanded. According to Einstein’s equation E = mc², energy can be converted into matter, allowing for the creation of particles as the universe cooled. As the universe expanded, it transitioned from a hot, dense state into a cooler environment, allowing for the formation of subatomic particles, atoms, and eventually galaxies.

Signature of the Big Bang

Most scientists believe in the Big Bang Theory as there is a compelling body of evidence that supports it. Observational data, theoretical predictions, and advancements in technology enhance the understanding of the universe's early moments and its subsequent development. The signature of the Big Bang are :

Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation (CMB)
Hawking Radiation suggests there should be traces of radiation from the early universe. It is estimated the Big Bang occured 13.8 billion years ago. What astronomers see in the sky is not an actual representation of present day status because light takes time to reach Earth. That means the radiation is still observable in our times. The remnant of CMB would have appeared as a uniform glow detected from all directions in space. Scientists have been on the lookout for this. Arno Penzias and Robert Wilson were the first to spot this in 1965. The CMB provides a snapshot of the universe approximately 380,000 years after the Big Bang, when atoms first formed and light could travel freely.

Redshift of Galaxies
Redshifting is evidence of a still expanding universe after the Big Bang. The farther away a galaxy is, the faster it is moving away from us. This is in accordance with Hubble's Law.

Abundance of Light Elements
Predictions of the Big Bang Nucleosynthesis model suggest that the universe's early conditions allowed for the formation of light elements such as hydrogen, helium, and small amounts of lithium The observed ratios of these elements in the universe match the predictions made by the Big Bang Theory. The specific abundances of hydrogen (about 75%) and helium (about 25%) in the universe provide strong evidence supporting the Big Bang.

Large Scale Structure of the Universe
The distribution of galaxies and galaxy clusters shows a filamentary structure known as the "cosmic web." The evolution of these structures can be traced back to small fluctuations in density in the early universe, as seen in the CMB. The large-scale structure aligns with predictions from models based on the Big Bang, including the influence of dark matter.

Temperature of the Universe 
The current average temperature of the universe is about 2.7 K, corresponding to the CMB radiation. This temperature is consistent with a universe that has been expanding and cooling since the Big Bang.
The coolness of the universe today aligns with predictions of cooling following the initial hot phase.

Where the science is now as regards 'Creation of Universe'

So now we have this tiny dot from which the universe began based on the Penrose-Hawking-Elise theorums on singularity. Two questions arise.

First, how this singularity came about? Second, how did it expand to form the Universe the way it is today?

These are the deepest mysteries in modern cosmology. There are several ideas and hypotheses, but none that has been definitively proven. No one can explain pre-singularity or pre-Big Bang since the laws of physics do not work and no one knows how gravity would have worked. Any theory of causality from material is impossible since matter did not exist at this point.

There are various hypotheses, non-substantiated and science fiction material, basically models proposed in a way to circumvent the singularity state. I shall not go into it but just to mention names. These include Quantum Cosmology models, Quantum Fluctuations models, tunneling or the Hawking-Hartle "No Boundary" proposal, Multiverse Hypotheses and Eternal Inflation, Holographic Principle and Quantum Information, Cyclic Models, and Ekpyrotic models. All these are obfuscating our understanding of the nature of reality. Where is Occam's razor? 

Observational evidence of astronomers are no longer the ones pushing new knowledge about the birth of the universe. What's pushing the envelope is theoretical physics with models out of extreme concepts. Most notably it is coming from quantum cosmology or quantity gravity. This is basically using laws of physics to explain how the universe could have come into being out of singularity, even though quantum physics and laws of gravity do not apply at the point of Big Bang event. In simple language, what these thinkers are trying to do is to explain how the universe can come into existence out of singularity as a result of a mathematical equation!

General Relativity (large scale) - Quantum mechanics (small scale)

General relativity is the classical physics that deal with large-scale phenomena like stars, planets, galaxies, and the entire structure of the universe. Einstein's theories describes gravity as the curvature of spacetime caused by mass and energy. Massive objects like planets and stars warp the fabric of spacetime, and this curvature directs how objects move through space. His field equations predict motion of planets and stars, describes black holes, neutron stars and gravitational waves, and helps to understand the expansion of the universe.

Quantum mechanics is the physics about the behavior of matter and energy at the smallest scales, such as atoms, subatomic particles (electrons, protons, neutrons), and photons. Unlike classical physics, quantum mechanics deals with probabilities and uncertainty. Particles at this scale behave in ways that defy intuition, exhibiting wave-particle duality, superposition, and entanglement.

Queerness of small

Singularity is the state were spacetime curvature is infinitesimal and energy is so dense and hot. When it came into being, that is the Big Bang. It began its expansionary phase. For an infinitesimal small window of time of the Big Bang, quantum mechanics do not apply. This small window is measured in Planck's time which is a unit of measurement of sub-atomic levels. Planck's time is about 10-43 seconds (to the power of -43 means shifting the decimal 43 times to the left, that's how incredibly small this window timeframe is). In that window of time, the laws of physics breaks down. No one can explain what happened.

There are two basic concepts in smallness you need to understand:

Quantum fluctuations
In Quantum Field Theory (QFT), what we consider "empty space" is far from empty and is constantly active with quantum activity. Quantum fluctuations are temporary changes in the amount of energy at a specific point in space, arising due to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle which states that certain pairs of physical properties, like energy and time, cannot both be precisely known at the same time. These particles and antiparticles can spontaneously appear and disappear. They are a fundamental feature of quantum fields, which underlie all forces and particles in the universe. Thus at the quantum level, there is a violation of the conservation law of energy (energy cannot be created or destroyed) is violated where particles come into existence for very short times and then disappear.

Quantum fluctuations are essential to many physical phenomena, including the Casimir effect, Hawking radiation, and the structure of the early universe.

Wave-particle-duality
In quantum mechanics, tiniest particles like photons, electrons, exist in 2 states - in wave form or as particles (whether with mass or massless). They exist in a state of supersuposition when not observed, that is, they are both in wave and particle form at the same time.

You may have heard of the Shroendinger Cat. It is a mind experiment to explain this duality of existence. A cat is placed in a box together with some sort of poison or radioactive material. The box is sealed. Is the cat dead or alive? It can be said to be both dead and alive when it is not observed. It exists in 2 states at the same time. When box is opened and observed, then it assumes one state, either dead or alive.

It took me a long time to understand this, and it is not for want of grey matters. I not stupid what. I had misunderstood that when physicists use the word "observe" they do not mean someone looking at the particles. It means the particles are projected through a measuring device of sorts, something that can eject the medium such as photons or electrons individually.

In 1801 Thomas Young did the famous dual slit experiment on the wave nature of light. When light passes through a single slit, it spreads out and creates a diffraction pattern of the slit on a screen, with the brightest part in the center. But when light passes through two slits, it forms on the screen a pattern of several parallel slits, alternating with a light and dark tones.



Lights are photons. When it is shone through one slit, it is 'observed' and the photons behave as particles and land on the screen forming a pattern similar to the slit. When light is shone on 2 slits, it is not "observed" so the photons behave as waves and pass through both slits. As 2 waves pass through the slits, the waves hit each other. If the waves are in phase (crest meets crest or trough meets trough), it's called constructively interference, they enhance each other, creating bright spots on the screen. If they are out of phase (crest meets trough), it's called destructively interference, they cancel each other, creating dark spots.

Wave-particle duality is central to quantum mechanics, as it fundamentally describes the dual nature of matter and light at small scales. Its role in the origin of the universe is vital because the early universe was dominated by quantum phenomena. Understanding this duality helps explain how the universe transitioned from quantum fluctuations in the early moments of the Big Bang to the large-scale structure we observe today. Thus, wave-particle duality connects the behavior of the smallest particles to the formation of the cosmos itself.


The Mathematical Universe Hypothesis 

Wave Function
This is another concept one needs to understand. A wave function is a mathematical way to describe systems from a quantum perspective. Quantum theories deal with probabilities with different outcome configurations based on quantum laws. If certain parameter settings are pre-determined,or controlled, the wave function collapses, that is the outcome becomes deterministic. 

The universal wave function is a theoretical tool in quantum cosmology that describes the quantum state of the entire universe, particularly at its earliest moments. It suggests that the universe is not deterministic, but instead a vast sea of probabilities, with different configurations emerging based on quantum laws. What this means is theoretically, many universes could evolve from it, ours being one of them. (That's where the multiverse model comes from). The application of quantum mechanics to the universe’s beginning challenges classical ideas about causality and time. Instead of asking "What caused the Big Bang?" the wave function suggests that the universe’s origin might not require a classical cause, and could instead arise naturally from quantum mechanics, simply a matter of math.

The Mathematical Universe Hypothesis posits that the universe is not just described by mathematics, but is mathematics. In this view, all physical phenomena, including the Big Bang singularity, are manifestations of mathematical structures.

If this hypothesis is correct, the singularity came into being because it is an intrinsic mathematical feature of the universe's structure. The universe operates according to the fundamental equations of physics, and those equations lead naturally to singularities under certain conditions (such as the Big Bang or black hole formation).

This suggests that the singularity existed as a mathematical object before it manifested as a physical event in the universe. Therefore, mathematics doesn't just describe the singularity but brings it into being.

In this interpretation, mathematical causality refers to the idea that the physical universe and its behavior are determined by mathematical laws. Since the singularity is a solution to Einstein's field equations, which describe gravity and spacetime, the presence of a singularity could be seen as "caused" by the internal logic of mathematics itself.

The universe’s emergence from the Big Bang singularity, in this view, is less about an external cause and more about the unfolding of mathematical principles. The singularity exists because the equations of general relativity demand that such a state occurs under certain conditions, such as the collapse of mass into a black hole or the initial state of the Big Bang.

Several physicists are at the forefront of this hypothesis, such as Max Tegmark, Lawrence Krauss, John Archibald Wheeler and Bryce DeWitt. They are basically saying the Universe came out of nothing, and they can prove it mathmetically using quantum mechanics. 

The problem is these physicists need to prove an equation called the Wheeler-DeWitt Equation. This equation worked on the basis of quantum laws that throws out non-deterministic universal waves, that is, it provides undetermined possibilities of universes, one of it may just describe our universe. In order to get an outcome that describes only our Universe, the physicists must select certain conditions, or in quantum mechanics lingo, set the boundaries or constraints, and this will restrict the degree of mathematical freedom associated with the equation. This causes the collapse of the wave function to produce the solution pre-determined. In other words, it is the same as Eintein 'cheating' in the formulation of the Cosmological Force. The physicists set the boundaries in order for the equation to produce a wave function that describes only our universe.

Science or God?

So, instead of our Universe coming out of nothing, or coming out of material origin, we now have a third hypothesis of a mathematical equations as its origin, which is wierd. 

To get the wave function that best describes our universe, the physicists have to set the boundaries. This is huge at the philosophical level. What this means is it requires a 'mind', not just any mind, but a bloody brilliant mind. Did they just describe 'intelligent design'? Unless these physicists were present at the Big Bang, I don't see who could have set those boundaries.

So Science is saying it needs a 'mind' to tweak the operation of mathematics to produce a wave function that will create our universe, and using this hypothesis to argue against the theologists' position that an external mind, ie a Creator, is responsible for creating the universe.

There is a fundamental concept in scientific reasoning and philosophy of science called Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE). This principle posits that when faced with multiple competing hypotheses, the one that best explains the observed phenomena is preferred.

The causality for the origin of the universe has no material cause because at the event of the Big Bang there was no time, space, or matter to explain and no laws of physics. Mathematical hypotheses suggests there is a mind behind this. IBE would suggest the theological explanation is the most logical where an intelligent mind exterior to the system is responsible for the origin of the universe.

We seem to have come full circle. In ancient Greek cosmogony, the Pythagoreans had this concept of Monad, also know as The Absolute, the Supreme Being, divinity or the totality of all things. All things in the Universe came from Monad. 

Critics of religious belief, especially in the writings of atheists and agnostics, such as Richard Dawkins, in his book "The God Delusion", will always point to theologists invoking the 'God of the Gaps', as an explanation where empirical evidence cannot support a scientific position. They are quick to bear down on insults and disregard IBE as logical position. Those with theological inclinations, like James Tour, American chemist and nanotechnologist, have always said, while he believes in the Divine cause, as a scientist he cannot say science cannot prove it because who is to know 50-100 years later, a scientific explanation could be discovered. Tour finds no conflict in his position, because when that day arrives, he will just say in wonderment:

"Oh, so that's how HE did it!"


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Sunday, October 13, 2024

THE LAST WISH OF LEE WEI LING, LEE KUAN YEW AND CHINESE EMPERORS OF YORE



百善孝为先
Among all virtues, filial piety is the most important


It's no surprise the recent passing of Lee Wei Ling brings back the issue of the fate of the late Lee Kuan Yew's residence to hit social media again. LKY had wished that after his death, and after his daughter Wei Ling no longer resides there, 38 Oxley Road is to be demolished. Singaporeans understood, and respected LKY's well-known disdain for any monument or memorial of any kind in his name. The government of Singapore, under the premiership of Lee Hsien Loong, had made the decision to retain the house as a heritage site against the wishes of LKY. An acrimonius sibling fued arose with elder son Hsien Loong standing with the government decision, and Wei Ling and younger son Lee Hsien Yang adamant on honouring their father's dying wish. The disagreement has torn apart the family of Singapore's first Prime Minister. But I wonder in every Singaporean houshold where they have younger ones, how do they explain to their children. 

I wish for them the matter can be resolved and the surviving brothers can find closure. It is really sad that the matter has to come to the stage that a daughter had to speak from the grave through a request to her younger brother Hsien Yang to include in his eulogy an appeal to Singaporeans to help honour their father's wish for the demolition of the house. Try to wrap your mind around this. In the last couple of years battling progressive supranuclear palsy (a Parkinson-like illness) when death was imminent and with a ravaged body, her thought was on the fulfillment of her father's final wish for the demolition of the house. Some folks may be asking why is this such a big deal. Unless one appreciates Chinese culture, the point is lost. This has been a dagger at the heart of one of the highest moral values of Chinese culture - filial piety.

In ancient Chinese history, many emperors had their last wishes granted posthumously. Most of these wishes involved burial arrangements, succession plans, or political instructions. Some last wishes shaped the actions of their successors and affected the course of Chinese history. I thought it might be interesting to take a look at some of these.

Emperor Qin Shi Huang (259–210 BCE)

The first emperor of a unified China and founder of the Qin Dynasty, Shi Huang Ti wished to be buried with a vast army of terracotta warriors to protect him in the afterlife. His wish was granted, and the Terracotta Army was constructed in his tomb near Xi'an. This army of life-sized figures, consisting of soldiers, horses, and chariots, was discovered in 1974 and stands as one of the most remarkable archaeological finds in history. It must have cost the Treasury significantly, but the fiscal spending must also have increased their GDP as hordes of workers must have increased domestic consumption with their wages.

Emperor Wen of Han (203–157 BCE):

Emperor Wen of Han was known for his benevolence and frugal rule. His final wish left in a will was for a simple burial. He emphasized that there should be no extravagant funerary goods or large-scale constructions for his tomb. His son, Emperor Jing of Han, honored this request by ensuring a modest tomb with fewer adornments, aligning with his father's Confucian ideals of simplicity and restraint. Hmmm I hear an echo here somewhere.

Emperor Wu of Han (156–87 BCE)

Wu, one of the longest-reigning emperors of the Han Dynasty, was remorseful for certain military campaigns and extravagant spending toward the end of his reign. In his final years, he issued an edict to limit the power of court officials and reduce the financial burden on the people. His successor, Emperor Zhao of Han, honored this wish by implementing reforms that stabilized the economy, reduced military campaigns, and reduced taxes on the population.

Emperor Xian of Han (181–234 CE):

During the Three Kingdoms era, the last emperor of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Xian, was a puppet ruler under the power behind the throne, warlord Cao Cao. He was eventually forced to abdicate and the throne given to Cao Cao's son Cao Pi.. Xian was allowed to live as a noble. Not quite sure if that was due to the magnanmity of Cao Cao or a matter of appeasement to the remaining loyal officials. Emperor Xian’s request was to be buried with honor after his death.  Even though the Han Dynasty had ended, Cao Pi ensured that Xian was given a respectful posthumous title and burial.

Emperor Taizong of Tang (598–649 CE)

Taizong, one of the greatest emperors of the Tang Dynasty. He had a wish for his favorite general, Li Shiji, to help his son and successor, Emperor Gaozong, in matters of state after his death. After Taizong's death, Li Shiji faithfully served under Gaozong, fulfilling his former emperor's last request, helping the young Gaozong stabilise the empire.

Emperor Shunzhi of the Qing Dynasty (1638–1661 CE)

Shunzhi's deathbed wish was for his third son, the young Kangxi Emperor, to succeed him under the regency of trusted officials, including his own uncle, Oboi. The regents placed Kangxi on the throne at the age of 7 and helped him ride the throes of palace intriques and power struggles during his youth, thus maintaining stability till Kangxi eventually took control and became one of the most successful emperors in Chinese history.

Emperor Yongle of Ming (1360–1424 CE)

Yongle was one of the most influential emperors of the Ming Dynasty. he wanted his massive naval expeditions, led by Admiral Zheng He, continue after his death to project Chinese power and expand trade routes. For several years after Yongle's death, his successors continued his wish, allowing Zheng He to complete further voyages, although the expeditions were eventually halted by later emperors.

Emperor Hongzhi of Ming (1470–1505 CE)

Hongzhi was a careful and competent emperor. His dying wish was for his son, Zhengde, to maintain his reformist policies, reduce corruption, and care for the people. Emperor Zhengde respected his father’s legacy for a while. Unfortunately, he later turned dishonourable and became extravagant and irresponsible. So Hongzhi's wish was partially honoured

Emperor Guangxu of Qing (1871–1908 CE)

The hated Empress Dowager Cixi casted a powerful shadow over the last years of the Qing Empire. She was the effective power behind the throne. Emperor Guangxu was  largely controlled by her. Guanxi expressed a wish for reform and modernization having actively pushed for the Hundred Days’ Reform in 1898, seeking to modernize China’s political and educational systems. During his lifetime, Cixi stifled many of the emperor's reforms. After his death, honourable officials were the late reformers who eventually implemented several of his reforms whcih continued into the early Republican era. The shift toward modern governance and institutions aligned with his wishes.

THE EMPEROR IS DEAD. LONG LIVE THE EMPEROR


Baring no malice and within confines of legality, our sense of decency demands the dying wish of someone dear to be carried out as best we can. It is not just a matter of honouring the dead, but a message to the living of what encompasses responsibility and discipline. 


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Monday, October 7, 2024

NEESUN DORMA VS BODY - A MATTER OF VALUES OF CONSERVATIVES VS LIBERALS


"A man is known by the company he keeps." ...Aesop

Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris refuses to sit down for a serious interview with mainstream media, despite the fact these are friendly leftists who will only throw softball questions at her. Or more correctly, her handlers and the monied class of donors who hold the strings to the marionette do not want to expose her lack of cranium depth. More so than ever now that some, not many, but a few, in cable news media like CNN and MSNBC are beginning to ask serious questions and fact check Democrat lies.


Of all places, Harris turned up for an interview with a controversial podcaster in her show called "Call Her Daddy". The podcast offers a frank and often humorous perspective of modern dating, hookups, and relationships. It discusses sex in unfiltered and explicit manners.

At a recent rally, Harris had rapper Megan The Stallion perfrom her rap tune called 'Body". Critics say the composition empowering anthem celebrates body positivity, self-confidence, and the embrace of sexuality. That's overtly kind. The lyrics don't potray that. It has the "N" and the "F" words and explicit sexual overtones. It is so inappropriate that in her performance at the rally, Megan had to leave out probably 80% of the lyrics.


Apparantly Harris thinks a hook-up song with dancers twerking and jerking for grandmas and grandpas is meaningful for the ocassion. Heck, she thinks a VP pick of a governor who regulated that tampoons be placed in boys' dormitories in schools in his state is a good tandem. Don't understand these Liberals on a mission to collapse a country's culture.

On the other side of the aisle we have conservative values on full display. Trump returned to Butler, the place where he was almost assasinated on July 13. He wanted to be on the same spot where he was shot (but this time behind a protective bullet-proof glass. He said "Where was I ....." and continued from where he was interupted in July. Trump paid honour to Corey Comparatore, the lone supporter who lost his life 3 months ago. He consoled his family which gave them closure. The rally was graced by opera singer Christopher Maccio who sang with this power-filled song "How Great Thou Art".


Christopher closed the rally with his power rendition of "Neesun Dorma" at Butler. Trump seems to have chosen this song in several of his rallies. This song was also played at the closing of the Republican Party convention. For those who don't know this song, it is the last aria in the Guacomo Pucinni's opera play "Turandot". An aria is a solo vocal piece accompanied by instruments in an opera. Many may recall Luciano Pavarotti sang this in the 1990 World Cup in Italy. Even if you are no lover of opera songs, the famous ending will blow your mind. I have Andrea Bocelli's version here which I think is more powerful. (To enjoy the song, play it as loud as possible.)


For those who don't know, "Turandot" is an opera set in old Peking. A beautiful but cold and aloof Princess Turandot decrees that any suitor wishing to marry her must answer three riddles correctly or face execution. The crowd loves the challenges and the executions. An unknown Prince Calaf falls in love with Turandot and takes up the challenge. He solves the three riddles but the princess repulses at the thought of marrying him. Calaf gives her a way out with a challenge. If she can guess his name by the morning, he will not demand her promise of marriage. Thus the princess decrees "Neesun Dorma" (None Shall Sleep). Her subjects must all try to find out the name of Calaf. "Nessun Dorma" is sung by Calaf expressing his hope and triumph, anticipating victory even as the princess has ordered that no one in the kingdom shall sleep until his identity is discovered.

When Trump started using "Neesun Dorma" to close his rallies, some over-active minds started suggesting he was teasing the public. They surmised Trump was giving hint to a well known conspiracy theory. This one has it that Trump has all the evidence of wrong doing by the Deep Staters, he has laid traps for them and has caught many. He will bring justice in the end as these traitors will be persecuted.

And all these excitement because "Neesum Dorma" was played in the closing scenes of the 2002 movie "The Sum Of All Fears". The protagonists were played by Ben Affleck as a CIA agent and Morgan Freeman as his mentor. The story involved a failed assasination of US President to trigger a nuclear conflict with Russia by planting a nuclear bomb in Baltimore and framing terrorists. In the final scene, after the plot was uncovered, with "Deesun Dorma" on the soundtrack and US and Russian presidents signing an understanding agreement, state assassins executed the insurgents on both sides. Here is the closing scene clip (3 mins):


Some are suggesting "Neesun Dorma" is a message from Trump to expect what is to come. I think this is hogwash. When things look too crazy, I try to find the simplest explanation, the Occam's Razor. Melanie Trump had once remarked that her husband likes music. I will leave it at that.

I can hear Kamala Harris' cackle. For the high-falutin world of liberal elites cannot imagine Trump whom they see as a 'racist, narcissistic, uncouth, mysogyistic, facist' outsider can appreciate "Neesun Dorma". Conservatives on the other hand, understand why Harris appreciates the rap tune "Body". It's a difference of values and class.

The only message from Trump is obvious - Vincerò.


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Sunday, October 6, 2024

ISRAELI STRATEGY OF COMMAND AND CONTROL WARFARE


"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." 
Sun Tzi

The First Indochina War (1946-1954) was fought between the French colonialist forces and the Viet-Minh, a communist-led movement aiming for Vietnam’s independence. By 1950 the war was turning against the French. In October of that year, a large French force was in retreat from Cao Bang after a series of defeats in the Battle of Route Coloniale 4. The command group had gathered at HQ tent for a meeting when a Viet-Minh bomb by fluke exploded right on the spot. The whole command was wiped out. The force of about a battalion in strength was left with the last surviving corporal in charge. The incident serves to demonstrate how the sudden loss of command and control during a conflict can lead to chaos and catastrophe and collapse of an army.

The Israeli Defence Force has decimated the Command, Control and Communication of Hezbollah. Although Sun Tzi never mentioned directly about destroying the enemy's CCC, he talked about "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." It's left to be seen whether Hezbollah will collapse after this although my money is, like the Hydra, other heads will grow. In the short term however, chaos reigns in the enemy camp. Israel has the upper hand and it is left to see how IDF will take advantage of the situation. Having neutralised the head, will it go for the body now in confusion.

This is a strategy known as decapitation, or Command and Control Warfare (C2W).  It is a strategy of eliminating the enemy's Command, Control, and Communications which focuses on crippling the enemy’s ability to coordinate, organize, and make effective decisions. Let's examine a few examples here.

Six-Day War (1967)

Israel launched preemptive air strikes against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan to successfully take out air bases, military headquarters, and communication systems. The attacks were devastating, especially for Egypt, which lost the majority of its air force within the first few hours of the conflict. By crippling the command and communication networks, Israel achieved rapid victory, occupying key territories in just six days.

The Gulf War (Operation Desert Storm 1991)

The US-led coalition implemented a strategy that targeted Iraqi command and communication networks in the early stages of the air campaign. The coalition forces focused on hitting command centers, communication nodes, and infrastructure that allowed Saddam Hussein’s regime to coordinate military actions. Saddam Hussein and his field commanders could not communicate and Iraqi forces were left disorganized, unable to effectively respond to coalition maneuvers. Iraq fell within a matter of days as allied forces swept across the desert easily. The precision strikes on these key assets significantly degraded Iraq's ability to resist and led to the quick collapse of its defenses. Recall the set of playing cards the US Army distributed to troops to identify the most high-ranking members of the Iraqi government wanted, dead or alive. President Saddam Hussein was the Ace of Spade. All 52 were captured. By 2021, 11 had been released. The rest died. 

The Battle of Issus (333 BC)

The small army of  Alexander the Great faced the huge army of the great Persian Empire (today's Iran) under Darius III near Issus in 333 BC.  Alexander's strategy was to hit the heart of the Persian army where Darius III was located. By leading a cavalry charge directly at the Persian center, Alexander created chaos within the Persian ranks. When Darius fled the battlefield, the Persian command and control system collapsed which caused the entire Persian army to panic and break apart, as no one was able to issue new orders or rally the troops. The loss of command led to a decisive Macedonian victory. The strategy of focusing on eliminating the enemy leader to decimate their C2 was a hallmark of Alexander’s brilliance.

The Battle of Red Cliffs (208 CE)

During the era of  the Three Kingdoms period, there was a famous and pivotal battle fought between the allied forces of Liu Bei and Sun Quan against Cao Cao, the warloard who was the power behind the dying Han Dynasty. In the naval battle, Cao Cao had overwhelming numerical advantage but he had less naval warfare familiarity. Liu Bei’s strategist, Zhuge Liang, used cunning by launching a fire attack on his fleet. The fires caused a breakdown of command and control within Cao Cao’s ranks which led to a devastating defeat. This was a pivotal battle which halted Cao Cao’s expansion and preserved the autonomy of Liu Bei and Sun Quan. Fame of the The Romance Of The Three Kingdoms novel may have blurred story telling and historical facts, but it illustrates the importance of the decapitation strategy in war.

The Battle of the Teutoburg Forest (9 CE)

This was a very important battle between three Roman legions led by Publius Quinctilius Varus and some disparate group of small Germanic tribes led by Arminius. One Roman legion was about 6,000 men. Arminius had experience fighting for Romans and he knew how they fight. He cunningly chose his battle ground, in the forest of Teutoburg. He lured the Romans into the forest where they were totally annihilated. Today the forest is thought to be haunted by the ghosts of Roman soldiers. This was a battle that stopped the northward expansion of Rome and drew a line that prevented German from being assimilated by Italian culture. Romans used to deploy in large Phalanx formations in which men fought shoulder-to-shoulder where command, control and communication was easy. In later years they learnt the Phalanx formation was difficult in certain terrains and transited to use the maniple system. This was basically breaking into smaller independent units but still held together in checkerboard formations called quincunx. It allowed for more flexibility and mobility but at the expense of stretching communication. Once the three legions entered the forest, the dense woods made communication extremely difficult. Varus and his Romans were slaughtered by the Germans' hit and run guerrila warfare tactic.


I wonder if our Generals are paying attention to current events in the Middle East. Will the command and control warfare of IDF against Hezbollah be a watershed moment.  A lesson is being played out in real time that ought to make into the library of SAFTI under the annals of historical military strategies.


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Friday, October 4, 2024

MRT EAST-WEST LINE MIS-HAP - IT'S THE BALL BEARINGS, STUPID


AI rendention of a dislodged axle box and mis-aligned bogie being dragged along.


So we have the spectacle of another train mis-hap on Sep 25 and the standard knee-jerk emotional reactions. Within minutes the same cacophony is all over town. Predictably, the regular whipping boys of generals and million-dollar salaried ministers get paraded on social media. I think it is alright for Singaporeans to speak up, but be adults in the room. By all means, say something useful and meaningful. Spare us all the nonsense speak. The public ought to show concern and want some answers. However, verbal bashing of folks many times removed from the chain of command is juvenile. It is alright for the minister and other top honchos to turn up at the scene, indeed they need to. But it is not alright for them to take it as a photo-op and take selfies for their own Facebook posts. I think humility of those in charge is sorely absent in Singapore in the way we see displayed in Japan.

I congratulate Straits Times for this report on Sep 27 and updated Sep 30 which described the event and the damages very well. We have all been told the fault points to an axle box which had been dislodged which in turn caused the bogie to be dragged along under the carriage, damaging tracks and trackside devices. We have been shown the 'what' but not the 'how' and 'why'. In this light I humbly blog, not as a pseudo-technical expert, but sharing what we can learn from the experience of others.


The axle is a solid rod that connects and aligns two wheels, enabling them to rotate together. The axle box is the protective housing containing bearings that support the axle and allow it to rotate smoothly, while also supporting the train's weight and protecting the axle from damage.

The bogie is a specific undercarriage assembly located beneath the main body of the vehicle and consists of wheels, axles, suspension, and sometimes motors or brakes. The bogie provides support, suspension, and stability while allowing the train to move smoothly along the tracks. Its primary role is to distribute the coach's weight, absorb shocks and vibrations, navigate curves and for powered bogies, provide braking and traction.

There is an underframe or car body, which sits atop the bogie. This supports the body work of the coach just like the chasis of a vehicle.

It's the bearings, stupid! 

As the 1st-gen trains are older Kawasaki Heavy Industries models, they use plain bearings. Most modern trains now use roller bearings (either cylindrical or tapered) which offer lower friction, greater load-bearing capacity, and better durability compared to the old plain bearings. The critical function of the bearing is to reduce friction between the rotating axle and the fixed frame of the train.

You have heard the "Diddy" Combs bombshell story in US. He stores 1,000 bottles of lubricants in his mansion for his regular wild parties for celebrities and high society names. If anything needs lubricants, lots of them, it's them bearings. They need to be lubricated to reduce friction and prevent wear. Regular maintenance is required to replenish the lubricant to ensure the longevity of the bearings and reduce heat from friction. As the old plain bearings have higher friction, they require more lubrication.

Exogenous contaminants such as dust, dirt and moisture can also increase friction with the bearings. The axle box prevents these contaminants from entering. Leakage or poor box maintenance may allow contaminants to enter.

Bearing overload is when the trains carry loads that exceed the design capacity of the axle box and bearings. Excessive loads cause higher rolling resistance and increase friction between the bearing components, resulting in overheating. Weight overload is more an issue with cargo trains.

Misalignment of axle box with the axle or wheelset can happen due to poor maintenance, mechanical failure or damage to axle box components,and overheating of bearings. When this happens, it can cause uneven pressure on the bearings leading to more stress and increased friction.

There are other causes for overheated roller bearings, including fatigue cracking, water damage, mechanical damaging, a loose bearing or a wheel defect.

So what is the problem with increased friction of the bearings. Friction causes heat build-up in the axle box, a situation called a 'hotbox'. This is very dangerous because overheating causes bearing seizure where bearings lock up and stop rotating. This is extremely dangerous because the axle and wheels cannot rotate freely, leading to even more friction and heat generation. A seized bearing can cause the axle rod to seize which causes the wheels to be dragged. This leads to severe damage to both the train and the tracks and possible derailment as well as fire to coach and surrounding equipment.

What are the telltale signs of a hotbox

With overheated bearings there is of course increased temperature. But this is unlikely to be noticed even by passengers.

Over heating leads to smoke, an acrid burning odor, or visible signs of burnt grease or oil.

Overheated bearings cause increased friction which causes excessive noise, including grinding or squealing sounds.

Once overheated, the increased friction. causes vibrations, indicating that the bearings are not functioning smoothly.

Overheated bearings may lead to hotbox fires

Smoke was reported in the Buona Vista mis-hap. Passengers were unlikely to notice the heat. The passengers in the affected coach most likely heard the squealing noises and felt the vibration. I have not seen or heard anyone talking about this in social media. Has anyone spoken to someone who was in that particular coach?

A chain reaction from a hotbox

Overheating (often called a hotbox) causes the bearings to seize, which in turn could seize the axle rod  causing the whole wheelset or bogie to be thrown out of alignment and dragged along. This results in significant friction between the train and the track and tremendous vibration which will cause other components such as suspension systems and clamps or parts that hold the axle box to collapse. The axle box then get dislodged. If the train is moving at high speed, the train could derail. As the axle box and bogie get dragged along, serious damage will be caused to the rails and sidetrack equipment.

In most cases, as hotbox problem builds up, it is usually at the bends when dislodgement of axle box and bogie occurs. In this particular incident, it is worth nothing the severe damages near to the Buona Vista station and the turn into the Ulu Pand depot. These are the bends where the train switched tracks. Three switch gears were damaged.

It is possible the axle box could get dislodged without a hotbox incident. The fault could be the parts that hold the axle box in place could be broken due to wear and tear or damage. I think this is less likely because these parts are easily observable in regular inspections.

What history shows:

These are some of the examples where tragic train crashes were due directly to hotbox incidents.

Coxville Train Wreck (USA, 1910)
Wheaton Train Wreck (USA, 1924)
Altoona Train Derailment (USA, 1950)
Białośliwie Train Accident (Poland, 1983)
Amundsen Express Derailment (Norway, 1990)
Severn Tunnel Rail Accident (UK, 1991)
Zeebrugge Freight Train Derailment (Belgium, 1999)
Pécrot Train Collision (Belgium, 2001)
Liaoning Freight Train Derailment (China, 2010)
East Palestine Train Derailment (USA, 2023)

There have been many other train accidents which were not due directly to hotbox and axle boxes but investigations suggested they may have played a role in damaging tracks that led to the disasters.

Use of sensors

In modern trains, temperature sensors are often installed in axle boxes to detect overheating and trigger alarms.. These 1st-gen trains do not have such sensors.

Some train systems install heat detection sensors on the tracks at intervals of a few miles. These allow undercarriage heat situation to be detected and real time data to be fed to control systems.

Trackside hotbox detection sensors have been found to be ineffective in a study in 2019 by Constantine Tarawneh et al. The “major shortcoming” of these detectors is that they can’t distinguish between healthy and defective bearings, and temperature alone is not a good indicator of bearing health. Moreover, temperature is reactive in nature. That means by the time the sensors pick up a high temperature in a bearing, it’s too late, the bearing is already in its final stages of failure.

In the East Palestine Train Derailment (USA, 2023) hotbox sensors detected that a wheel bearing was heating up miles before it eventually failed and caused the train to derail. But the detectors didn’t alert the crew until it was too late. 30 miles outside East Palestine a sensor recorded a temperature of 38 degrees F above ambient and did not set off alarms because the operator's threshold was set at 170 degrees F above ambient. 10 miles later the next sensor recorded 103 degrees F above ambient.  Video of the train recorded in that area shows sparks and flames around the rail car. Still, no alert went to the crew. 20 miles later just as the train reached East Palestine, a hot box detector recorded the bearing’s temperature at 253 degrees F above ambient and sent an alarm message instructing the crew to slow and stop the train. That's when it derailed.

Tarawneh et al researchers developed a new system to better detect a bearing issue long before a catastrophic failure. The key is measuring the bearing’s vibration in addition to its temperature and load. Tarawneh sensors can be placed on board each rail car, near the bearing, to continuously monitor its vibration throughout its travels. The vibration of a failing bearing begins intensifying thousands of miles before a catastrophic failure. The Tarawneh sensor is a sort of accelerometer on a bearing that monitors vibration levels. The minute a defect happens in the bearing, the accelerometer will sense an increase in vibration, and that could be, in many cases, up to 100,000 miles before the bearing actually fails.

Costs of installing the Tarawneh technology device on every coach is an issue. Some suggest the alternative of installing sidetrack acoustic devices that can monitor vibration and noises.


The Investigative Panel of experts have an important job on their plate. Some of the areas they need to look into are :

* Was the OEM standard of maintenance of the ball bearings followed or did the regime change because cost considerations got in the way of trying to find a balance between over- and under- maintenance.
* Although load is not so much an issue in passenger trains, did a system designed for 3 million population create fatal stress on bearings serving 6 millions. SMRT trains has a remarkable 3 minute turnaround time. Does this increase stress on the bearings.
* Since the 1st gen trains do not have heat sensors on the axle box, are there trackside hotbox detection sensors? 
* The tracks and trackside equipment damages have all been replaced. These are all visible damages at the final stages of hotbox where the bearings have degraded, the axle box dislodged and the bogie collapsed. During this stage, severe vibrations and uneven movement of the wheels caused significant damage to the rail, such as deep gouges, cuts, or railhead deformation. However, as the study on the East Palestine incident shows, bearing heating started some 30 miles earlier. As bearing gets heated, friction increased and bearings degrade. This leads to bearing seizure which then degrades the axle box and the axle rod. This caused misalignment of wheels which damage and degrades the rails. In other words, the rails kilometres eastward of Buona Vista could have been stressed and degraded. The panel needs to determine how far back the tracks need to be stress tested.
* To confirm the new generation trains indeed come with hotbox detection sensors.
* To consider installation of Tarawneh new technology vibration detector in train cars.


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